ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

It's so weird to think that:
1. Disney is a lock for the top 8 earners of 2019 (assuming that Far From Home counts).
2. As a result, it will be competing against itself for bragging rights.

 

The rumours thread is saltier than...Crait at the moment. I won`t discuss leaks in here, don`t worry. I just think people are missing out on a lot of context and execution. Film is a visual medium and although we have like a ton of...ehem...professional screenwriters in here sometimes to dissect the writing, a lot of stuff written on paper is worthless, before someone who is able to film, direct, act, compose music and edit sound - in general, someone who is able to bring «filmmagic» and make you belive in almost anything, comes in an justify it as a filmed story.

If i had known about the midichlorians ahead of watching TPM in 1999 - making The Force something of a medical term or something almost materialistic, compared to the mystical, mythological, hidden buddhism like power i learned about in my OT childhood days - i would also be a bit worried maybe. Turning Anakin into this superpowa ubermench, Force creation - that was not the deal when Obi Wan told me the «story of your father» in 1983.

No reason to adjust my box office predictions yet. We have little product to base a judgement on. Now, we are about 4 months away, so things will soon start to escalate into highgear. Will be easier to see where this goes in late October i say. I don`t really care about TROS being number 2, 3 domestic / WW, its the top spot that really counts, and its nearly impossible for TROS to take over Endgame. If the movie becomes a zeitgeist SW movie again, there might be a very small chance of it taking down Endgames domestic tally. Its only possible domestic though, no chance in hell WW, because of the broken markets in Asia. I still stand by that TLK did what was expected of it, it was way over predicted by «experts» and the only reason it has made it to $ 1.6 billion WW is because the movie performed well in almost every market in the world. We could still witness that TROS makes $ 200 mill more in the US than TLK. And come in behind it WW. Crazy. I still have Frozen 2 as my wildcard - above TLK domestic - and there is a chance. Frozen 2 feels like a much more fresh product than TLK is and there is more buzz around it.

 

I'm saying that critics gave TLJ a free pass and I wonder if they'll do the same with TROS.

 

Come on, liking something that you didn't isn't giving it a 'free pass'.

 

Free pass. What? Lol! Soon we are back to «Disney paying critics» low standard posts again....

 

Not only that, we might hear the "Disney is buying movie tickets to make the box office look good!!" nonsense again. Hope not, however.

 

Oh god, let's just leave him be. To each their own and all that. *Grits teeth*

 

Now I'm totally curious but must resist temptation! (and thanks for not posting them here )

Yeah, we've definitely seen some extreme high predictions (TS4 opening weekend, TLK) this year. Along with movies defying all expectations (Aladdin). It's been fascinating to watch at times. And completely agree that Frozen is fresher and there's more anticipation now, especially as the trailers have that air of mystery to them and weren't what people were expecting.

 

^ Yes, i tend to forget that we try to have a leaks free zone in this thread. It has mostly worked before with the other films released under the Disney regime. So i guess we will manage this time as well. Its hard though and i don`t have time to discuss it in the main rumours thread. Oh. I think someone spoiled Luke dying in the TLJ box office thread just some hours before i saw the movie....hah. That was pretty rough!!

 

That's why I stop visiting the entire board in the direct run-up to the release
We get it earlier than most countries here, but there are still a few places who get it even earlier, not to mention people who have access to early viewings (for the press or something of that kind).

 

It's almost guaranteed. I remember both TFA and TLJ described over and over by critics as "the best since TESB" or even as "better than TESB". Wait for it.

What I am curious about is what will be the amount of difference between rottentomatoes's A) tomatometer score for TROS and B) audience score for TROS. Those respective scores for TLJ are 91% (tomatometer, compiling 451 ratings) and 44% (audience score, compiling 211,047 ratings). I know very well that some have said that TLJ's audience score is artificially low because of bots (Russian and otherwise). Fine. I won't argue that one way or another. The important thing is that rottentomatoes's audience score for TROS will consist solely of ratings from verified ticket purchasers. If TROS's ratings look at all like TLJ's ratings (with the critics' score roughly twice that of the audience's), then I think it will be safe to say that the critics gave TROS a free pass.

We will know one way or the other in a little over 4 months.

Sometimes it goes the other way. Consider the scores for Godzilla: King of the Monsters:

320 critics: 41%
25,186 ticket buyers: 83%

 

What exactly do we mean by "free pass?" To me that reads as "good enough" or basically an average rating of something like 3 out of 5. Critics were much more enthusiastic for both TFA and TLJ, which earned 81 and 85 scores on Metacritic, respectively. I think the 65 and 62 scores for Rogue One and Solo are more indicative of that phrase.

 

No, it wouldn't mean anything like that at all. The whole idea doesn't work at all. A person's opinion is his opinion. It doesn't matter one bit what any other person thought. Just because there might be plenty of people who have a different opinion doesn't somehow mean that a critic who likes something "gave it a pass". All it actually means, is that he liked it. Otherwise you could just as well turn the tables around and proclaim that those who didn't like something wanted to hate it right from the get go and thus were overly harsh in their judgement.

There are plenty of movies that most critics really loved but the majority of the audience didn't, just like there are plenty of movies that most critics didn't like or were mixed about while audiences loved them. Critics aren't representative of the general audience, nor are they representative of the number of people who vote in online polls, nor are they supposed to be. Any disagreement between critics and online polls therefore doesn't need some faux takedown of someone's opinion. It would indeed be completely ridiculous to pretend that such a disagreement means that a person doesn't actually hold the opinion he has stated.

Not to mention that an online poll will always be just that: an online poll. It does not really give you an actual view of what the audience as a whole might think (on average). Especially one as meaningless as the RT one, even taking the slight improvements into account.

 

Meh, who cares what professional critics think? They don't care about the franchise like the fans do. I only care what Star Wars fans think and it's their opinions that will convince me to either pay money to see TROS or to stay at home and watch the OT again. The "professional" critics can go pound sand after what they did with TLJ.

 

I agree I don't put much stock into what critics say but there is something to be said about having strong critic reviews to help continue building momentum. I do think critic reviews help with TFA as while people were excited they were still a bit unsure of it given everything. There was that "Why do we need another Star Wars movie" vibe going around a bit at least leading up to TFA therefore I do think the great reviews did help quell some fears. Don't get me wrong I think WOM matters more then critics reviews but again do think strong critics remarks can help build momentum. I do think that is what's happening with Joker. The great buzz that came out of the Venice International Film Festival and the strong critic reviews so far are helping push the OW projections IMHO.

And for what it's worth, the buzz as helped push Joker from "like to see but not a must" to a "must see" this fall. Joker, Frozen 2 (for the kiddies especially my daughter who is Frozen crazy) and TROS are the only must sees I have left this year in the theater. Films like Ford vs Ferrari, The Lighthouse and Ad Astra are all films I like to see in the theater but honestly won't as I am more then okay waiting for home video.

 

Fair enough, though sometimes even high praise can be a turn off to many movie goers. For example, and maybe I'm just jaded, but when I hear that people literally applauded for 8 minutes at the end of The Joker, it made me roll my eyes and wonder if that movie is being severely over-hyped. Eight minutes is a ridiculous amount of time for applause and I can't imagine anything would get me to applaud that long unless you're simply trying to make a statement. I think there's a growing number of people that feel the same as me and simply don't trust critics anymore and when they do praise something, you can't help but wonder what the ulterior motive is.

 

Who was questioning if we needed another Star Wars movie leading up to the release of TFA? I'd argue it was the most anticipated sequel of all time.

 

I would normally agree with that @Vezner except movie festivals that is kinda the norm. If a movie is well liked, it gets a huge standing ovation afterwards almost to the point it's almost ridiculous. I am more skeptical when premieres getting huge ovations afterwards especially since many of those "reviewers" are paid to be there. They know giving a movie favorable remarks even when it's not warranted will continue their access to premiere events.

There were plenty of people @ewoksimon especially in the critics circle who were questioning the need for Episode VII. Remember all the jokes about how old Harrison, Luke and Carrie were going to be in it??

 

There was definitely more hype for TFA when the return of SW was fresh, but there is kind of an obligation for a IX because they made TFA at all.
I think people will see it for at least a sense of closure.

 

Can't say I shared the same doubts.

 

How could you possibly know how much of a fan they are?
Sure, it is highly unlikely that every single one of them is a fan, but then again, that would have no bearing whatsoever on their opinion of the movie. The idea that if they all had just been a fan they wouldn't have given the ratings they gave to TLJ is just absurd to say the least. It is indeed rather insulting towards other fans who tend to like the movie. A fan is perfectly capable of giving something a good or a bad review, just like a non-fans is perfectly capable of doing the same.

Counting on "the fans" to tell you whether the movie is worth it doesn't make any more sense than listening to a bunch of critics. The possibility of there being another fan who shares your view on everything connected to Star Wars is slim to say the least. And the odds get worse with every new release, regardless of whether it is a movie, show, game, book, comic or toy. Just from the top of my head I can already think of one user here who I disagree with about pretty much everything connected to the prequels, while agreeing with most of his opinions about the sequels and spin-offs, while there is another user with whom I agree with on many details when it comes to the prequels while being in complete disagreement about the new movies. None of the other fans are you, and if TLJ has made one thing clear, it is that fans can be on polar opposite sides on the spectrum as well. They aren't in any way a better guideline for whether you should watch a movie than anyone else is, for people who you might agree with in one instance might not share your view on the next one.

 

Fan-dar?

 

RT for TLJ is all of the evidence I need to validate my feelings on this subject. If you disagree, good for you.

Just out of curiosity, if you truly think other people's opinions don't matter, why do you even bother coming to this forum at all? Me, I like to see what other people think and say about the movies. It's fun to get their insights and, yes, formulate my own opinions based on those insights and my own. And yes, I tend to agree with many fans about Star Wars, including my disdain for TLJ. Of course I don't agree with all of them (what a ridiculous notion), but many, if not most, I do agree with. And yes, that consensus lets me trust what fans say about the films much more than the critics, who I tend to rarely agree with on about anything.

 

And that is not what Oissan said, that he don`t care about others opinion. Read again. Also. RT for TLJ is all the evidence you need? Good for you then. How you know those who have posted audience reviews are Star Wars fans? Btw, RT is not a thing where i live.

 

Then what is he saying? He's clearly insinuating that my caring about other fan's opinions is ridiculous. If you don't see it, ok. But that's how I see it and I completely disagree with him. Read again.