ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

That’s a bit of a Straw Man argument don’t you think, maybe at best a misleading comparison? In 2001 thru 2005 Star Wars was owned by 1 man, who didn’t have to pay off a 4 billion dollar price tag before turning a profit. Owned by one man that saw all the profits come to him, and not have to be spread around and across millions (possibly billions, I never checked how many total shares of Disney stock are out there) of shares that pay dividends.

I’m in no way saying Lucas didn’t want to turn a direct profit from the movies. There’s plenty of evidence that he was very cost minded while making the Prequels, but his level of acceptable profit is going to a whole heck of a lot different than that of a huge corporation like Disney. Most people realize this. So a $25 to $50 million profit on AOTC is awesome for Lucas... That same profit for Disney on one of their films is, at least imo, just not what they are looking for out of an IP they paid billions for.

As I said, I’m in no way trying to convey that Lucas was willing to lose money, he wasn’t. This was evidenced by the fact that he was going to make his own live action TV series, had at least the first seasons scripts actually written, but cancelled everything because it was too expensive to make. However, most people realized back in 2002 that Star Wars was not in trouble because one man was making money on the movies. It’s a whole different world of what’s acceptable profits now that a mega-Corp owns the IP, whose job it is is not only make a profit, but, grow that profit by a % every year over year.

edit: and I also want to make clear I’m not suggesting Disney is ready to kill the Star Wars IP. But, I will suggest that they are trying to figure out what they need to do to grow these movies. They can’t be all that happy with what they are seeing.

 

To be honest, I think you are creating a straw man argument here. No one is saying that there isn't room improvement. Of course there is. However, to suggest that a movie that well most likely make a billion worldwide is a failure is ridiculous. Disney has made money off of Star Wars.

If anything, the Lucas was in a riskier position since he was producing the movies himself.

I honestly don't understand your points. I was responding to someone saying that Star Wars is in trouble since Spider-Man is beating it this year. I merely pointed out in 2002 Star Wars not only lost to Spider-Man, but also Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter.

Just feels like people want to spin this movie as a failure no matter what. A movie that makes a billion worldwide is not a failure.

 

So there are new standards for the franchise now that it's owned by a public company rather than privately?

 

If Disney wasn't happy with what they are seeing, and thats probably 6 billion in movie tickets alone in the last 4 years. Thats not including everything else, streaming, blue ray sales etc. books, comic books, video games.Why in the heck would they be producing 4 tv shows as we speak and have invested billions into a two massive theme parks, etc etc? Are they stupid or something?

 

I am not suggesting that making a billion worldwide constitutes a failure. I never said that now did I? I actually made it a point to make sure to I wasn’t suggesting that Disney was ready to pull the plug on Star Wars.

What I did say, and will say again, your trying to use the box office circumstances of AOTC in order to make your point in your discussion. It is a bad comparison to make. It’s an apples to oranges comparison. There was no real cry from anyone in 2002 that Star Wars was dead (there were some), because everyone understood that the movie made money for Lucas. He was an individual, his costs were no where near what movies cost these days.
Circumstances in filmmaking were largely different in 2002 than they are now. In 2002 no one was spending any where near the money in order to market internationally. Not like they have to today. Not even close. The international market was like found money in the cushions for the most part in 2002. Of course they marketed, but not like now.

Not like now where international money is needed to turn a profit on a movie. Needed so badly that studios are now changing and altering their movies to appease different markets. Delete scenes, alter scenes, shoot completely new scenes and add to the international cuts. Studios are denying scripts and sending them back to writers and directors if the studio doesn’t feel it will play to international audiences.
Again, your comparison is an apple to oranges comparison. there are so many things I can point to why your comparison is not a good one to make in order to try and prove your point.
As far as billion dollars being a failure or not. I never said it would be a failure at a billion. However a billion is not that special anymore, nor is it indicative of being proof positive of profit. There are a total of 45 billion dollar movies ever. 8 of them alone this year, and 5 last year. Over half the billion dollar movies to date have come in since 2015 (25 of the 45). That’s not counting the 975’s or 950’s. Billion dollar WW BO’s are starting to become more regular as foreign markets expand. However that means more money is needed to advertise to those expanding markets. We th all those added extra costs of marketing (that Lucas didn’t have to deal with in 2002),it eats into profit.

Let me ask you this... a mom and pop grocery store makes $50,000 in profit from their grocery sales. Do you think Walmart would be happy with that profit at one of their stores grocery division? Of course who owns the property has to be taken into account when talking about profitability and how a company reacts to a bad box office. Let’s say AOTC lost $5 million and TROS loses $5 million, how each party would react is completely different. It’s not the standard that’s different (losing money is losing money), but, when discussing how the parties would react to box offices numbers (good or bad), it would be different!

and that’s my issue with the above comparison of AOTC to TROS. The discussion and comparison has to take into account how the different parties would react.

 

It doesn't matter what the expectations of the owners are. The expectations should be assessed upon how reasonable they are. To determine reasonableness you need to look at the products past performance. To use your analogy, it would be unreasonable for Walmart to think that the ' Mum and Pop' store would start making more money than it was just because they bought it.

 

The announcement for Star Wars land came in 2015 before TFA was released. Breaking ground on the first park started in April of 2016, obviously after TFA’s amazing run.

Let me ask you this, if TFA had only made $1.1 Billion WW... do you really think Iger would have broken ground on Star Wars Land? Do you think it’s a coincidence that breaking ground just so happened to start in California after TFA’s theatrical run?
Galaxies Edge is indicative of Disney’s mindset in 2015/2016, not their mindset now. Which....

The TV shows you’re talking about... some of them were supposed to be movies. After not wanting another Solo bomb, Dusney scrapped the Boba Fett and Obi Wan movie and turned them into tv shows. Shows that cost a lot less to make, a lot less to market, a lot less to distribute, and can be used to get people to pay $7 a month, every month, all year long, instead of buying 2 or 3 $12 to $20 tickets in December of every year.
If Disney has the confidence in their ability to put out profitable Star Wars movies, where is the Star Wars movie for 2020? 2021?

Why let the Game of Thrones directors go so easily to Netflix? Why bring Kevin Fiege (spelling) from Marvel into the mix? Isn’t his plate full enough?

Right, because you know, cancelling movies, turning them into tv shows, letting award winning writers and directors go, cancelling trilogies, and bring the guy in that steered Marvel to insane profitability shows that Disney is just chalk full of confidence in the current status quo...

 

It absolutely matters what the expectations of the owners are, when the discussion being had is whether the owners feel the Box Office results are good or bad.

Each owner is going to have a different outlook on what they deem good or bad based on their circumstances surrounding the IP the box office is for.

Yes, if you want to cut out all the chatter and strictly look at the numbers, with no outside circumstances or influences, there is a place for the discussion of whether $1.1 billion is good or bad. But the discussion that was being had was more than just that in a bubble type scenario.

 

Firstly you don't really know what Disney's expectations are. I don't think they are as sky-high as you think, because they have the previous numbers for the franchise. They would have reasonable expectations based upon past performance. Secondly the question posed was whether the franchise is in 'trouble' - that requires a more objective observation of the facts.

 

Yes, you are correct. However you don’t know either. See that’s why this is a discussion or conversation. If we did know, there would be nothing to discuss. This is a discussion of differing opinions. Where all we can do is supply our opinion and any relevant info to support it. For example pointing out all the changes they’ve made in production of their movies over the last year and a half.

Interesting... I wasn’t aware that I put any kind of value on their expectations that would lead one to believe it was “sky-high”.

right.. facts that we no one is privy too. Hence again it being an opinion based discussion...

 

I'm willing to admit it when I'm wrong. The GA seems to like the movie. Perhaps the weak legs of TLJ had little to do with Luke or how the movie deconstructed the OT? Maybe the legs were weak because TLJ was simply boring (which it, imo, largely was)?

 

You are attempting to correlate some type of straight line success. As if one relative failure mean a franchise like this is in trouble. Like Dumbo was for Disney this year, however that isn't going to stop them from making live action remakes of their movies. There was no Star Wars for 10 years. Didn't mean the franchise was in trouble. Didn't mean Lucas didn't think he could not make money making more movies. If there is no Star Wars movies for a few years it means nothing about the franchise. For you it signals something. Like why don't they just crank out movies after movies. They have had 5 in 5 years. Now as your for your point of well billion dollar movies aint the be all end all. Name me one that wouldn't or doesn't have a sequel in the pipeline or down the road somewhere. Companies like this don't just throw in the towel on billion dollar movies. Unless its like Pirates which cratered. Star Wars is nothing like Pirates. Marvel is also producing smaller properties on Disney plus. Why doesn't marvel just make them movies? This company hits all available market places. For you this seems like some kind of inevitable cliff fall for Star Wars. Its no where near that. This Franchise has been around for 42 years. Its had highs and lows. Mostly highs. Your bar is set at The Force Awakens. You have some sort of pre conceived notion and you think Disney does of what this franchise is supposed to be for them. Is it suppose to be bigger than Marvel? Or their cartoons? Which cartoons? All of them? Or just some of them? Should it exceed all of their live action remakes? How do you know what Disney expected? You seem to want to insinuate that well they don't have a new movie lined up must mean they are disappointed. I don't know do they have another Lion King live action lined up right now? Maybe they want to take their time. Maybe they have a thousand other projects. And as for your confidence in the status quo. None of these franchises should have confidence in the status quo. They need to evolve to maintain interest. And I would say Star Wars above all else has done that. Better than anyone. Maybe down the road Marvel will exceed and pass them. But even in that case that doesn't make Star Wars some sort of failing franchise. Its not Terminator, or Aliens or even Star Trek which has struggled on and off for a long time at least on the big screen. I can't really convince you that it will all be fine and I am not sure you want it to be fine. You seem to have a very negative viewpoint about the franchise in general. And thats ok. Good luck.

 

Yes, I'm aware that this discussion is opinion based. I don't find your argument, that you seem very confident in, despite it being a lot of conjecture, to be very compelling. Your entire argument is based upon the idea that, in spite of past performance, Disney is expecting the franchise to do better than that or else it's a failure. I don't think they would put such expectations on a franchise in order for it to be at least successful. No one is saying that the franchise hasn't had some troubles recently (at least I'm not) but that doesn't mean that the box office of this films (at least as projected) is evidence the franchise is in trouble or that Disney would be unhappy with it. I think you think Disney have higher expectations (I said sky-high because the profitability of these films is already significant) than they do. Previous profitability trends are absolutely relevant to these discussions - in fact they would be relevant to Disney's own projections.

 

I don't really think we will know the legs on this thing till after the New Years. Right now they look pretty good, but with these blockbusters these days who knows. Not much in the way of competition helps a lot. Sometimes with these block busters timing is everything. I liked the movie but timing is big with these things. I remember when suicide squad came out which lord was not a good movie. But there literally was nothing for a month or more in the same genre or even close and it just kept chugging. The box office legs on that movie were remarkable for what it was.

 

I do think they have re-adjusted. After the great success of TFA and Rogue One doing incredibly well for a spin-off, I'm sure they were thinking a second MCU was on the way and that it was a great sign for possibly sustaining two movies a year, one big, one smaller.

And if the success streak had beem unbroken like that, there would be dates booked for the next three years as well. Noone, least of all Disney, presses pause when the going is good.

That didn't happen so IMO the re-adjustment period happened before TROS came out. Will they be content with 1 billuon? Of course it's one billion. Would they in their little bean counter hearts have wanted more than TLJout of the touted "finale of 40 year Saga"? Yes, I absolutely think so.

 

Yeah, so I don't disagree with any of this though.

 

What you see right now is in line with how this sort of schedule has worked in the past. It's way too early to judge its legs from that. It should lose plenty of ground on TLJ in the next week, as that is when TLJ had the strongest days of the holiday coming up.

TROS should reach and then top TLJ sometime over this weekend, but then get trounced on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday might be close due to TROS getting the new years day boost, but that also means that it will drop a ton on Thursday, which didn't happen for TLJ, as its schedule was completely different.

 

Agreed... this has not gone the way Disney expected. And whilst no one can talk about TROS not being a box office success (or the ST as a whole), Disney would have had different expectations and will of course be examining a much more detailed set of metrics. TLJ seemed polarising to audiences, whilst TROS has had a critical mauling... and these outcomes do impact the bottom line (which is more than just box office).

What will be interesting is how Disney respond. I imagine that their risk aversion will intensify and I’d be amazed if they announce a new live action film any time soon (which may be a good thing in the long run).

 

The 2022 films details are set to be announced next month apparently. They won't want to keep their shareholders in the dark regarding where they are heading on the feature front.

 

Yeah I did hear that. It will be interesting to see if they commit to the schedule of the next live action film being released in 22. At this stage, if I were a betting man, the only thing that has the legs (conceptually) is a KOTOR. I think we’d all be behind that idea... but they obviously need the right amount of development time.

 

Since they already had the Jedi origins story in development I'd imagine that's on the cards. Either that or whatever Fiege has in mind.

 

Oh boy. In the last 24 hours the gloomer brigade has really been in force.

I’m getting “lessons” on opportunity cost, Chinese markets and Bob Iger’s expectations.

People are acting like every film makes a billion dollars.

In history, only 14 films have made 500m US domestic and 1B worldwide. This film will be the 15th. It will also be the 4th Star Wars property to do that in 5 years. How many MCU films have done that ever? Wait for it...4

What a bunch of gloomers thinking the Star Wars brand is in trouble.

 

Ok, so that’s the second time now you’re putting words into my mouth in as many posts. I never said Disney considered it a failure. Not once. I in fact made sure to point out a few posts ago, I was not implying or trying to say that Disney is thinking of cutting Star Wars out.

Please, please, please if you’re going to respond to me, read what I write, maybe read it twice. I’m not interested in conversations with people that feel the need to put words in my mouth or attribute made up motives about what I’ve said. Mischaracterizing someone’s position is just a horrible way to have a conversation! I’m not even going to address the person above you as their wall of text is nothing but addressing what they think I think or why I think it.

Now... again, I am in no way suggesting Disney sees Star Wars as a failure. However... multiple things can be true at once. To me, it’s obvious that Disney is at the very least worried about what is going on with their IP! This is not just because of TROS! This is because of multiple factors that have spoken too numerous times now over the few days I’ve been in this thread. However, that does not mean Disney is giving up, or thinks Star Wars is a failure, or thinks it can’t be corrected. These are attributes that people here are attaching to others arguments in order to make yourself right. It’s a pretty ****** thing to do!

Conjecture? And when you give your opinion on whether Dusney feels the IP might be in trouble or not, you’re using rock solid, hard core, stolen data from the Disney vaults? Or are you giving your opinion based on what little information you have as well.. or simply conjecture? Compelling argument? What compelling argument has been made to counter anything I’ve said? Ya know, besides “$1 billion is a big number”, or I’m a super negative meanie poopie head.

I get it, it took me a while to figure it out, but I finally did when I took of my socks and realized I couldn’t count to a billion using my toes. It’s a big number, but it’s getting to be a smaller and less meaningful number when it comes to Box Office. TROS will be the 9th film this year to cross a billion WW. The 9th...

There is a chance TROS will fall behind the likes of Frozen, Captain Marvel, The Lion King etc etc.

Again, am I suggesting Iger is ready to shutter LFL? Absolutely not! However, if anyone believes Iger bought LFL, thinking $1.1 or $1.2 billion was an acceptable Box Office for the final film of a 45 year old story of a beloved franchise, as he also watched Solo go up in flames, TLJ possibly leaving money on the table, merchandise sales falling, Directors and writers being fired or straight up walking away to go to Netflix, trilogies cancelled, stand alone movies being cancelled. A character in a steaming show getting more play and buzz than the $240 million movie they were about to put out...Galaxies Edge opening travesty, Iger openly admitting to miscalculating how much Star Wars the public is willing to consume when he admitted to Star Wars fatigue, Kevin Fiege being brought into LFL... I mean if you can’t look at that list and at least say to yourself that LFL might... might have some pretty significant problems. That Disney might be worried about their IP... That there might be some trouble in the house of mouse when it comes to Star Wars. If your response is $1 billion is a big number, or I’m just dealing in conjecture, or I’m a super negative meanie poopie head...than we might as well agree to disagree at this point!

 

Must be getting too depressing in the haters thread.