JCC Weather/Natural Disaster Discussion

The jinx is real. Eri-K-a is now forecast to hit Miami/ft. lauderdalishly as a minor cat 1 hurricane. Get out while you still can.

 

It's like raaaaa-iiiii-aain.

 

the eye isn't well formed on the storm, I'm not sure how well it could get past the tropical storm phase.

I would be more interested to see if the storm system that's forming behind it turns into anything, it has a better well formed eye in the middle.....

 

Little pleasures, Tom, little pleasures.

 

some of the models have Erika taking a big right turn along the Florida coast and heading back to sea. But it could still hit Florida or Georgia or South Carolina or make such a sharp right turn that it hits Bermuda.

Whatever. But it should stay at sea long enough to get its act together and reach minor hurricane status. And it will bring plenty of rain to the southeastern coast ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

 

We're a couple of hours away from Erika. It'll make landfall during the evening. Not looking forward to it. Although, I did get to work from home today.

 

If you think about it, someone in the world will always die on your birthday.

 

If only I were in the business of printing birthday cards!

 

I think I actually got that from a birthday card. Not sure though.

 

The storm looks like it's trying to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

 

guidance now suggests it will pass directly over the Domincan Republic and then eventually over the keys directly into Florida without reaching hurricane status, bringing a ton of rain to Cuba and the Bahamas as it goes.

But if you look at all the model tracks, it still could do practically anything, from hanging a u turn and heading back out into the Atlantic to passing between Cuba and Florida into the Gulf and heading west to the coast of Texas. Volatile and uncertain is the future. Just the way we like it.

 

I still think they're wrong on this one. Model tracks are one way but

Watching it on the radar, the eye is still pulling towards Mexico.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

 

Hurricane Joaquin, out of nowhere, now poised to spin up to a category 3 hurricane and slam into the U.S. coast, possibly into North Carolina or Virginia, but it's an odd one.

 

Fingers crossed it causes devastating property damage on a Katrina scale. With no lives lost.

 

sort of the opposite of a neutron bomb?

also, stay safe Anakinfan

 

I'm not entirely sure there really is a projected path. There are a lot of possible scenarios. It could run right into Manhattan for all we know at this point. Or go back out to sea. Or transform into a reptilian kaiju and dive deep into the watery abyss, not to be seen again for a good generation or two.

 

Time to break out the emergency fermented grapes.

 

this should be interesting to see which path it takes....