ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

After that trailer, I am predicting Solo gets over 1 billion WW, over 500 million domestic.

TLJ haters will then emphatically shake their fists and scream that Solo was a failure for not making as much as ANH and TFA!

 

That was a good looking teaser. But I will keep my expectations low as there are too many competition in May.

 

True there is much competition.

It is possible though that Solo will be more accessible than the last 2 movies, a shorter, fun adventure that will bring more family and repeat views.

 

The teaser did not inspire me at all. Maybe tomorrow when I see the full trailer I'll feel better. Jurassic World 2 and Avengers was way better for me. TLJ clocked in at $2.25 million, lets see the actuals tomorrow. Did not reach $615 like some thought it would. If actuals hold your looking at sometime early Wednesday which I doubt to next Monday before it crosses to $615.

The movie internationally is at $1.320 billion. Not bad. We ain't passing Harry Potter but what can you expect.

 

And if it doesn't, TLJ apologists will claim its all due to Infinity Wars.

Two can play this game.

 

The first release of IV and V extended for much longer than current movies.

Your article from 1978 which lists 221m is proof of that, as ANH ended its first run with 307m.

So, we have about 30% for the PT, about 32% for the OT, and anything from 33% to 34% for the ST.

From the OT to the ST, it is basically the same drops. We are not talking like the ST had a 40% drop. They are basically the same.

 

ANH was not even released in Australia until 1978 and was in theatres for a full 12 months from memory (when i say released in australia i mean Adelaide, not sure if it got a slightly earlier release in sydney/Melbourne

EDIT: a quick google says Oct 27 1977 which would of been Sydney. Adelaide was definately 78 and I am thinking it may of been delayed due to Lucas insisting the movie have new Surround sound installed which Hoyts did (and would of been paid for in spades)

 

The cold hard numbers say that all is not well with Star Wars. Full analysis of WSJ article here:

 

Did you just ignore what I just pointed up above? That the second movie in a Star Wars trilogy has an expected drop from 30% to 33%? And that TLJ is in line with this?

There is no twist to put into these drops. They are the standard drops. If TLJ dropped 40%, then your cold hard numbers would mean anything.

 

The "cold hard numbers" have given Disney the biggest film of the year domestically three years in a row and the biggest film of the year worldwide in 2015 and 2017. IOW, even with shifting market conditions and a film a year, Star Wars remains at or near the top. I don't know how this can be interpreted negatively unless you are really trying hard.

 

DigitalBits has the information as following:

A New Hope:

The Empire Strikes Back:

The numbers are similar to Mojo. For ANH, Mojo only counts the 1982 re-release and the 1997 Special Edition as individual runs, but seems to include the 1978, 1979 and 1981 theatrical re-releases in the initial run of $307,263,857.

For TESB, the same. Its initial run of $209,398,025 includes one theatrical re-release in 1981.

 

TLJ at 1.3 billion and Jumanji at 1 billion is something I don't think anyone predicted.

I wouldn't be shocked if a Jumanji movie dethroned Episode IX at the box office.

 

Still not sure what's supposed to be gained by all this effort to paint a very successful film in as negative a light as possible.

Disney-LFL isn't heading back to the drawing board. It's not going to start courting the views of disappointed diehards.

It's already been stated multiple times that some absolutely did predict this haul for TLJ.

When did Jumanji hit a billion dollars? It made over a 100 million dollars at the worldwide BO this weekend?

 

The thing you linked to is pure clickbait and the guy is a known Star Wars hater who runs a Star Wars rant channel. People should pay absolutely no attention to him whatsoever unless you want to be a fellow hater like he is.

 

Its yet another case of a poster throwing in the hand grenade of a youtube video thats (like you say) clearly clickbait to fuel a negative agenda. I'd go so far as to say the member posting that video could just be trolling the thread.

TLJ negativity is the band wagon to be on for people on youtube and social media, its gaining them hits and they will continue to trot out the same biased stuff as long as people are gullible enough to take their views as some kind of gospel. Think for yourself. These people want to see SW fail, that would be even bigger news for them.

 

@AndyLGR yep and I also wouldn't be surprised if Keldon is the guy in the video. He just registered a couple weeks ago and the very first post he made was to link to a video from that guy.

 

so will TLJ hit 1.5 billion?

 

no 1.345 billion maximum

 

Jumanji talk, again? This is becoming old very fast !

Jumanji is at 855m. Do you know when it will hit 1B? NEVER.

 

Jumanji is having a very impressive run. For the 100th time, congrats to it.

But I'm increasingly baffled as to what that has to do with TLJ. It is not the first film to go up against Star Wars and do well. So not even that aspect is new news.

The Jumanji trolling literally serves 0 purpose.

 

The "cold hard numbers" also put TLJ as having the largest 2nd weekend dropoff of all time. Does this mean TLJ was a financial failure in any sense? No, but I doubt it will be beat for some time, considering it's $25m+ in the lead and the closest comparison that isn't the final Harry Potter movie was BvS. I doubt Disney could bungle Star Wars as much as WB has with the DCEU, though.

And I'm well aware that percent drop off is "more important" than total drop off but that's what the "cold hard numbers" say.

 

Nope. I dont make YT vids.

And diesnt change the accuracy of either the WSJ article, the financial anslys, or his observstions.

Disney is oversaturating SW with mediocre product to the brand's detrement. Merch isnt moving, box office is off. And Disney"s predatory financials towards distributers has cost it bigtime with smaller venues.

 

...and a subsequent bump after Christmas. The demand merely shifted to the holidays

 

TLJ is now only a few million away from jumping 2 more spots on the all-time adjusted for inflation list. Including jumping ahead of this film, which was a monster film for its era:



Pretty cool.

 

@Keldon The guy is free to make the videos he wants on his own channel and if people are clicking on his channel I am sure he appreciates that. However it still doesn't mean he is anything other than a hater nor does it mean he has the slightest clue what he is talking about. If you want to pay attention to him go for it but you won't find too many people buying his bull on this site.