ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

This purely anecdotal, but my impression is that the degree of tv marketing has been comparable to TLJ. Billboards and posters however, seem far less prominent. Toys in the stores seem about comparable.

The main issue with the marketing is that I don't see the big hook. They don't have Ford as Han or Hamill as Luke, which were the two big previous hooks imo. It's going entirely off the brand this time, which might very well be enough to make 1b$, we'll see.

 

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

DISNEY Total Loss: -$76.9M ,

I would say that loss is less than I thought it would be ........

 

The hooks are Rey, Kylo, the Emperor and see how it all ends.

 

I'm not so sure if the public critique of RJ and TLJ by JJ, Boyega, and Ridley were necessarily placed in the most favorable of time schedule.

Or maybe it was. Maybe it's part of the plan. Maybe it's like a backdoor way of marketing TROS by trying to gain favor from those who hate TLJ? We shall see if this backfires or creates a demand for TROS tickets.

 

Any press = good press? Who knows lol today was interesting to say the least. At least Star Wars was in the discussion.

 

I think it's a stretch to say Emperor is a hook at this point. He's not really in the trailers, or any of the marketing except as a voice.

As to the conclusion angle, I think that is undercut by the fact that TLJ did not leave audiences with a cliffhanger, or any clear direction for the story. Han and Luke are already dead, and everyone knows Leia's presence will be minimal, which undercuts the curtain call dynamic. C3PO's death letter line kind of builds the finality angle, but he's not really considered one of the top 5 franchise characters, so its a big sell for him. Also, do general audiences really want to see him die? The decision to push that little sequence in the trailers seems odd to me.

I guess Rey and Kylo are the closest thing there is to a hook at this point. They are definitely the primary focus of the trailers. Guess we'll see how much work they can do, it could very well be enough.

Don't forget the 40 something male demographic.

 

Wow, they FINALLY showed us what Palpatine looks like in TROS!!!! Kinda cool look with pointy ears and whiskers! Very ominous and creepy as he should be!

 

That is why they are selling it as the conclusion of the saga.

 

Does that include the $49M for home video sales? Pluse whatever netflix pays and then merchandise?

 

No. It does not include the costs for producing and licencing home video and merchandise and their commercials either.

 

Cats, indeed, is going to be even creepier than ST Palpatine, even if he's literally a corpse strapped to a contraption and being spoken through by spirits.

Friggin' Cats.

 

Sorry folks but I will have to downgrade my most recent predictions unless things go absolutely BONKERS over the next week. This is the point at which things have to really soar in order to reach the level we think it should.

Downgrade to what? I am not sure. $190-$200 million OW? $37-$40 million in previews? Still not bad but certainly not close to being enough to topple TLJ. This has been a HARD week for the film and the press/media/crew/cast have not done any wonders for it. Going after TLJ in interviews and articles seems like a desperation move in all honesty. They needed to leave it alone and JUST talk about how "great" the new movie will be.

Iirc, when TLJ got to its first Tuesday, I wondered about whether it would reach JW's numbers. Then, after its 2nd weekend, I questioned Avengers.

 

Well, I've just checked the TROS ticket sales in the Netherlands. In the cinema (Amsterdam) where I watched TFA and TLJ there are still approx. 35% of seats left on the first screening on Wednesday December the 18th. When TFA came out there were no seats left for the first screening, I can't remember for TLJ so I can't compare.
I also checked my local cinema, approx. 80% of the seats left for the first screening....

 

They are scared. Its obvious. Think back to the Celebration 2019 Panel, all of them behaved like they were scared and they still are. They just dont know the mindset of the fandom. On the other Hand...Things get wildly outblown again. Quotes get taken out of context and used to endorce some agenda.

I think there is no momentum. All the positive drive is gone since December 2017. The Mandalorian might push some positive engery back into the Franchise (as did Jedi Fallen Order) but the big positive drive that was there from 2012 to 2017 is gone. Its literally sucked out of the Franchise due to all the negativity on Twitter, YouTube and social media in General. Positive fans arnt as pumped up as before and negative fans drive more negativity through the franchise.

Honestly Iam glad when the ST is over. I'm excited as hell for Ep IX and have already booked two showings. I cant wait to see and enjoy it. But Iam glad when its over and we get some break from Cinema Releases. This hopefully will clear the slate, let the fandom calm down and with Cassian and Kenobi on Disney+ let some momentum rise again withhin the Franchise.

By now I wouldnt be shocked if the movie would not break the Billion Dollar border. There is just no momentum and fun withhin the fandom which would endorce me to belive the movie would be loved by general SW fans.

 

TLJ was a huge mistakes. They should have openly rejected that movie if they wanted to win fans back. But I guess Disney thought support from Twitter critics is all you need. Lol

People who hated PT felt disappointed. But people who hated TLJ felt insulted. That's the difference. And combined with nonsensical overpraise of that movie it just became worse. You felt insulted with the movie and then media and critics insulted you for not liking it.

 

And that is the Problem: feeling insulted by a movie you. maybe should consider reflecting yourself if something is wrong with you. I mean...its a movie. Why take it so personal?! It gets even worse when you think that the more praise the movie gets the more personal you take it. MAYBE...its not the movie or the critics...maybe its YOU who has a Problem...

 

I'm not talking about me. I'm analyzing situation.

But film Twitter lost their mind yesterday, so it's clear they take this movie personally for some reason.

Both sides are invested on personal level and that will hurt TROS.

 

This is a franchise with a long track record of what works, what doesn’t, what fans expect and enjoy. They exploited this to a ‘t’ with Force Awakens.

It shouldn’t have been hard for Disney and LF to look at RJ’s first draft and say - “neat little subversion, but many SW fans will never accept this Luke. Also his story takes the focus away from Rey. Try again.”

 

When I said YOU I didnt mean you literally put People who feel insulted from a movie. Should have clarifyed that. Again: it was not about you personally.

I dont think TLJ was a mistake. It was the movie they wanted to make and it was the Story the wanted to tell. People dont Need to feel insulted for not agreeing with the choices made there. I actually never will understand how one can take stuff like that personal.

 

Contradictory, localized evidence here: I didn't have to book my TLJ ticket in advance in Toulouse, France, but if I'd tried that for TRoS, I'd have been left standing in front of the gate in a few days.

 

Ticket sales at my local AMC seem pretty strong for TROS on Thur and Fri next week.

At another theater close to me, they seem strongish but not on the level of TFA for sure and probably closer to TLJ.

 

Showings at my AMC are now selling out.

 

Any idea how wide of a North American release TROS is getting? In terms of Major releases, Star Wars is usually on the lower end by a few hundred+ theatres.

1 more week...

 

One of these is going to get moved but how cool will it be if both Matrix 4 & John Wick 4 come out on the same day? Again it's Keanu's world we all just live in it!

 

Disney's $11 billion plus box office year in which Star Wars will only be a footnote. It's a new world.