ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

32 days complete.

Domestic: #15 All Time. <$10 million to 14.

WW: #40 All Time. Will become 39 today passing Jurassic Park.

 

Jesus. Why do you keep posting this. 3 movies are going over 500 million domestic in 2019 and Star Wars is one of them. I don't care if it earned 400 million in its first weekend and the rest after that. Honestly give it a rest.

 

Keep it coming Magnar!! Love the data!

 

hey TROS passed both Joker and Frozen II domestically, that's pretty sweet, so it'll be #3 of 2019 movies behind Lion King and Endgame and only 3 movies hit the 500 million dollar range in North America.

 

Because "Days to 90%" is not a thing, but he really wants it to be.

I'm personally more interested in "Days to 64%" but nobody has that info on hand.

 

Where is the days to 100 percent. That would be awesome. I remember this when Suicide squad came out. It had this incredibly consistent run from the 4th weekend on. 12 million then 9 million then 5 million then 4 million then 3 million. Weekend after weekend. Mostly cause there was nothing else out there. Its drops were like 18 percent then 19 percent ect. 30 days to 90 percent! In the end it meant no one liked the movie and they rebooted the franchise anyway.

 

It is a consolidated form of accounting for how fast a movie drops overall instead of looking at a table of % change from day to day or week to week. 90% is chosen because the typical movie on the chart does close to 90% in one month.

I'm not the only person who does it. Here's someone else's from another board (ResetEra) similar example who uses 4 week and 10 weeks as milestones.

 

How are the average drops calculated in that chart?

 

Here's what (PhoncipleBone) post said, "And for the weekend and weekly drops on Skywalker, that is using only 2 and 3 drops respectively, while all the other films in the chart have 10 weeks, so that skews that number slightly for now until more time goes on. It also screws with the averages at the bottom. Because once you remove TROS then the avg gross at 4 weeks is about 90%."

 

Yikes. It's as bad as I thought.

Here's a question...

Three movies open to $150M in their first week. Over the course of their respective runs one movie averages 89% WoW drops, one movie averages 50% WoW drops, and one movie averages 11% WoW drops. Which movie made the most money?

 

TROS is tracking exactly as I thought it would. I knew it wasn't going to make as much money as the other ST films because of the negative blowback for Disney & The Last Jedi. It wouldn't matter how entertaining it is. Personally, I loved TROS. I could care less about the 'movie critics'. I use my own counsel to determine what I enjoy. It seems general audiences like it more than some fans and many critics. In fact, it's actually done well despite being 'boycotted' by 'fans'.

 

Looks like today might end up very close to 1M.

 

Yep that's right and before TROS was even released a lot of people on here were posting:

#1 Endgame
#2 Lion King
#3 TROS

Some flipped between TROS being #2 but this top 3 were always the top 3........

 

I predicted
#1 Tyler Perrys A MadeA Family Funeral
#2 Men in Black- International
#3 Rambo- Last blood

Not sure what happened all really successful franchises. I will do better next year.

 

The process is on its way. Theaters have been gradually squeezing more money out of less public for quite a few years now. Eventually, there won't be a margin for upping prices that will compensate the erosion of audience.

 

If this is the next Hunger Games movie I think I'm out.

Teen Vogue - The Hunger Games Prequel Releases First Excerpt to Fan Backlash

In other news Bad Robot getting involved in the DC 'dark' hero universe.

 

Wow seeing Resetera linked and posted on this box office thread shocked me.

Resetera looks like a video game forum... But it is also a very negative atmosphere. A political activism forum that bans free speech that goes against their narrative. They don't welcome anyone with different worldviews from their mod staff.

They are an off shoot of neogaf.

The Empire(neogaf) went down and the more extreme The First Order(Resetera) was born.

I've been a member of neogaf since the late 1990s when I was just a kid playing video games.

I watched neogaf evolve from fun forum of teenage boys talking about video games and just behaving like typical teen boys.... to the most toxic echo chamber of negativity and hate.

And they have a group of posters with Kelly Marie Tran or Daisy Ridley avatars(all men who worship Daisy and Tran in a creepy way) intentionally trying to weaponize Star Wars as political discussion to get other members banned.

Sorry had to vent.

Just wanted to warn ppl who aren't familiar.

 

Well, I loved TROS more than TLJ, which I loved more than TFA, which I loved more than 10 years of no new Saga films. But not everyone here shares that opinion and I wanted to be ‘balanced’ and not always present stuff that supports my side of the equation.

Mendelsohn is trying to be balanced, but he’s coming across as bipolar to me.

 

This is true, but I was thinking more like
EG: $ 690 million
LK: $650 million
TROS: $630 million

 

I had it as a fight between TROS and TLK for domestic number 2 but I thought TROS would win. Looks very unlikely now but still clinging to that hope.

 

There’s no chance it passes The Lion King domestically. It will max out closer to $515 million or so domestically, I think. It will be the International take now that decides whether it can catch The Dark Knight Rises for 30th all time or not. International take seems to be more resilient and less affected by Rotten Tomatoes overall. This has been seen many times over internationally over the years. If TROS can leg out another $35-40 million or so overseas — and I think it can — it should end in that 30th spot all time (pre-inflation). Around a 17% decrease from the 14th highest grossing film of all time (pre-inflation): TLJ and around 9.5% decrease from the previous “last Star Wars film ever:” ROTS (once ROTS has been adjusted for inflation. It’s higher obviously without that adjustment).

 

There's absolutely no chance whatsoever for that to happen, unfortunately.

 

Geee....that title...sounds familiar. lol A ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. A song of ice and fire.

 

Makes total sense to me. I mean, I’m not into it lol, but he’s Kylo without the girlfriend. And what do you know, he’s mentoring a girl from District 12. I smell Romeo and Juliet parallels

There’s gotta be an audience for this.