ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Holiday movies already taking a massive beating on RT.

Grinch and Beasts2 both under 60%.
Forget about Nutcracker. That's a lost cause.

Interesting to see how this all plays out. Wonder who the holiday champ will be this year. Grinch, Beasts, Ralph, Poppins, Aquaman?

 

Mary Poppins 2 doesn't star Julie Andrews and her voice. There's a major appeal deficit because of that. Musicals today don't even sound anything like they did in the 1960s, so it's stylistically probably not going to match up very well. I don't get this film as this huge tent pole that meant that Solo (which suffered from its own appeal deficit due to a recast so far from being anything like Harrison Ford) had to be moved out of the Christmas slot it should have had.

I could be horribly wrong, but I don't see the new version being seen as anything but a forgettable and much belated sequel that isn't going to be mentioned beside the original in the long run. IMO, it sounds forgettable.

Avengers 4 will give IX a run for its money (I think SW will eek it out), but I'm not necessarily sure The Lion King will beat both. It'll probably be the best received of next year's Disney remakes (I prefer Aladdin, but that film is going to be destroyed by the audience's undying Robin Williams nostalgia--that film should have been separated from the Disney take on the story and music as much as possible to avoid the depressing comparison), but likely not as beloved as the original. I suppose CGI animals will get some chatter. Avengers and Star Wars will both beat it, IMO.

 

Unless you're talking strictly domestic, I see Avengers 4 easily grossing more than IX. Star Wars is currently suffering internationally, especially in China. Infinity War opened to $200 million there. TLJ opened to $28.9 million and dropped out of theaters fast. There is no way, with this trend, that IX will get butts in seats there based on the fact that "it's the last one in the saga!" They have no history of it there, and they even dropped Star Wars from the Solo title hoping it would attract more viewers. Domestic is not enough to compete with Avengers alone (and there is no way IX pulls TFA domestic numbers), and China is a huge market. I'm not sure how The Lion King will favor, but I could see it in between Avengers 4 and Star Wars.

 

Disney seems to be very high on Poppins and their live action remakes have done very well. The Lion King should be huge and effect IX I would think.

 

The Nutcracker and Alice 2 would like a word with you

 

Venom opens @ $111 million in China !

Boy what EP9 wouldn't give for that

 

Saw Nutcracker this weekend. It really wasn't all that awful. It was a HECK of a lot better than Alice 2 or Wrinkle in Time. It had a simple enough story and was a mix between Alice 1 and Narnia LW &W. My daughter loved it and she gets freaked out easily as well as bored easily.

Mary Poppins 2 confuses me. I am looking forward to seeing it with the family (wife, daughter, mother-in-law) even though I have trouble sitting through the first one. Forecasters say this one will be huge. I just have a hard time seeing this movie, which will be pretty much completely devoid of any teen audience whatsoever, being all that huge. Maybe $200 million if it is lucky.

@chris hayes Venom's success has been amazing despite the horrible reviews. Audiences really like it. The top 10 films of the year are really shifting thanks to this fall and winter. By the time things are over, Solo may not end up in the top 10 domestically for 2018.

As for IX vs Avengers 4, at this point I cannot see a way IX beats Avengers 4 either domestically or WW. I don't think IX will top Lion King either. JJ's going to have to do something REALLY special and tie it all together in a truly magical and memorable way to do that.

 

China was grossly mishandled by the current Disney and LFL executive plans. They could not just bring 1000 stormtroopers to the Wall and call it a marketing campaign.

They had to seed the field before they tried to harvest it.

 

The BR sales for SOLO are quite impressive for a movie that did only 200 million at the US BO.
I Do believe this movie will help episode IX to do better number

 

@jedijax

The Grinch also did $65 million this past weekend. Seems like certain type of movies are just immune from bombing due to tepid movie reviews. Now it go hurt the top end of what it could do but ulitimately Universal is going to be looking at a nice payday when it's all said and done.

Mary Poppins 2 to me is still one giant puzzle. I can see audiences really responding to it and doing great business or hitting with the bricks hard. Could go either way. Really helps it's a quiet Christmas release this year. No Star Wars this year while Avatar is slated for Holidays 2020.

And that is more like a title annoucement then a teaser trailer for Toy Story 4 but that is good that they have something coming out and are on target for next summer. I am curious to see what it does at the box office. Don't get me wrong it will be a MASSIVE hit but Incredibles 2 went over $600 million domestically. That is a really really big number to reach though out of all the Pixar movies, Toy Story is their biggest franchise so if any Pixar film will beat Incredibles 2 numbers, it will be Toy Story 4.

@chris hayes

Venom is not going to do over $600 million worldwide but rather it is going to be over $700 million most likely when it's all said and done. A $200/700+ million split?? I think Sony is really really happy with that critics not withstanding.

@Darth Luch

IMHO that really means nothing to Episode IX. Just that diehard Star Wars fans are truly nuts. That being said, if the Solo home video sales stunk I think it also mean nothing to Episode IX as well.

 

I don't think it was mishandled at all. They pulled out a giant marketing campaign for TFA, pulling all the strings, which caused a pretty big opening at the time, but the movie didn't work for audiences at all. And none of the following movies changed anything about that.

No amount of marketing can save something that just doesn't interest the people. Marketing set up TFA properly to establish the franchise in China, and the movie failed badly due to very much being disliked by audiences.

 

Apparent TS4 plot
Woody has always been confident about his place in the world and that his priority is taking care of his kid, whether that’s Andy or Bonnie. But when Bonnie adds a reluctant new toy called ‘Forky’ to her room, a road trip adventure alongside old and new friends will show Woody how big the world can be for a toy

 

They're not remakes. The one that didn't work was Pete's Dragon.

 

@Luke02 I agree with TS4's potential to beat I2 IF not for the fact that next summer is over-saturated with family flicks such as Aladdin, Pets 2, and Lion KIng (depending how dark it is). Plus, I REALLY hope that "spork" plot is just a gag to make people say "WTF was that?" and not the real thing.

 

That's correct, however, Pete's Dragon, I think, broke even.

 

I agree with what you said, especially the part highlighted in bold. This is why I feel that they should have done more than just pull out a stunt on the Great Wall.

If there is not a SW culture in China, they had time to build it properly. When did Disney bought LFL, 2012? They had several years to build the foundation before TFA.

China is a major Box Office factor now, SW needs to be big in China. No other option, that must be priority 1.

 

Well, that's just it, they did a whole lot more than just pulling a stunt on the Great Wall. They had a huge campaign that entered all areas of life, including getting young Chinese stars to market TFA to the younger audiences. Marketing put the movie in a great spot, it was only the movie that didn't deliver (to chinese audiences) and thus caused the demise of Star Wars in China.

The only thing they didn't do is release the earlier movies prior to TFA, and that wasn't even possible, as not only would there have been issues with the rights, but the limit on foreign releases in China also would have meant that Disney could only release those movies at the cost of some of their new ones.

Star Wars won't be big in China. Nothing is going to change that. It simply doesn't appeal to the audiences. While they shouldn't go out of their way to make things even worse there, China should be very far from being the number one priority. Their main priority should be to appeal to their core audiences. It's not worth it to risk those for the vague hope of making more money in China. They had TFA make 2b worldwide without China, TLJ made about 1.3b without China, Rogue One is a notch below 1b without it. That's plenty of money, and more important than maybe squeezing out 100m in China. This is one of the biggest franchises worldwide, regardless of China. The only movies to beat TLJ since the release of TFA have been Infinity War and Black Panther, and the latter got there by beating TLJ domestically as well. Seeing how Star Wars didn't exactly dominate the worldwide charts at the time of the prequels either, Star Wars isn't really in a different spot than it has been in the past.

Just because others make more money in China doesn't mean Star Wars is in some sort of desperate situation to be successful there. It's not like studios get all that much money out of China anyway. Being on top of the franchise-list in nice for the fans who care about the box office, but it isn't exactly a high priority for a studio. Studios care about making money from their investments, and 500m (random number) in profits while finishing 4th is worth more to them than making 400m in profits and finishing 1st. If the lack of performance in China and asia in general (minus Japan) means that there are some movies that make more money worldwide, so be it, as long as their own result still sees them with plenty of money.

 

The Chinese government probably doesn't want to see a franchise about ragtag rebel underdogs taking down a tyrannical fascist government.

 

@jedijax

Well the teaser trailer reaction is much more promising:



And it looks "spork" will play a big role in Toy Story 4:

https://ew.com/movies/2018/11/12/toy-story-4-teaser/

I admit I am in the minority but I think it could be interesting and educational for children not feeling like you fit in. What seems odd to me is that I thoughth the story was supposed to been that Woody has been lonely without Little Bo Peep and Buzz hatches a plan for them to go rescue her.
I guess this is just a different way of starting the movie but ultimately will meet up with Little Bo Peep regardless which IMHO will led to the emotional ending. This is totally fan theory but rehardless I am to put under spoilers just out of sure dumb luck I am somehow right.

Spoiler: Theory!

I think at the end of the movie...Woody and Buzz go there seperate ways. Woody stays where Little Bo Peep is and Buzz goes back to Bonnie's house with the rest of the gang. It mirror Andy going off to college since Woody and Buzz been best friends since 1995. Maybe Toy Story 4 is again about letting go to go off on new adventures even if it's away from your best friend/people you love. Plus too they could consider the years apart as their "college years" leaving the door open for Toy Story 5 and them trying to reunite which be of course more $$$ for Disney which they want plus they just built a big Toy Story area at Walt Disney World so I doubt this will be the end of any new content for the Toy Story franchise.

I told my theory to my wife and she goes, "But what about Bonnie? Wouldn't she thinks odd that Woody is now suddenly missing?". My response?? Yes you are right but guess what....kids lose toys all the time and can never figure out how. Part of growing up. Perhaps PERHAPS the movie ends with Bonnie all upset that Buzz is gone but her parents (or whomever) finds another one to play with and seems like everything is back the way it supposed to be ...until Bonnie leaves the room. Buzz and everyone goes to welcome Woody back except...Woody does not think he is a toy but rather a cowboy mirroring the first movie except in reverse.

I don't know just spitballing ideas since I got nothing for Episode IX right now!

 

I'm very torn on what IX will do at the box office. I really don't think that it will beat TLJ on its own virtue of just being the "last" SW film in the saga. I don't think that is enough. I think that to make TLJ numbers or especially higher, it will really have to tap into an all encompassing feel that the saga-the ENTIRE saga-is wrapped up in a nice, emotionally satisfying way. Yes, I know the words "emotionally satisfying" are thrown around a lot but this one needs it to leave a mark.

Tie in all of the worlds we've seen throughout. Make a connection between Kylo and Rey. Give Luke some redemption after TLJ. Bring in Force ghosts of those we've loved and give them an actual role. Have a Snape-like memory sequence that explains things very well but doesn't take up TOO much screentime. So much that can be done to put this over the top. It will never get close to TFA but it can at least keep from falling too far or at all below TLJ.

 

Dumbo looks like a winner!

People at BOT are drooling over Pikachu, saying it will out gross both Aladdin and Toy Story. I just don't see it.

 

I want IX to do 1.5 bn
I think it can make it if we get a really really good movie