ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

TROS can make less than TLJ and even less than $600 million but have a very high level of regard from fans and that would be a tremendous success for Disney. It would finish the saga with a positive outlook and give fans confidence for future projects. In that respect, the number doesn't matter that much.

Of course if it does get that much respect then one would think it would make more than TLJ (at least domestically). But it doesn't have to make more to end the saga on a high note.

But a break will be needed nevertheless. I'd like to be able to guarantee that the next move will be a pre-pre-pre-pre-pre-TPM series. Original Jedi? Sith wars? Old Republic? Whatever you call it. Something that this trilogy lays the foundation for. And with Ach-To, prime Jedi, and some of the leaked items supposedly in TROS, there is room for a LOT of expansion.

 

I'm a great believer that history repeats and in both the previous trilogies the 3rd film had a box office bounce back from the middle chapter :

Return of the Jedi + 6.6% lifetime on The Empire Strikes Back

Revenge of the Sith + 22.4% lifetime on Attack of the Clones

So I'm going halfway between and calling The Rise of Skywalker + 14.5% on The Last Jedi

So The Rise of Skywalker will do $710,107,682 total domestic.......

 

The Hollywood Reporter - Bob Iger Planning to Meet With Martin Scorsese Over Marvel Comments
The Disney CEO added that the filmmaker's comments were "nasty" and “not fair to the people who are making the movies."

Don't think he's been this mad since Lucas* called him a slaver and got an apology out of him. Isn't it enough that the MCU makes an insane amount of money at the box office? The prestige isn't really necessary.

* Lucas said Scorsese was one of many people who gave some input on the first SW.

 

It would be nice, but different situations and different times.

Anyone think that review bombing from "audience" on RT will negatively affect the film's success?

 

I don't think review bombing is possible with movies on RT anymore. You need proof that you watched a movie

 

I'm not sure how the verification works. Each time I review a movie now it just has a popup that asks me where I bought my ticket. If I bought it on Fandango I hit that button and it moves me right along, but sometimes I buy my tickets at the local theater so I click the "Other" button and it still moves me right along. Perhaps when I click "Other" it adds my review to the unverified portion.

 

Yeah, you have to post proof you went with a ticket stub or something. I hope it’ll give us a more broad outlook of the GA opinion without the bombing.

 

Jumanji 2 is doing decently

 

LOL!

That your biased opinion, definitely not how they are feeling.

 

Yes.

 

the ST trilogy has lots of fans and popular with the general audiences. this is probaly the best time Lucasfilm has had in a while, and disney enjoys it.

 

I hope JJ sticks the landing on this movie the way other franchises have ended. I posted over at the rumors thread what I feel they need to end with. That is usually the way to really hit the "feels" is to get that emotional ending with true pay-off for the characters, the beloved characters, and the galaxy. It's what Potter, LOTR, and Avengers did. Not sure if that will be the make-it or break-it in terms of $$$ but an emotionally satisfying ending for all gets people to come back to capture that feeling rather than having a "meh-ok" ending. "Me" and "Okay" tends to get people to forget things VERY quickly and thus causes the box office to take tumbles after a short time.

Btw, as per BOT "analysts" and "statisticians", here's where we stand:

Nationwide estimates for TROS (OW) are at $63.5 million in pre-sales.

At the same point in time (if I understand correctly):
EG: $120 million (33.6% of total)
TFA: $87 million (35.1% of total)
TLJ: $80 million (36.3% of total)

If patterns hold, we have:
$189.0 M OW (EG comparison)
$180.9 M OW (TFA comparison)
$174.9 M OW (TLJ comparison)

Trying to get the Infinity War comp. But if this is the case then Unless the WOM is absolutely INSANE, $200 million looks VERY unlikely.

 

It's too low. The following estimates way higher.

T-6 days TROS (OW) 78.6 million pre-sales estimate.

Jedi Jat predictions from BOTheory

 

Okay, here's where I get lost and confused.

I thought the $78 million was overall pre-sales whereas the comps I posted were just for the OW.

I get a LOT of flack at BOT for misunderstanding the numbers but I try really hard to understand what is going on. I really do. I just can't seem to grasp it though.

 

Maybe you're right. What I wrote is the total pre sales not the OW. I can see now.

 

In a few months from now, I wouldn't be surprised if we see this headline:

"Scorsese to direct MCU movie, DiCaprio and DeNiro to star"

 

although i dont agree with Scorceses comments, i kind of hope he tells Iger to blank off.

He can say whatever he wants.

 

I hope they duke it out MMA style

 

Its aways important to watch the movie to get a feel about its box office performance.
I did finally watch Frozen 2 yesterday, impressive and dynamic visuals, but a somewhat weaker story. I can see why its slowing down a bit - i still suspect the movie being rewatchable for many though, so too early to conclude with the Christmas corridor coming up.

Regarding TROS:
Next week is obviously crucial regarding OW numbers. Pretty much everyone agrees on the movie needing good WOM early on. It needs to perform and act more in line with the endings of LOTR or Harry Potter, rather than Avengers ( which was never a trilogy format either). Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday next week is where is its going to happen if things needs to get hyped up. We don`t have a single audience reaction to the movie yet. Monday night is, again crucial. ROTJ had a more organic created cliffhanger to build on. ROTS had a more hyped up, but projected «must see moment» ( Anakin, Vader). TROS just have to deliever in sense of quality and emotional resonance. According to the leaks, there is a big twst in the movie as well, and reaction to that is for now, largely unknown outside of certain fandom bubbles. Hopefully we can then see an OW that builds similar to Jurassic World and Black Panther, people just has to see it.

 

I'd even put Aladdin on that list, despite it being lower overall. But fan WOM really helped that to overperform expectations as well. But yes, JW and BP really did have that momentum that we'd all LOVE to see for TROS. And their OW's, for now, seem to be on the higher end of TROS expectations.

We're in the 11th hours and it seems that all experts place TROS's OW between $190-$210 million. $190 m would be, without a doubt, very disappointing. Less than $190 million-I don't even want to GO there and the %'s based on other films can't really be used as measuring sticks until we know more. Frozen 2 was expected by some to be between $130-$140 or more and then projections went WAY down below $120 m for some until it rested at $130 million. I DO think that people who haven't seen F2 as well as people wanting to see it again (like us) are waiting until Christmas holidays where we should see bigger than usual jumps.

Btw @Othini wouldn't you say that the endings of HP8 and ROTK were in lines with the ending of EG? I mean-all 3 had a "where are they now?/where do they go next?" kind of feel to them which is what would set TROS's ending apart from ROTJ.

 

So I've been hearing that the OW is now predicted to be around 195 million. Makes me feel good about my sub-200M prediction I made some time ago.

 

The opening is guaranteed. Its the 2nd and 3rd weekends that will be telling. Being Captain Obvious here I know.

 

Where are you hearing this

 

A few people on another forum (resetera) were referencing updated tracking numbers but I can't seem to find what's their source so I may have jumped the gun.

 

For the most part, the tracking data has it sitting right at 200-205. But the tracking data should be considered a rough estimate. 180 to 225 are all very much possible from current tracking.