Senate The Middle East Discussion Thread

I agree it would be a major step, but if they strike inside Israel proper, a wide war is pretty much guaranteed. Under those circumstances, what I suggested is well within the realm of possibility

 

You’re correct that Iran does not want to go to war over this, but they also can’t deescalate the same way they did with Pakistan. Most of their population doesn’t like the regime, but the supporters they do have are itching for confrontation with Israel and the United States and would not take kindly to their government taking a soft approach. It’s extremely perilous trying to balance a response which both satisfies their own hardliners and which doesn’t drag the country to disaster. Mix into that they might calculate Biden can be intimidated with the Strait of Hormuz, you’ve got a perfect recipe for miscalculation.

 

This circles back to my original argument: Iran does not want this to escalate into a full-blown war engulfing the entire Middle East. They already have three proxy forces in play, and the Houthi attacks on shipping are already doing the job of affecting global trade.
If they want to directly involve themselves in blockading the Straits of Hormuz, then they either think it won't escalate further or they don't care. As cynical as I am, I don't believe either is the case.

 

Sure, but often countries are dragged into wars, especially when one state (in this case Israel) is clearly willing to provoke one. It’s easy for people to say that they should just not respond too hard, but they have to balance the hardliners within their government who are going to see no or a tepid response as a sign of weakness, not to mention they want to deter future attacks against their sovereignty. The balance they are walking is they can’t respond too hard, and they can’t be too weak either, which is a pretty thin line, especially if they miscalculate how much the United States is willing to back down - for example they may hit Israel hard on the assumption they can defuse the whole thing by holding a knife over the worlds oil artery.

 

I feel this is like stopping a movie and discussing what's going to happen next, at this point.
I'm guessing we'll all find out what's going to happen next, rather soon.

 

A larger war with Iran and Hezbollah will help Netanyahu alone. It is a tragic perspective for the Israeli people, and it is clear that it's something that Iran does not want either.
Netanyahu's hopes to stay in power rely on a prolonged military conflict, and the escalation with Iran might get him just that.

Concerning Iran's proxies, while Iran supports the Houthis and Hezbollah and their goals often overlap, they are autonomous players, so I don't think we should consider them as if they practically just served Iran's purposes indirectly.

 

I get what you're saying, but from a purely political perspective, they're going to be portrayed as doing exactly just that. Which of course serves Netanyahu's purposes just fine.

 

They’re autonomous in the same way Israel is autonomous. They take independent decisions, but if their benefactor and supporters wanted to exert pressure to change their behaviour they could do so, so a failure to do so is implicit support.

 

From what I’ve read, Iran is actively encouraging them to engage in a significant, coordinated attack, so a little bit more than just “implicit support”.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...dent-50nm-northeast-uaes-fujairah-2024-04-13/

Sorry for the double-post, but here we are.

 

Western Navies literally do this all the time.

 

Yes but apparently turnabout is not fair play when it comes to non-Western navies so the media has to make a big deal out of it.

 

Iran has apparently launched drones?

But I wonder from which country… and what the Israeli response will be. I think so far only Iranian proxies north of Israel have been an issue (and target) for Israel.

I also feel like this a false flag attack. If Iran owns up to it then it won’t be, but still.

 

They’ve been launched from within Iran’s territory, which is why it’s said they will take several hours to arrive in Israel. If they are Iranian-type drones it’ll be hard to suggest this is a false flag; it seems like a natural escalation from what Israel did in Syria against the consulate.

It’s somewhat concerning that a leader who is so willing to escalate things has nuclear weapons.

 

The reports I’m seeing say that Iran has formally announced the attack.

 

Yes it came from inside Iran. Probably enough to overwhelm Israel’s air defense systems. They’ll shoot some of them down, but not all.

 

I hope the drones don’t make it and that they’re not merely to interrupt the air defenses for missiles to follow.

That said, Israel shouldn’t have bombed the Iranian embassy and killed the people there. But escalating is the only thing the wannabe dictator Netanyahu wants to achieve. Nobody should be standing by this genocidal piece of garbage Netanyahu and his supporters who puts Israeli, Palestinian, Iranian, and American lives at risk.

 

Very soon we should have a better idea as to seriousness of the Iranian attack. Shaheed/Geran drone strikes have been extensive in the Russo/Ukraine war and they usually are not launched by themselves when designed for maximum effect. They’re a first wave that is slow moving and meant for ADS suppression/absorption. Then a second wave of cruise and ballistic missiles are launched to strike simultaneously for greater effect. If that second wave is launched in coming hours then we’ll know this is more than a symbolic tit-for-tat.

 

This is retaliation against Israel, not first strike. But still, I'm not sure why Iran saw this as the final straw. There's a chance Israel will limit its own counter-counter-strike... but I feel Israel could now get its full-blown war they have been wanting since Bush took out Saddam Hussein.

 

Jordan has vowed to intercept projectiles that violate their sovereign territory. Sounds like they weren't 'in' on it and aren't happy Iran would go ahead and do this without seeking permission. Out of hundreds of projectiles, who knows how many will even make it to Israeli territory.

 

Netanyahu hates all Muslims.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/...ress-netanyahu-advised-us-to-invade-iraq.html

 

However Israel responds, they almost always try to get the permission from the US... and I'm afraid Biden would grant it, to draw attention regarding Israel to Iran.

Yes Jordan wouldn't allow it, they have had an active peace treaty with Israel. Plus, they'd say that anyways, or Israel would invade their space constantly just like they do in parts of Syria and Lebanon.

 

Now seeing reports that Iranian state media has announced launching of second wave of ballistic missiles . . .

Still too early to determine scale of strike, but we are *potentially* looking at an air strike which could defeat Israeli ADS to destroy high value military targets such as the IDF air bases. At this point I am skeptical that will happen though, it would represent Iran’s willingness to engage in a much hotter conflict with Israel than has been underway to this point . . .

 

While Israel and Iran have arguably been in a low intensity war for a very long time, striking a consulate which took out a top Iranian general essentially guaranteed a response, and Netanyahu knows that. The reality is that the regime in Iran, no matter how much they want to avoid an open conflict with their fragile military and economy, could not afford to appear weak to its hardliners.

 

It's weird in 2024 hearing about an attack that is "hours away".