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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2023.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    The Blood Bath began in 2015...
    The rain of the Bloodshower poured through 2016...
    With the Bloodsplatter staining 2017...
    And washed away by the Blood Ocean in 2018....
    To consume the Blood World in 2019...
    A world that, in 2020, found itself orbited by the dreaded Blood Moon...
    ...but then the Blood Moon got sick and was forced into the Blood Quarantine...
    Then, the battle to save the theater industry began with the Blood Vaccine in 2021...
    And its battle continued through the Blood Booster of 2022...
    A resuscitation of an industry necessitating the use of the 2023 Blood Bag...which then took form as the 2023 Blood Barbie...
    But now the industry is in need of new blood, ordering forth the 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment!!!

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Some Notable Releases:
    Jan: The Beekeeper, I.S.S., Mean Girls (musical), Night Swim, Soul (1st theatrical release),
    Feb: Argyle, Bob Marley: One Love, Land of Bad, Lisa Frankenstein, Madame Web, Out of Darkness, Turning Red (1st theatrical release)
    Mar: The American Society of Magical Negroes, Dune: Part Two, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, Imaginary, Kung-Fu Panda 4, Luca (1st theatrical release), One Life, Rayman's Big Movie
    Apr: Civil War, The First Omen, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
    May: The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Garfield Movie, The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, IF: Imaginary Friends, The Strangers: Chapter 1
    Jun: Bad Boys 4, The Bike Riders, Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1, Inside Out 2, A Quiet Place: Day One
    Jul: Deadpool 3, Despicable Me 4, Project Artemis, Twisters, Maxxine
    Aug: Alien: Romulus, Borderlands, The Crow, Harold and the Purple Crayon, Horizon: An American Saga - Part 2, Trap
    Sept: Beetlejuice 2, Transformers One, Wolfs
    Oct: Joker: Folie a Deux, Venom 3, Smile 2, Terrifier 3
    Nov: Alto Knights, The Amateur, Gladiator 2, Wicked: Part One
    Dec: Kraven the Hunter, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Mufasa: The Lion King, Nosferatu, Sonic the Hedgehog 3

    Looking at the year, it's going to be a unique one, with very few AAA franchise entries and a handful of AA franchises trying to build-out. Filled in with a lot of one-off films that may get some acclaim but don't strike me as the type to truly break out. And that's going to make the year very difficult to predict compared to the last decade (especially the first half of the year). Whatever does break out will likely be a surprise to everyone until closer to release.

    Civil War is an interesting wildcard. I'm wondering if the "too close to reality" theme will be a draw of morbid curiosity (like true crime genres) or a repellent to those seeking to get away from reality. Borderlands, Rayman and Sonic 3 will be notable tests for the recent trend of good-to-great video game adaptations and seeing if that continues forward.

    I think the Top 10 of 2024 will include: Mufasa, Despicable Me 4, Deadpool 3, Joker 2, Venom 3, Inside Out 2, Dune Part Two, Godzilla x Kong, Apes 4 and maybe Twisters.

    Top 5 Wildcards: Bad Boys 4, Furiosa, Kung-Fu Panda 4, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, LOTR Rohirrim.


    Also worth noting that, due to the strike delays and such, this will be the first year (excluding the 2020 & 2021 pandemic years) since 2006 to not have a Marvel film released on Marvel Weekend at the end of April/first week of May (X3 came out on Memorial Day Weekend in 2006 instead). And it will be the only year besides 2005 to not have a Marvel film released in May since the Marvel Weekend tradition began in 2002.

    In the past quarter-century of cinema since Blade launched the wave of Marvel film adaptations in theaters (sorry Howard, no wave for you), the only years (including both pandemic years) to not include a Marvel film release were 1999 and 2001. So that streak remains unbroken.

    (as presently announced, Fantastic Four will return Marvel films to Marvel Weekend in 2025)
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2024
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  2. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    I predict No Superhero Franchise fatigue for Deadpool 3, Venom 3 and Joker 2 (the movies about anti-hero/bad guys, 2 of which are R-rated). All other franchises, watch the heck out. Maybe, uh, Wicked Part 1 as the sleeper success? Unknown about Mean Girls (2024) version as it is a beloved classic but any and all ads are hiding that it's a musical, it just sorta looks like a remake. Nobody likes to sell musicals as musicals anymore.

    Anyway, Dune Part II definitely out-grosses the first one. Maybe a double shot!
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
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  3. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Indeed. Bizarre trend.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. AutumnLight91

    AutumnLight91 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jun 17, 2018
    I have severe reservations about Wicked...like why break it into 2 movies to accommodate more things from the book when you were just adapting the play? It didn't need to broken up...at all.

    Plus the cast, and some controversy behind the scenes...yeah no good expectations for it
     
  5. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    I don't think anythings hitting $1 billion this year, or even in the $800M range.

    Inside Out 2 is going to be a real litmus test for Disney/Pixar. The first one did great and was incredibly well received. I think it still has a good base too over time. For a wide variety of reasons, Disney can't get the younger audience back to the theater though. If this can't do well, they should just stop everything until Frozen III.
     
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  6. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    After 2023, the industry should look at that menu for 2024 and be uneasy.

    Maybe they can rush some stuff delayed by the strike to the finish line and get it in.

    It is going to be a rough year.
     
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  7. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Deadline is predicting probably uncontroversially that 2024 total box office will be significantly down relative to 2023, due to strike fallout affecting the calendar, but the break from many of the big franchises is just what audiences need.

    The trailers for the new Ghostbusters are the best the franchise has ever done. Just from the point of view of massive trailer appeal I think it could have one of the better opening weekends of the year even if it ultimately underperforms.

    Universal won 2023 but Sony is on a roll making better superhero movies than anyone else. I thought the webwoman timelooping Dakota Johnson trailer was really good too. If Frozone Empire and the remake of Next starring Dakota Johnson as Nick Cage do well their year could be pretty great.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
  8. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Also special thanks to @The2ndQuest for your wildly successful box office blood franchise. Happy New Year!
     
  9. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    I'm interested in Joker 2's performance (despite having no interest in the film itself) because, yeah, that first one made approximately all of the money on a thin budget, but the budget has tripled and now we're post-pandemic. Do people still love Joker or was that a time and place thing you can't recapture? I honestly have no idea how that film is going to do, and that's exciting.
     
  10. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    We already know Avatar 3 unless delayed another year will be the top movie of 2025, but 2024 is a mystery to me. I don't see anything on the calendar that looks like a shoe-in for $1 billion worldwide. I know no one expected Barbie or even SMB to take the year, so anything is possible, but what looks like a surprise cultural event film on this calendar? Deadpool 3 and maybe the Quiet Place prequel look like the closest things to a guaranteed hit, but that may be just prepandemic thinking.

    Another great trailer: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - just absolutely traileriffic.

    It's another year where apart from Dune, the things I'm most looking forward to are streaming: the live action Last Airbender and Fallout series.

    The first post of this thread was the first I've heard about the animated Lord of the Rings spinoff movie. That has all the ingredients to be one of the year's biggest flops.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
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  11. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Going by the House of Gucci promotional campaign, I'm surprised we aren't getting stories about how Lady Gaga tried to tattoo clown makeup to her face or that she "really fell in love" with Joaquin Phoenix because she is a Serious Actress who deserves that Oscar.
     
  12. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I'm not convinced anyone really liked Joker. I'm convinced people thought they were supposed to like it and so pretended to their friends that they though it was good. Joker 2 should fail on those grounds: deliberately watching another performance like that is just too big a chore for most people.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
  13. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I don't think that's possible. It's not the backhalf of the year that needs building out, and nothing is gonna get rushed in time to make the first half.

    [​IMG]

    AQP films have been well received and had surprisingly large openings for mid/low-budget fare. But they've never had big final grosses. The first two topped out just below and just above $300m. I don't think a prequel by a different director is gonna explode the appeal much further. Definitely not into billion buck territory.

    As for the animated film, that's something WB/New Line has been planning for a long time. I want to say it was first rumored sometime around The Hobbit, though not officially announced until 3 or 4 years ago (when the rights were being divided up to things). They made a big deal about it being tied to the trilogy, with one of the trilogy writers consultinf and at least one actor reprising their role.
     
  14. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    We'll see how it goes.

    From that list, right now I'm most interested in:
    * Dune 2
    * the anime LOTR War of the Rohirrim
    * mayybeee Inside Out 2

    The rest will wait for streaming and/or reviews and hype.


    It's been in production for a while now (about 3-4 years by time it releases next December) and pre-production even longer. It seems a lot of fans are interested in the Anime take on it, and it covering a new story, with New Line Cinema still involved too.
    The voice cast looks good too, with a reprise from Eowyn's Miranda Otto (presumably as narrator).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings:_The_War_of_the_Rohirrim
    I also don't think an Anime movie would be as expensive to make as most other movies on that list.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
  15. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    I wouldn't sleep on animated LOTR, Spider-Verse proves animation can crossover into adult fans (and the good showing of Boy and the Heron was that too) So just stuff that trailer with LOTR war stuff with a few giant trolls and you got a potential hit
     
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  16. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    The release schedule is pretty dire. Of those I recognize, I am only really looking forward to Furiosa and KotPotAot. I am ambivalent regarding the new LotR movie which I had forgotten was a thing; I hope it doesn't feel as empty as Amazon's effort.
     
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  17. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    As one of the people who personally loved Joker (yes, we do exist, Ken), I still came out of my first viewing of it expecting it to not be a hit. I told a friend that I loved it and thought it was great, but I expected that even audience members who liked it wouldn't be interested in watching it again because it was so oppressive and unpleasant at times. I did not think it was the kind of movie that would produce people going to the theater multiple times to see it. I was clearly wrong about that. I think tripling the budget for the sequel wasn't a smart move and I suspect that, with the novelty factor removed and the world in a different time and place, the sequel will not be nearly as big a hit and could potentially be a flop. But I was super-wrong about the first one, even as someone who really, really liked the movie. So, yeah, this one is a mystery to me as well. I'm definitely on the side of "it's not going to do well," but I'm more than usually cautious about it with this movie.
     
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  18. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    you forgot Dune....
     
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  19. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    I didn't do what must be Dune. :(
     
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  20. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    I don't know...I could see a Christmas release being pushed up to a summer slot.

    Maybe something in the Spring 2025 window getting a "hurry post production" to get a fall 2024 release...particularly if they think they have a chance in award season.

    With the release schedule looking like this, I bet lots of producers are thinking "If I can get this film into theaters before next New Years, we've got an 2025 Oscar nomination in the bag".
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
  21. A Chorus of Disapproval

    A Chorus of Disapproval Head Admin & TV Screaming Service star 10 Staff Member Administrator

    Registered:
    Aug 19, 2003
    Nosferatu remake for Christmas is a bold move. It's as though they are marketing it directly to me.
     
  22. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Madme WebBillion. Mark it down!

    [​IMG]
     
  23. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    A limited winter release for awards season, sure. Nothing that will be a box office hit to a degree that it would elevate the year, though.

    Looking at what we know about 2025 already: Cap 4 and/or Thunderbolts would have stayed in 2024 if they could have. MI8 isn't going to surrender a summer 2025 release window for a fall/winter 2024 one. The Batman 2 isn't until deep into 2025, so that's ruled out. Avatar has claimed Dec 2025 (and no one in their right mind would ever move it from that slot), and horror sequels like Black Phone 2 (June) and M3GAN 2.0 (Jan) know not to throw themselves into packed holiday or competitive seasonal timeframes.

    The only major thing I see that seems plausible is the live action Snow White being brought back from March 25 to holiday 24- but there's no way they're going to have Snow White and Mufasa out around the same time, and the live action Disney remakes outside of Lion King have generally done better in that spring window, so I also don't see that happening.

    It also has apparently the advantage of being based more directly on supplemental content from the books, which assuages some fan complaints over Rings of Power (ie: no matter how good Rings of Power ended up being, there are Tolkien fans that would always dismiss it as "fan fiction" for altering details/timelines or adding/expanding on content/cast, etc).

    Not to mention that if it's a musical, you have the changing of genres to one that may not appeal to the same audiences that first did.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
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  24. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    I had actually somehow forgotten that it's a musical. Yeah, I'm definitely on the "it's going to flop" side of things now that you're reminded me of that.
     
  25. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    If current advertising trends are any indication there won't be any singing in Joker 2 ads (although maybe some GaGa warble)