ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

4B for Disney was nothing, compared to what they just paid for Fox film properties.

 

TLJ should take the #9 spot on the all time WW list either today or tomorrow.

 

Now that we're in full swing with Star Wars being an annual release, these films are no longer an event. Therefore, I think it's fair to expect future releases to essentially perform in the same way as the Harry Potter, Twilight, and Hunger Games films, in that they'll be front loaded by the fans, but taper off pretty quickly after a few weeks.

 

When adjusted for inflation, it looks like Last Jedi will finish in 6th place among the 9 Star Wars films.

http://www.businessinsider.com/all-...8-1/#5-the-phantom-menace-1999-8065-million-5

 

That seems rather unlikely. The highest total ever made is 3b, set by Disney in 2016. They aren't going to suddenly triple that amount. Even with the addition of Fox they would need to double their entire intake to get there. You also have to remember that for this number only the money made in the actual year is taken, not the total made by a movie. Disney has a lot of really big movies coming out in 2019, but they aren't all going to make 600m+.

The entire box office would have to grow by at least 1/3 in just one year to even have a remote chance at that number. Offering plenty of interesting movies is bound to increase the attention, but that effect only goes so far. If there are a ton of really huge movies running, other movies will suffer.

It's funny that you of all people, who tends to be rather pessimistic about box office stuff (and it definately served you well when it comes to TLJ ), are that optimistic about these kind of numbers

That's true for basically every single franchise with a build-in fanbase.

I have no idea how anyone can claim that these movies are "not an event" anymore though. Even far smaller movies than that are events that pull in all the attention and lead to people buying tickets like crazy. The only way for these movies not being an event is if you define event as being like TFA. In that case, neither Star Wars nor any other franchise was ever really an event.

 

I just hope the actuals hold up today or maybe go a bit higher. TLJ needs to catch a big break

 

I mean these films aren't events now in the sense that we're no longer in the mode of "Star Wars is back!" and we've transitioned into "Another Star Wars movie." There's less urgency in the latter.

And smaller films certainly can have the potential to become "events" since they aren't married to franchises.

 

The individual movies will become smaller, no longer "events".

But the franchise will grow. Which is better.

 

That's precisely how this never works. Disney had a team of investment bankers and lawyers that advised them on the acquisition. Lucas had a set of investment bankers and lawyers who advised him. These teams put a value on the assets then negotiate a price and review the process for legal implications. It's never "I just want to be rid of the whole thing, so make me a fair offer and I'll wash my hands."

 

Well, that much is obvious, a franchise can only return after a break, else it wouldn't be a return. No idea why that would be worth mentioning though, because that is a given. It couldn't possibly be any different.

Not reaching the same level of hype as one of the most hyped events in the world doesn't make it "not an event" though. That whole approach is misguided. A rare event that reached ridiculous levels of attention is not the common definition of an event. Else you don't have events for anything anymore. That's like saying Super Bowls aren't an event anymore because they don't match the best Super Bowl ever, or the world not having seen a real event since 1969, since nothing could top the event of mankind landing on another celestial body.

You basically take the mother of all events and state that this is the standard needed for something to be an event. That just doesn't fit.

 

@n8storm

Not at all surprising really. TLJ could made $775 million domestically (good for second all time) and still wound up only sixth on that list.

@ewoksimon

I tend to agree but will really have to see how it plays out with Solo and particular Episode IX to truly say that SW as just turned into another franchise.

 

it's hard to agree on nomenclature, but the nomenclature is arbitrary.

There are one of a kind movies that blow people away when they see them for the first time with their novelty and spectacle and storytelling. Star Wars, Gone With the Wind, Titanic.

There are nostalgia event films that try to recapture the excitement and the audience of the one of a kind movies. (The Phantom Menace, The Force Awakens, Jurassic World)

There are the big budget tentpoles - these are the 5-6 movies in any given year that will get giant production budgets, giant marketing budgets, will generate co-branded marketing and will get plenty of attention from the entertainment media. Maybe 2 or 3 of them really stand out at the box office. These are almost always sequels of some kind as a way of reducing the financial risk of making a big movie.

 

Came in under the last estimates.

 

any number for monday oversea ?

 

So you are saying that the Variety article that I provided a link to is wrong? Did you read the article or only my post and jump to defend TLJ?

The numbers are the numbers.

 

Yep. I think Lucas could have gotten it up to 6 or 8 if he really pushed it.

 

I think Rogue One is a better movie than TLJ, simple as that. It is a better story, with better structure and pacing (Rogue One had a jumpy opening half hour, but that was all forgiven once things kicked up a gear).

 

If the actuals are what they are at 594.90 million, then by Sunday we get to $600 million, or worse case Monday or Tuesday. So, I'm looking at 3rd place for this. I don't think the Tuesday-Friday cume will be $5.00.10. I just don't see it. I forsee a possible million dollar day today being Tuesday, but I'm thinking more like $850,000, $975,000 and that's being conservative. We may get a $775,000 for Wednesday, or Thursday which is expected to be a very cold day.

 

Sorry Matty20whatever number you have.....your not going to be making many friends here with that comment. No, sir

 

Big flop in China.

The drop was more than 90%.

 

China was no surprise at all, the franchise started "pretty good" with TFA, nothing special at all, and for a big blockbuster pretty meh. Then it tanked down to "pretty bad" for Rogue One. Then TLJ did awful in China, legitimately awful. If you knew in advance that the next Star Wars movie would make half of TLJ (each SW movie has made about half of its predecessor in China lol) you wouldn't even bother. By the time you got to IX it would make like $8M

Should hit $600M still sometime Saturday, Friday is out of the question most likely. I mean, it's possible, but it would require better holds than it has previously displayed, unfortunately.

PS: Anyone have any plans for the Super Bowl? I know it happens every year so it's not an event anymore, but I still enjoy some good Super Bowl parties, wings, and friends

 

Star Wars just does not work in China. I think it's time Disney and Lucasfilm just forget about it.

 

One thing I will say is that this movie has terrible holds. I just mean terrible.

 

I am surprised that Star Wars doesn't work in China at all, it has like Samurai in it. Space Samurai, even!