Senate The US Politics 2.0 Discussion Thread

@anakinfansince1983 Right now, I would love for some reporter to ask Trump about his tariffs on Wakanda and would he drop the tarriffs if they sign an exclusive deal for vibranium rights:



Of course, Trump the manic thinks is all going well:

https://bsky.app/profile/alleysofmpls.bsky.social/post/3llwm7l7mpc2h

Honestly, anyone trying to figure out this stuff as anything but ramblings of a mad man needs to stop. The White House came out and was adamant. There is no negotiating. Of course, Trump totally contradicts them not even a few hours later:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-trade-war.html

By tomorrow, it will be something different. Just a stupid old man playing stupid games.

Edit: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-news-04-03-25#cm91kk9wy0000356slm6n71v8

I asked my business friends around, and they think that number is likely too low. Could be more like $3,000 per household. And we are getting nothing out of this. It's not like suddenly we are paying a lot more for goods and services, but this money is going towards healthcare and education, aka the common good. It's quite literally the opposite.

 

So, just a little under 4 years to go. We're gonna be OK, right?

 

So I'm a math person; I love math and equations and complicated formulas and all that fun stuff. So when it was said that there was a formula being used for these tariffs, I went hunting.

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations



First off, has the US government never heard of LaTeX? What's up with the asterisks, nobody is taking any complex conjugations. That **** hurt to look at. Here, this looks a little better:



or if you absolutely must, use dots



So much better. Anyways, this looks all complicated and everything, right? It's not. They just set epsilon to 4 and phi to 0.25. That means the number multiplied by m_i on the bottom is.....1. It's just exports minus imports divided by imports. I never took a econ class beyond high school but it sure looks to me like they chose the parameters to be the mathematically easiest ones. A spherical country in a vacuum.

 

I think you’re being very generous assuming anyone in the administration know math or Greek letters use beyond fraternities.

 

I was hearing some people say something about how they did some simplistic formula of exports minus imports divided by imports...but now I'm looking at your post and I'm like holy crap, they just threw in two fake symbols to make it look fancy.

 

It's funny how roughly 80-year time periods (a little over the average lifespan) have worked out for the United States:

1. 1780s - the formation period of the United States (declaration of independence was 1776, the separatist war ended in 1783, the constitution was drafted in 1787 and went into effect in 1789, I'm just doing a rough estimate for easier math)

... 80 years later, after nearly everyone who could remember the previous time first-hand was dead ...

2. 1860s - the Civil War period (also the time of westward expansion peaking and the gilded age of robber barons about to start)

... 80 years later, after nearly everyone who could remember the previous time first-hand was dead ...

3. 1940s - the period of the end of the Great Depression, World War II, the start of the Cold War, and the true beginning of the US shaping the global institutions and becoming a superpower

... 80 years later, after nearly everyone who could remember the previous time first-hand was dead ...

4. 2020s - the time period we are currently living in

(Also, while we usually measure a "generation" in a different way... it's amazing to think we are really only 3 full lifetimes away from the revolutionary war. We do still have living grandsons of President Tyler, who was president in the 1840s.)

 

it does feel like the death spiral of American influence, or possibly just the death spiral of America itself. The Gulf will remain after we're gone obviously. It's been in the works for a while but Trump has been the tipping point.

 

Well, the continent will still be here. Whether or not it's a radioactive wasteland...

 

Not to defend it, but that image looks like it was produced with the math formula feature in Microsoft Word.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Canada, the EU, Japan, and other allies band together to lead the world. The U.S. has gone rogue under Trump. There are going to be both economic and military vacuums because of this. I would usually do my rant about how Trump makes Reagan and Bush the Lesser look subtle. But I remember back in 2011, when I heard Chris Hedges tell Michael Moore that city-states, nations, etc. create their own decline, even I couldn't imagine it would be this self-inflicted.

On the good side of things, the Daily Wire is collapsing. I think it's good when we get wins in Wisconsin. But we need more wins. At the rate we're going, I sincerely hope some other countries intervene to monitor our elections. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but that's what we offline discuss these days.

At any rate, stay safe out there, folks. You all are brave to keep at it.

 

LaTeX. It's not just for BDSM.

 

So they are actually doing something about this?

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley and Democrat Maria Cantwell introduced legislation that would require the president to notify Congress on new tariffs with an explanation of the rationale, including an analysis of the potential impact on U.S. businesses and consumers.

Congress would need to pass a joint resolution of approval on the new tariff within 60 days. Otherwise all new tariffs on imports would expire.

"This bill reasserts Congress’ role over trade policy to ensure rules-based trade policies are transparent, consistent, and benefit the American public," Cantwell said. "As representatives of the American people, Congress has a duty to stop actions that will cause them harm."

 

The likely executive branch response:

Go forth and procreate.

 

Let me take a wild guess: he's going to name some lunatic like Laura Loomer as a replacement.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-fires-top-boss-nsa-034446065.html

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration ousted the director of the National Security Agency Thursday night, according to top congressional Democrats who decried the firing as making the U.S. less safe from cyber intelligence espionage activities by China and other U.S. adversaries.

Gen. Timothy Haugh, who was chief of U.S. Cyber Command in addition to leading the NSA, was unavailable for comment. The White House and the NSA did not return requests seeking comment.

Haugh, a career Air Force leader, was deputy commander of U.S. Cyber Command at Fort George G. Meade, Md., until President Joe Biden tapped him to lead the NSA in Feb. 2024. He was one of the few holdovers from the Biden administration at a time when President Donald Trump has moved quickly to replace his intelligence agency leadership with political hires he believes will be loyal to him.

Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner of Virginia said in a statement that Haugh “has served our country in uniform, with honor and distinction, for more than 30 years.”

 

A few observations.

1. Nobody reflects anymore on the dictatorship aspect here. I mean … the US President can just impose tariffs in accordance with his ChatGPT research on trade deficits? Seriously? Of course he can’t. In this case he has seemingly declared some sort of emergency to be dealt with. But … nobody is challenging. Making it a de facto dictatorship now.

2. Seems like most of the tariff affected companies in Europe are ceasing delivering to the US for the next month until they have figured out the economics of this. Meaning a lot of components and material for the US is now missing. That kinda is the point, because the US wants those things in the US. But … what happens in the meantime? I mean … is the plan to bring US economy to a slow down while adjusting it?

3. Which brings us to the third and final observation. This sounds like a 8 year olds idea of a solution. There were a thousand effective less riskier plans to slowly internalize production and withdraw from international trade … but they did this.

Once again I end up at the same conclusion. It made sense if the idea was to damage the US position as a superpower. Or take its ability to put economic pressure on other countries away … but otherwise not.

 

There's parts of a plan

Very special plan too.

But, no, we can't be told what it is.

 

Fins, agree there is a strong and obvious dictatorial element. Republicans manifestly want that, Democrats haven’t committed to the consequences of maximalist resistance (though at the pace Trump is ruining things, the costs should be going way down), and the courts are mostly too slow moving to be relevant. At some point it only becomes discouraging to note the obvious and terrible truth no one is going to act on.

To any reasonably informed voter, it was always very clear that he was going to be a Very Stupid Dictator. That’s why voting him down took precedence over every other issue. But here we are.

 

I’ve heard a rumour the president is signing an executive order for Black Widow to bring him the Infinity Gauntlet. Everything is going to be fine.

 

Welcome to the new stagflation tailspin. I remember it well from the 1970s when America was great.

The volatility index is at its highest point in five years. Looking at other spikes: The great recession and real estate collapse, the beginning of covid. In both those cases the federal government launched massive programs to prop up the economy. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Quantitative easing, unprecedented Federal Reserve intervention. Then for COVID the treasury department launched a massive program aimed at propping up bond markets. There were direct payments to Americans and PPP loans.

This time, the Federal Government is the problem. I can't emphasize this enough:



In the face of looming mass unemployment and potential hyperinflation, the fed has emptied the foodbanks, tamped down Medicaid, threatened social security, laid waste to federal government support services across the board. On top of that we will get plenty of natural disasters this spring and summer and into the fall. Wildfires and hurricanes and giant tornados, and FEMA has of course been plowed under too.

The independence of the Federal Reserve will be under heavy political pressure, and in any case there's only so much it can do.

 

End of day, Trump is a scam artist. Reasons for his actions are always that.

1: Self-Profit.
2: Destroy the economy. Buy stocks on the cheap.
3: Ego.
4: Crash the dollar and introduce Crypto-currency or Trump Credit Cards™.
5: More power.

 

My 75 year old mom brings up the gas crisis at least once a week like it was the great depression of her lifetime. And even though she has voted Democrat the last two elections she defends Trump just because most of our family votes for him and she just can't turn on her family. Nothing will change that, even if the gas ran dry again. And she's not even a Trump voter. There is no hope.

 

IMO there's a much simpler explanation. Trump and his ilk genuinely believe that they are an invincible superpower, that the US is absolutely indispensible to the rest of the world, that no one can challenge them substantively in any way, shape or form, and that the result of the tariffs is that every other country in the world will come grovelling to them, bend the knee and agree to anything they demand while those who don't will be crushed. This belief in overwhelming American superiority is part and parcel of their ideology, and while the likes of Putin have certainly encouraged them down this road in service of their own ends, the fundamental reason they act this way is that they believe they can exert that sort of power. I think (hope) that they're in for an unpleasant surprise, but the EU has proved so many times to be feckless and dysfunctional that I'm not holding my breath either.

 

At least he was wearing a tux.