ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Well yeah, the times they are a changin'!

I guess if people were afraid that audience scores would be "bombed" by anti-Disney folks, this film shuts it down! I guess it makes me wonder whether or not there can even be an argument about TLJ's audience score.

And before someone says "but but but what about Captain Marvel" remember there is a HUGE difference between audience "want to see" being low and an audience actual score.

Btw, how the HELL does SLOP2 get to have an audience score right now, two weeks before release??? How does THAT work?

 

But I have no idea why you decided to use it

 

Its been released overseas i guess?? Good catch btw. It has a 82 % score from critics as well. And a very high audience score! 93%. I am not sure how the verified system for audience score works yet, and even if it works overseas.

NOTE: Only 13 reviews yet though.

 

Just found out. Supposedly a fandango special engagement. But I still don't see how they are allowed to post their audience scores. Seems a bit unfair. All films get multiple pre-screenings yet nobody can post reviews. The embargo has lifted for that film. Still don't see it being fair for the audience score.

Btw, Aladdin will have the 5th biggest Memorial Day opening and quite possibly the 3rd biggest overall Memorial Day release domestically. It will at least be #4.(Hangover 2 made $254 million).

I can easily see Aladdin dropping less than 50% next week.

 

Secret Life of Pets 2 is already released in some territories like the U.K..

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt5113040/releaseinfo

 

UK opening for Pets 2 was half of Aladdins opening. Harrison Ford is doing a cameo in the movie, thats something.

 

my favorite is the angry youtubers trying to tell everyone that Captain Marvel is going to fail Geeks+ Gamer did no lie 100 videos about how it was going to flop.

I think what we should take away from RT audience reviews is that they don't matter and in no way effect box office performance.

Now it will be interesting to see how Ep9 does on RT with the new verfify ticket reviews.

 

Maybe we need to start figuring on the concept that audience scores reflect how a movie will do rather than influence it. In other words, people won't see a movie because of its audience score. Instead, the audience score will reflect what people ACTUALLY think of the movie and the rest is up to those people telling friends, family, co-workers how much they enjoyed it. Thus, anyone that may be on the fence (even if it is because of RT critic scores) will likely listen to "real" people and decide accordingly. That is what will likely happen (and is happening) with Aladdin which is why it has been solid through the weekend.

I feel like Aladdin is a total about face and is kind of a precedent. I can't think of any movie, besides maybe Bohemian Rhapsody, that has such a difference between critic and audience that favors the audience.

 

What about Venom?

 

warcraft would be another 28% critic and i think around 60% audien

weird it looks like RT removed all the auidence reviews for Warcraft

edit found it on the waybackmachine it was at 75% audience

https://web.archive.org/web/20161002005055/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/warcraft/
no idea why the auidence reviews were removed though that's weird


The issue with user reviews and fans is that fans with always create multiple accounts to either boost or hurt something they don't like. I think the only solution is not give a crap about audience reviews.

 

Solo's opening weekend $84,420,489 - they called this disappointing

Aladdin's opening weekend $86,100,000 - they are calling this a success

 

There's not as much difference as you might think. For a long time RT folded the Want To See votes into the Audience Score. People eventually called them out on it and they claimed to have changed it, but it still kept happening. It did with Captain Marvel in fact, until they went in an manually removed those ratings from the score.

 

yeah this is the problem with corporations and expecttions. Often companies put unrealistic expectations on movies and games.

In this case they should have expected Solo to do around 400 mill just like they do with the indvidual marvel movies but because of the succes of Rogue One they expected it to do at least a billion.

We see this also in video games for example Resident Evil 6 sold 8.8 million copies making it the highest selling RE game of all time... and capcom was disapointed...

Bottom line Companies are idiots and greedy

 

The main problem is it's a self selected system, and those are inherently unreliable. Secondly there frequently isn't enough participation from viewers in the rating to reliably tell anything from it. Take Endgame for example. An 89% rating based on 37.6K votes. Even if you want to assume half of it's domestic total is from repeat viewings, that's still around 42M unique admissions based on average ticket price. So that 37.6K votes represents a whopping .09% of the people who saw it. I think the only reliable conclusion to draw from that is not a lot of people fully utilize RT.

 

Solo's overall haul, for near enough anything else, would have been considered to be respectable. Two things, though, worked against it. Firstly, it was a SW film and it didn't even get to 400 million WW. And secondly, the ballooning budget meant that it would have had to make an awful lot of money to make anything back.

 

I remember Jacques Villeneuve saying in an interview that no one wanted to be the director who made a Star Wars movie that made less than a billion dollars.

Solo did okay. Not a billion, but okay.
Marvel can make Antman, and people can accept it's not monster box office but still a fun enough film.

 

Disney's non-SW/Marvel live action openings / domestic total since BatB:

POTC5: $62 m/$172 m
Wrinkle in Time: $33 m/ $100 m
Christopher Robbin $24 m/ $99 m
Nutcracker $20 m/ $55 m
Poppins Returns $23 m/ $171 m
Dumbo $46 m/ 112 m

I think the above is why there is room to be happy about the $86 million OW for Aladdin. But I think more than anything, it's the fact that projections were going down all the time and the projected opening was $75 million for 4-days ($60 million for 3-days) up until the day of release.

Solo's projections were $150 million for the 4-day weekend right up to release. So yeah, there's that.

Btw, we went to eat nearby the theater we saw Aladdin at on Saturday. The parking lot this evening was PACKED. Sunday's numbers were clearly underestimated by Disney. We should see a solid hold today when actuals come in.

 

Comparing the Audience Score and review bombing to previous films is not fair. Aladdin has the new rules for RT where you have to have a ticket before hand which is a good start. Therefore it doesn’t have a massive sample size at only 9,000 people. The Last Jedi and Captain Marvel obviously got review bombed by people with set agendas who in some cases didn’t even see the film. Captain Marvel at one point had more reviews in 3 days than Infinity War had in its entire run. The Last Jedi has 200,000 reviews vs Aladdin’s only 9,000. Pretty obvious that some of these were done by folks who didn’t even see the film. Glad Rotten Tomantoes is making adjustments, but this is something that unfortunately will never be able to be stopped.

 

Would love to see it hit $90 for the 3 days.

 

@jedijax Aladdin reminds me of The Greatest Showman, both of them straddled the rotten/fresh line with critics but ended up being big crowd-pleasers.

I was really surprised by how much I enjoyed Aladdin, I honestly wasn't expecting much. I wasn't a big fan of the musical numbers but I seem to be in the minority on that front so perhaps Disney could do more to highlight the music in the marketing. If they run an ad featuring Jasmine's new song, that could fulfill a 1-2 punch of spotlighting the cast's best singer and also hinting at the more modern take on Jasmine's character (which was a highlight of the movie for me).

 

Disney lowballing Sunday estimates is like peanut butter and jelly; a traditional marriage.

 

There's now talk of a a flat Sunday with another $30 million. Aladdin has become quite the "thing" and who knows what it will take in today. We could also be seeing a 40% drop next week.Pretty amazing how this movie climbed up from the social media sewers.

 

Two ways to look at Aladdin.

1. Great to see it do better than expectations this weekend and get a good audience score. Happy that the early negativity didn’t hurt it.

2. I still wouldn’t call this a massive successes story. There is no reason IMO why Aladdin shouldn’t have made more than BatB. For it only to have a 90M opening weekend feels like a missed opportunity. Maybe it’s legs will help it to a better overall return.

 

The reason is the popularity of Harry Potter, on which Emma Watson plays a major part.
It created a fanbase that now follows her movies.