JCC Weather/Natural Disaster Discussion

odds are that the Pacific Cyclones will take the Cup this year anyway.

 

Yes, early predictions are saying the Pacific is going to get clobbered again this year. I think due to El Nino (that was one concept I never quite grasped in my Meteorology class.) I have to say it's a bit unnerving to see a tropical storm this early.

 

Right now, the El Nino seems like it might rival the intensity of 1997-98, which was historic for the Pacific but very slow for the Atlantic basin. Ana shouldn't be indicative of future seasonal activity; five tropical cyclones had formed by mid-July in '97, far above that of the usual of one... and then only three formed after that, in the climatological busy months.

Conclusion? This season's gonna be a dud. My prediction for our seasonal totals are 9/3/1, although I wouldn't be surprised if no major hurricanes formed at all this year. However, Hurricane Andrew formed during the intense El Nino year of 1992 (in which the first storm formed in April, unusually enough), one of the best examples of 'it only takes one.'

 

Always something to be worried about for me as I live in a zone highly prone to get whacked by one of them hurricanes.

 

Man, Cuba sure got smaller since rapprochement with the U.S.

 

A vote for NOAA's hurricane center page. Looks like there's potential for a couple of storms in the Pacific. Seems like their season never ends lately.

And wunderground is a daily visit for me.

 

I'd also highly recommend storm2k.org. It's the Jedi Council Forums of hurricanes. The NHC website is like starwars.com.

 

There are two storms on the Pacific beside each other at the moment. A tropical storm and a hurricane category 3. They're expecting the tropical storm to turn into a hurricane sometime tomorrow.

I agree with Darth_Dreadwar, this year hurricane season for the Atlantic will be a dud unless one actually breaks through, but it'll take a category four or five in order for that happen. Every eye on the Atlantic is so far being pushed back out to sea before it has to chance to even gain strength. I've already seen a few on the radar try but were unsuccessful.

 

Andres and Blanca have been interesting. There's definite indications the Eastern Pacific might be entering a climatological cycle that is equivalent to the Atlantic's busy period, such as last year's historic season and now two Category 4 hurricanes early in the season. Blanca rapidly weakening and then restrengthening to a major hurricane were both developments that entirely defied forecasts, and Andres was forecasted to peak as a Category 1 as well.

 

I miss my hurricane cantina http://boards.theforce.net/threads/sloppy-jars-hurricane-cantina.22955473/

 

Erica forecast to reach hurricane strength over the Bahamas by Saturday, could be the first hurricane in a decade to hit the U.S. coast. CNN "correspondents" dusting off the red windbreakers and popping champagne bottles.

 

maybe it will be one of those things that takes a sharp right turn and glides along the coast for a while before heading back into the Atlantic.

 

Maybe it will follow you wherever you go, wherever you run, wherever you try to hide, no matter how far you travel to try and escape it.

 

Don't have a birthday in the middle of hurricane season, Jules.

 

Speaking of natural disasters & birthdays... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Hector_Mine_earthquake]the[/url] '99 Hector Mine quake missed my birthday by a mere day.



Timing is everything in life, it seems.

 

an earthquake in the middle of the night that caused no damage? i can see why you still think about that near coincidence sixteen years later.

 

I can't help it, I'm fascinated to a fault about earthquakes; have some interesting memories from a few of them (counting that night, for it was powerful enough to wake up me & the rest of the immediate family, who almost wasted no time in commenting on how close I was to a birthday quake).

 

It has rained on my birthday.