ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Dammit @Othini I was JUST about to post a link to that article!!!

Anyway, the most surprising thing to me in that article is that he outed Aladdin as his example of "what if" something didn't work. That's harsh and I don't know if that is just him reflecting on what the interdweebs have been saying about it or if he's hinting at something else.

@AhsokaSolo and @BigAl6ft6 there WAS a time LONG LONG ago when people would go to the movies as social events. Hell, often times it didn't even matter what movies-you just went. But it's becoming more and more evident that the movie-going experience HAS to be an experience in of itself and not for the social aspect. There's social media for that. Now you go for very specific films and others, while they may do well, fall mostly by the wayside. And it just so happens that Disney owns most of those movies that people go to for the movies themselves.

 

I wanted him to say «bring the handkerchief» to Episode IX instead of Lion King. But obviously, he has yet to see a cut of Episode IX. No Mary Poppins sequel is no surprise and yes, they seem a bit worried about Aladdin. But no studio boss will adresse this directly.

Whole interview here:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/n...er-streaming-pixar-post-john-lasseter-1187054

 

Well yeah true but he saw scenes from IX. They're just not edited at this point. MSW said there would be tears so we'll see as we move closer.

 

MSW has to be careful with these kinds of statements. "There will be tears" is a bit dramatic, the kind I expect from those clickbait Star Wars leaks channels.

 

Oh, there will be tears when the end credits of Episode IX starts. Happy tears. And sad tears.

And our long and lasting ( but not everlasting) box office thread trilogy ( + Rogue One and Solo) will come to an end.
Not sure if i will continue here after Episode IX although i look forward to Benioff and Weiss and their stuff.

 

Reading the whole interview and the tone of the piece I think he's just being frank given how the reaction has been to the last trailer. If a studio head was trying to hide that a film had a problem I doubt they'd say that. He could easily have stopped at the Solo example and just not mentioned Aladdin.

Taking him at face value when he says he thinks it's a "terrific film" it's easy to see a Solo comparison. Good film, generally liked by audiences, but bad marketing (in this case revealing the unfinished/bad Genie CG to soon) and general apathy at the box office (the Star Wars origin film no one really asked for, another Disney remake) meant it under performed. I can see why he'd link the two and why they probably are worried about it's performance now.

 

Likewise the marketing for Aladdin has been atrocious as well. The latest teaser (only 1 minute long) was clearly rushed together and they haven't even released a full trailer and next week is MARCH. If marketing was the problem with Solo, then you'd think that they'd learn their lesson and market Aladdin better. But the question is CAN they? The marketing for CM has been insane yet unrevealing. End Game doesn't need conventional marketing and can just have teasers and we'd be fine. Dumbo's had solid marketing but the projections are for a weak run. Seems like they don't know how to approach the quantity of films they are putting out there, even in a 3 month period.

 

Yeah, they're really between a rock and a hard place now with marketing Aladdin. We're 3 months from release so they need to start the big push soon, but after the teaser reaction they need to fix Genie before they do.

Best guess is they'll attempt a shorter, intense campaign. Ideally we'd be seeing a full trailer next week to attach to Captain Marvel. Best guess now is we won't see one until late March, just in time to go with Dumbo. Dumbo will have less eyes on it but they could also attach to Avengers to try and give it a push. Worst case scenario for them would be no trailer until early April, where it has to compete with IX for attention, again attached to Endgame for maximum exposure. They'll sacrifice length of marketing to make sure Genie looks right because they can't afford another reaction like they had after the Grammys. In the meantime they can release a final poster early March (much easier to finish a single image of Genie). A good push from the start of April is still 2 full months. It's not quite a Solo situation because it already had a teaser poster and reasonably well received trailer last year. It's just the big push that's been delayed/shortened. Honestly, this is the one remake where I have a real, emotional stake in it and I will remain optimistic until the end, even if the realist in me has to acknowledge that things aren't looking great for them at the moment.

 

@ChrisLyne The problem is that in April EVERYONE will be talking about End Game, the teaser for SW9 will be released, and I suspect that we'll get trailers for both TS4 and TLK (which seems to have had seamless production). So they will HAVE to get major marketing started in March for sure. Meanwhile, I'd have expected that we'd get a full trailer in time for the Oscars which is Sunday. My guess is that they just can't get it together and THAT is what is more concerning. If marketing is sluggish, it's because they are scrambling. We KNOW they scrambled for Solo due to the departure of the first directors, Howard stepping in, and having to do massive overhaul. With Aladdin, it seems they just can't get the look right and last teaser's reaction has really delayed the first trailer.

 

Yeah, that's exactly what it was. From all reports the shoot went smoothly and test audiences have been positive. The first teaser and poster were both well received last year. It's literally the look of the Genie that's thrown everything. The Grammy trailer was likely supposed to kick things off and it's left them playing defense instead.

They can still start some marketing in March. The final poster can be released as that will just be a still image. If that looks good it could start to turn perceptions around as a LOT more people will see that than the still image they released after the Grammy trailer. They can probably do the first TV spots next month without Genie or showing his human form. The print/billboard ads can start (again, still images). But I honestly wouldn't expect the full trailer now until the end of March at best. They need that CG Genie to be as good as possible before they release the main trailer. It's not ideal, it likely will reduce the box office, but it's better than repeating what happened with the Grammy trailer as that could devastate the box office.

Honestly, I have no idea why they only finalized the Genie's look so late in the game when principal photography finished well over a year ago. They should have been much further ahead at this point and if they were this likely wouldn't have been an issue.

On the subject of late trailers - we still don't have a second trailer for Shazam! yet and that opens at the start of April!

 

@ChrisLyne

That's a GREAT way of putting it! Pretty much sums it up. Btw, the still image released at the time of the Grammy teaser was great I thought. The Genie looked excellent in that image compared to in the actual teaser.

About Shazam!, yeah I am surprised they haven't put out a full trailer for that one. They've had two teasers like Aladdin. I would assume they'd want something to put in front of CM.

Speaking of CM, I am not sure what to take from the social media reactions. They are all very positive-yes. But there's something that strikes me as disingenuous about them. I'm optimistic about the film. It's a real SHAME that there are these anti-female "incel" types that are trying to bring it down for whatever reason (maybe Brie's misconstrued comments that have been twisted around the wrong way and used against her). Maybe it's those who want Marvel to have their first failure. Who knows? We will REALLY get the sense of how critics feel on March 5 when the embargo is lifted (which seems kind of late considering the social media was rather early). It will be interesting. It's also interesting how much lower the "tracking" says the OW will be ($100 million +) compared to BOP which still has it at $160 million. Gonna be interesting. Either the disappointing OW's of 2019 continue or we'll have our first amazing break out.

 

Thanks! Yeah, I'm really hoping they can get the final CG to that level. If they can then the film still has a shot.

I know! We've heard nothing but positive things so no idea why they're leaving it so late. Maybe with such a crowded 2019 line up they figure a shorter, intense campaign is better. Get the audiences attention and get them in theaters straight away rather than try and build hype up over a few months. If it works well for Shazam! that could be a good sign for Aladdin (assuming they can get the CG up to par).

Yeah. I must admit the trailers don't have me excited for it. Don't get me wrong, I'll be there opening weekend and I expect I'll really enjoy it, but the trailers haven't made me go "this is a must see". I'm the guy who thought Guardians would be Marvel's first flop, after that I've never predicted a Marvel misfire. Guardians proved Marvel have earned brand loyalty even if audiences haven't heard of the characters. Sure, Avengers and characters like Spidey and Iron Man will have higher ceilings, but as long as they deliver a good movie I don't see any MCU film flopping in the foreseeable future.

Luckily I've managed to avoid whatever comments Brie made and all the ways they've been twisted. I don't even follow all the cast for Star Wars (I know, sacrilege!). I'm pretty selective with my social media and tend to follow more the creative teams and official accounts, etc. so a lot of the fan backlash and fighting never shows up for me.

 

When I was little, I watched Shazam on TV and this one, while it looks "cute-ish" is not like the original so it has turned me off a bit.

 

I've never seen the original series. Hopefully one day DC Universe comes to the UK and they put the series on there.

 

@jedijax

Batman vs Superman got "positivish" early screening reviews too. Not saying CM is going to be bad at all (actually I think it's going to be very solid) just saying you can never put too much stock into early screeing reviews. The people who go to that do not want to lose their access therefore they are not going to say anything that is going to rock the boat.

Personally I am a bit more concerned with End Game then CM. I think CM will be a solid origin movie. I really don't have much worry about that at all. What concerns me a bit is how they are going to recon CM into End Game. It just feels a bit shoehorned in. The Russo Brothers even admitted they struggle a bit to put her into the mix. Recons are always tough IMHO. To me it would best and waited until after Infinity War to introduce Captain Marvel in a Black Widow lead movie. That could been the start of Avengers 2.0. But for some reason they seem to be in a rush on this for whatever reason. Having the Russo Brothers directing End Game puts at me ease though. I am sure they will make sure CM isn't some sort of Superman type figure in End Game who just saves the day without any real help or danger. I think she will be more like a tide turning character who perhaps just keeps Thanos occupied enough for the others to defeat him or my hope, CM is basically Adam Warlock from the original comic who kinda knocks some sense into him. I think if they do one of those two options it will work well but I still think it would best to let the original Avengers end this together.

As for Shazam, I am mildly optimistic. It seems like WBmakes solid enough stand alone movies (Man of Steel, WW, Acquaman). It's when they try to bring their characters together that it all goes to hell.

On the box office front, How to Train Your Dragon 3 is going for a $45 million OW. That be a welcome relief to the movie houses. They been empty basically since the year started.

 

HTTYD3 does look very stunning visually. Never got into the franchise though. My daughter, with her mild sensory-processing issues, tends to be very sensitive about "scary" things (which is why SW hasn't clicked and I don't think we'll be able to convince her to see TLK-she's scared of Scar). Does extremely well in school but is very very sensitive. I hope the Jafar snake scenes in Aladdin are "okay" because she is interested in seeing that.

 

How to Train your Dragon: The Hidden World is a beautiful and touching final chapter of the series. Hope its doing $ 50 mill + OW.

 

Looks like media outlets are FINALLY taking aim at the trolls that are purposely trying to torch CM. It didn't work for BP and with the positive hype for CM, it won't work there either. However, while I can see the OW being great, I do see CM having shorter legs that many expect. It should be strong for the first 2-3 weeks but then level off and drop from there. I don't see the cultural phenomena that BP was.

 

They were trolling Star Wars and TLJ as well remember. I have little or no patience any longer for this stuff. Yes, its good that movies reflects on our political instincts and feelings, it should. And people now has a lot of freedom to express their opinons and expose them to everyone. And then instead it goes from being personal to some sort of tribal mass orgasms, where people are allowed to hate and throw **** at others.

If any of those comes along this forum again when Episode IX is released, i will put people on ignore, something i have never done. This forum is very well moderated though and i have full faith in that not going to happen.

Lets discuss movies, stories and yes, the box office.

 

How to Train Your Dragon 3 now with a projected $ 60 mill North America OW. $ 17 mill opening day incl previews i think.

Alita falling like a rock. But this is where the box office of 2019 starts.

 

How To Train Your Dragon (Mar. 2010): $43,732,319 opening; 4.98 opening to total multiplier; avg. yearly ticket price $7.89
How To Train Your Dragon 2 (Jun. 2014): $49,451,322 (+13.1% up from 2010); 3.58; $8.17 (+3.6% up from 2010)
How To Train Your Dragon 3 (Feb. 2019): $62,500,000 Deadline projection (+26.4% up from 2014); $9.11 (2018) (+11.5% up from 2014)

 

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I think the forum will be ready for it this time and take the lead on maintaining order. This place went crazy in December 2017. Like a nest of trolls fell out of a tree. The forum constantly crashing didn't help either. December 2019 will be better. It's also going to help having the Mandalorian and Clone Wars back. Lots of Star Wars.

So next week is when the 2019 Box Office really gets started. It's been quite for a long time. That's going to help How To Train Your Dragon 3 and Captain Marvel.

 

It's nice to see that 2019 will get out of its slump (which I was never really concerned about considering the movies that have been released so far). We're about to head into the jungle of massive hits. Nice to see Dragon opening bigger than expected.

It will also be nice to see that these review bombers are being called out. The more people who disregard all of these audience-based %'s on RT, the better.

 

I suppose some people will walk into Endgame & walk straight out after seeing the EP9 trailer on the big screen - not a bad way for Disney to increase revenue for Endgame.....

 

Not sure if you were serious about that. Probably not.