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Amph The 2022 Box Office Blood Booster

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 26, 2021.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    A lot of people saw it over the holiday break that year and it was quite successful- but if they came away from that with a less-than-positive view of the film, that may not work to the sequel's favor. Or, at the very least, have a view of the film that they wouldn't favor over other event films if having to choose between the two. Which is not to say the sequel won't improve over the original by looking at the first film's shortcomings and either addresses them or, alternatively, doubles down on what did work to continue to cancel those concerns out.

    But, even if there is disagreement with that analysis, it's important to contextualize Aquaman 1's success against its competition: the second week of Spider-Verse, the second week of a PG-13 Deadpool 2 reissue, the second week of a bombing Mortal Engines, and the first weeks of Bumblebee, Mary Poppins 2 and a WWI documentary.

    The only real overlap in competition there was with Spider-Verse (even Bumblebee was a smaller scale family film by nature) and that film only did a fraction of the business AQ1 did. There was nothing on the scale of an Avatar, Star Wars or Middle Earth film opening near it, let alone on the same day (this was the year Iger forced Solo into May, which left an opening AQ1 took advantage of).

    Add in the handicap from the loss of 3D and IMAX screens and that's significant cause of concern for the film, even if you think the original is a good movie. Especially since superhero films tend to be more front-loaded (so those premium screens are much more important) than the type of long-run success Avatar had (and is presumably aiming to replicate).
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
  2. Juliet316

    Juliet316 Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Apr 27, 2005
    And she's a lying liar who lies, when it comes to domestic abuse
     
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  3. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    We still have a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels... :(

     
  4. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Well, considering the box office has only been truly active for less than half of the year, a 61% drop sounds about right, actually.
     
  5. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Doesn’t the new movie also serve as the pilot for a new TV series about the later adventures of the house?
     
  6. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

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    Sep 19, 2002
    No Way Home had the third highest Christmas Day total ever. Considering everything that is going on, that is absolutely incredible. With decent enough legs, it can wind up in the Top 15 domestically easily.
     
  7. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    I’d think the holiday boost will end on its own before any omicron restrictions are in place.
     
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  8. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

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    Oct 13, 2003
    If there was never a COVID pandemic, I wonder how Spider-Man NWH would be doing.
     
  9. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    1. It’s great on its own merits and would have made $1.3 billion or more absent a pandemic

    2. it was just good enough to become a symbol of going back to the movies otherwise it would have performed closer to other recent spider movies.

    I’d lean toward 1
     
  10. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    If there had not been a pandemic, it would have been set after MOM, not rewritten to be set before (to reflect MOM having come out first). Coming out only 2 months after MOM may have lessened the impact and appeal that having Strange in the film as a draw had, versus now, where Spidey is literally being used as ad for MOM.
     
  11. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Like any films like this, it's a perfect storm. Film that had a lot of buzz going into it that is not only getting great reviews but also tremendous WOM. Combined that with a optimal window for releasing both in terms of date + virtually no competition and you have a recipe for a runaway hit.
     
  12. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    And let’s not forget that magic number of 20 years for nostalgia since the original Spider-Man and the adults who were children / teens 20 years ago wanting to see it again.


    I think Spidey being released first will help MOM. Now MOM is a follow up to both WandaVision and Spider-Man.
     
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  13. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

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    Sep 19, 2002
    @Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid I agree and if everything goes as we hope in terms of the pandemic, May will be where we really have moved beyond the Omicron Surge or we better have therefore I think there will be even less hesitation to be at the movies. And being a early May release will help too since people will be in up for a movie then but come Memorial Day weekend they will be looking to get out of town much like we saw this past May.
     
  14. TiniTinyTony

    TiniTinyTony JCC Super Bowl Pick 'Em Winner star 7 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2003
    2022 interested list...
    1. Scream -- interested but probably won't go to theaters
    2. Uncharted -- cautious optimistic
    3. The Batman -- last trailer looked awesome
    4. Morbius -- will see eventually but still need to see Venom 2
    5. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore -- curious if this will breathe some life into this tired series. I really hope it does
    6. Doctor Stranger in the Multiverse of Madness -- super excited for this
    7. Top Gun: Maverick -- really hoping this doesn't disappoint. I want a fun story, just not technical feats of Tom Cruise craziness
    8. Jurassic World: Dominion -- I still need to watch Jurassic World 2 even though I heard it was not good
    9. Pixar's Lightyear -- looks really good
    10. Thor: Love and Thunder -- yes, please
    11. Black Adam -- eventually will see this out of curiosity
    12. Mission: Impossible 7 -- series usually doesn't disappoint as I've mostly enjoyed the others
    13. Spider-man: Across the Spider-Verse (Pt 1) -- high expectations for this one
    14. DC's The Flash -- only looking forward to this because of Keaton's Batman
    15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever -- looking forward to where they take this story
    16. Creed III -- still need to see Creed II
    17. Aquaman 2 -- eventually will see this out of curiosity
    18. Avatar 2 -- we'll see...
    19. Super Mario Bros. The Movie -- sleeper hit of the year? LOL
     
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  15. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @TiniTinyTony Ironically I have a very similar list but honestly? I will maybe see 3-4 movies at the theaters this upcoming year and that is pushing it. The pandemic really enforce it as a home viewer for all intense and purposes to say nothing of enjoy it more now combined with being a married dad of three young kids. I was trending that way anyway but now I am definitely one that prefers to stay at home and stream it even if it's a movie I really really really excited for. "The Batman" is right now my #1 movie I want to see this year (at least right now) but does that mean I will go to the theater and see it come March? Most likely no especially it does not look like a movie I can take the boys to go see over spring break later in the month. HBO Max as already announced "The Batman" will be available for streaming on April 19th. I can totally wait six weeks to go see it. The only movie I can say we will definitely see in the theater this year (unless the pandemic is still bad) is "Lightyear" since it's a movie all five of us can go see and want to. Perhaps "Super Marios Brothers" since it's supposed to come out around the holidays and that could be a good family Christmas movie. But other then that I think it will not be much. The boys are really getting into MCU movies so perhaps I will take them to go see one of them but I feel bad since my daughter is really old enough for them and again I can wait on everything else. "Top Gun: Maverick" was a movie my childhood friends and I planned to go see together when it was supposed to have come out two years ago as a mini reunion but nobody is interested now in doing that especially it is supposed to come out Memorial Day weekend as almost all of them plan on being out of town whether they live here or not.

    I must say I like this year's slate way better then 2021 and am looking forward to seeing a lot of movies this year just again will be streaming almost all of them.
     
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  17. TiniTinyTony

    TiniTinyTony JCC Super Bowl Pick 'Em Winner star 7 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2003
    @Luke02 I ended up watching 18 new movies in 2021, and I wanted to go to the theater as little as possible as well. I was glad to watch what I could on HBOMax, Netflix, or Disney+ (without paying a premium). Ultimately, I went to the theater to see 7 of them: Raya, Quiet Place 2, Black Widow, Shang Chi, Eternals, Ghostbusters, and Spider-man.

    I definitely feel like The Batman will be a theater trip for sure as well as most of the Marvel movies, but if I didn't feel safe I would recommend staying home, especially for the sake of your family.
     
  18. Jabba-wocky

    Jabba-wocky Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    May 4, 2003
    3. It was the first Spiderman movie with actual Spiderman (read: Tobey Maguire), which is why it performed close to Spiderman 2.

    This is the actual correct answer.
     
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  19. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    Every Spider-Man movie has featured an actual Spider-Man, but SMNWH is the first movie ever
    to feature all 3 big-screen Spider-Men - as well as half a dozen Spider-Man villains.
     
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  20. Jabba-wocky

    Jabba-wocky Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    May 4, 2003
    In point of fact, several films featured Iron Man Jr, and two more featured. . .I honestly don't know what that was. There were only three Spiderman films before now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2022
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  21. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

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    May 10, 2001
    Yeah, I don't think the rest of the world shares that view, but whatever floats your boat. :p
     
  22. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

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    Nov 12, 2012
    Box office prediction 2022 - COVID-19 officially enters endemic and therefore James Cameron gets to be the saviour of cinema and box office juggernaut by Avatar 2 release. Cameron wins again!
     
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  23. TiniTinyTony

    TiniTinyTony JCC Super Bowl Pick 'Em Winner star 7 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2003
    Question - Why Scream (2022) in January? Is it destined for failure regardless of pandemic?

    Scream (1996) and Scream 2 were in December.
    Scream 3 was February and Scream 4 was March -- which IIRC Scream 3 was the way less successful than 1 & 2. I never saw 4.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2022
  24. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Probably because they didn't want to go up against Halloween Kills and the rest of 2021 was too packed for it to have a chance. And, as you point out, the series has primarily been released in the first quarter of the year in the past.

    Plus, the only opportunity it really had to jump out of that window would have been with Scream 4 when it released in Apr '11- as the original trilogy was released closer together and would have kept the same general release window to mimic the success of the first, while S4 had had enough time pass that it could have shifted the release window, in theory, if they had wanted to (which, they kinda did, if by only about a month)

    But S4 released between the two most dominant seasonal Halloween franchises of the past 20 years- between the end of the original run of Saw films (Saw 7 being Oct 2010) and the rise/height of the Paranormal Activity films (PA3 being Oct 2011). So, if S4 had come out sooner for Halloween '10 or delayed to Halloween '11, it would have been utterly eclipsed by either one of those films.

    As for failure- it's apparently tracking very well in projections and is expected to have the best opening of the franchise, in the $35-40m range, topping Scream 3 and being about $20m more than Scream 4.

    (Oh, and Scream 3 did about as good as the first two films- only about $10-12m less worldwide. It was 4 that did about $60m less than that).

    Still, one thing is for certain: not calling this film 5cream is an utter failure on their part. ;)
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2022
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  25. JEDI-RISING

    JEDI-RISING Chosen One star 6

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    Apr 15, 2005
    i saw 7 films at the box office in the second half of the year. mostly good. i don't think i loved any of them though.