ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

Yes. Nothing's written in stone. Star Wars could someday become trendy again among the young. Maybe the Lone Ranger will get another shot too.

 

Oh boy!!! Jabba-oh boy! One step forward, three steps back. You mean maybe Lone Ranger will have aisles with toys and merchandise someday, like Star Wars?

 

That Lone Ranger analogy is absurd. Even outside its heyday, the OT was popular on TV and video, leading into the '95 THX re-releases and the '97 SEs. Books, comics and videogames were being produced in the early '90s despite no new content on primary media being produced. Compare with The Lone Ranger, where interest seemed to trail off in the '60s. IOW, besides the dearth of SW material in the late '80s, the franchise has shown continued interest from the public over its near 40 year history.

Unlike The Lone Ranger, which stopped being popular 50 years ago.

 

Another day. Another Jabbadabbado denial.

 

TFA is supposed to have the widest U.S. release in history, 4,500 theaters. The movies with the widest release that have the highest theater average are:

Avengers: 4,349 theaters, $47,698 theater average
Age of Ultron: 4,276, $44,731
Iron Man 3: 4,253, $40,946
Deathly Hallows 2: 4,375, $38,672

Given how difficult it is to score a big opening weekend a week ahead of Christmas, and TFA unlikely to do much better than $100 million even if as is likely it scores the highest ever December opening, it's going to be a bit disconcerting how empty those theaters are going to be. The ease of finding a TFA show is going to feed into the sense that Star Wars is no longer a real pop culture phenomenon.

At $120 million opening weekend, 4,500 theater release, the theater average is going to be about on par with Attack of the Clones' opening weekend.

That will be a bit startling to people expecting sold out shows and a big sense of opening weekend hysteria like what happened with The Phantom Menace and the original trilogy films.

 

That would still beat Avatar's first weekend theatre average. There are different expectations placed around films that open that time of year.

That said, I actually think it'll be closer to the average for ROTS.

 

Thread title should be changed to ITT Everybody Rags on Jabbadabbadoo for relevance.

 

What mattered most for Avatar was the second weekend and then the third. TFA will be better off opening in fewer theaters. Another marketing error from Disney.

 

This thread has something that unfortunately could be missing from TFA: a strong and entertaining villain.

 

ROTS had an adjusted opening of $137 million Fri-Sun but it opened on a Thursday. It's 4-day adjusted opening was an astonishing $201 million. Yes-$201 mill in today's dollars.

ROTK had an adjusted opening of about $98 million. However, it opened on a Wednesday. It's 5-day opening was an amazing $167 million the week before Christmas. One could argue that if it had a 3-day opening, it would be close to that $167 million. (that's the arugment people raise when they say TFA should not open on a Wednesday or Thursday to maximize the 3-day total).

A 3-day opening of $100 million for TFA would be disastrous. Nobody's going to predict that kind of number. Everyone is going to be tracking it at least $150 million but probably more. A $100 million weekend would be a travesty and the movie would be lucky to hit $350 million domestically. It would be the first SW movie ever to make under $400 million in adjusted grosses and is $30 million lower than ROTS's actual gross. And that's if it's lucky. If it does that poorly, it's not going to make another $100 million the following weekend-no way in hell. If the word of mouth is good, that's going to impact the opening weekend BEFORE Friday ever hits.

 

So you've lived long enough to see yourself become the villain?

 

I could turn this around and say "TFA will have great legs with a small drop-off on the second weekend. It'll also have the biggest opening weekend ever for that weekend and the biggest theatre average". That sounds pretty good to me.

Edit: At this juncture, I'd say an opening weekend of around $135-140m would be reasonable.

 

I completely agree with that except for the unknown about how well it holds up on Xmas, but if it's reasonably good I think weekend 2 with Xmas Friday will be big.

 

For those who don't want to speak with a troll, MI:Rogue Nation is heading towards a lower 40's opening:

http://deadline.com/2015/07/mission...on-vacation-tom-cruise-box-office-1201485683/

A bit surprised that isn't in more of the low $50's range given the success of MI: Ghost Protocol and the fantastic reviews it's receiving. Perhaps though Rogue Nation is following Ghost Protocol's model of being a slow burn at the box office instead of just bursting on the scene in a blaze of glory. Certainly the calendar is stacking up for Rogue Nation to dominate August. The only two blockbuster movies in August are "The Man From U.N.C.L.E." which is getting good early buzz IMO will have a tough time finding an audience and The Fantastic Four reboot appears to be DOA.

 

Guys, Jabba's not trolling. Honestly, SW fans are the worst fanbase. Nothing can ****ing please any of you. JFC. I'm so disillusioned.

 

MI: Ghost Protocol which I just mention in my previous post is a perfect example. It didn't start off with a bang but did great week after week. I think our troll is forgetting that movie theaters have become a huge destination on Christmas. People get done earlier with family stuff and are looking for something to do. And considering the fact that Christmas falls on a Friday this year, TFA could have one of the biggest second weekends in box office history.

 

Are actually reading his posts? If you were, you see he is trolling. I been skeptical about some parts TFA including what the end total of the BO will be (I think some of the high end BO numbers are hyperbole) but I also know it's going to be a smash hit. I am not delusional like he is.

 

I am. He's being cautious like most people who grew up on the OT but were let down by the PT. It's a generational thing.

 

The thing is that both Avatar and Titanic were new. Word of mouth was the only way those movies would excel because of the unknown. Unknowns don't come out of the box the way established franchises do. And established franchises don't regain composure if they don't perform well out of the box.

Ant-Man is relatively well liked from reviews. However, the $58 million weekend wasn't going to improve the second time around. It's somewhat new but part of the Marvel world. A $100 million weekend for TFA will actually repel audiences. It's not that they care about the money. It's that the headlines will be all over the place saying how poorly it did. And people will respond by, well, not responding. And Disney is not going to market the movie to make $100 million.

 

I am in that generation. Saw ROTJ during it's 83' run when I was five. Was totally let down by the PT. Still doesn't mean I make silly statements to inflame people and/or totally inaccurate.

Word of mouth/reviews are going to matter the difference between TFA being a "hit" and a "bloodly bleeping hit!". Plus too let's remember when it is coming out. Middle December = weather can play a factor. Also too like I been saying for awhile now, December movies that become runaway hits often are slow burns at the box office instead of like summer movies which make a ton the first few weeks and then fade away rather quickly. The two biggest openings in history for December & January are "The Hobbit" and "American Sniper". Neither one made $90 million. Disney knows this. They know TFA is looking at $90-120 million opening. That isn't their concern. Their concern that gets solid reviews/good word of mouths. Because if it does, then there is no reason that TFA cannot dominate the box office for three months. They are not worried about an opening weekend that doesn't make $150 million. They are worried about the long term run of it.

 

One thing about superheroes is that they're very mainstream. The casual audience loves Batman, Spider-Man, Ironman, etc. They were HUGE even before the blockbuster craze began 10 years ago or so. It's part of the American culture.
SW should really be compared more to ST. It has a much smaller audience, and one that tends not to be 'cool.' It's for nerds. It's not real. There's no sound in space. The TV shows aren't helping. I guess people liked Battlefront and TFU, but that's still that nerd (expanding into video gamers) demographic.

Y'all are nuts if you're thinking it'll reach Avatar.

It should still crack Top 10 highest grossing, top 5, doubt it.

Episode IX, on the other hand, I could see beating Avatar because it'll succeed box office wise due to being a sequel.

 

I'm operating at a disadvantage because I don't live in the U.S. and so I don't really know how the Christmas period works. Here in Australia, there's a five-week school holiday over the period, and Boxing Day (Dec 26th) is traditionally the biggest moviegoing day of the year. Keep in mind this period overlaps with our summer. So it's counter-intuitive for me to think of Christmas as a movie dead zone.

But I do know that good/interesting/zeitgeist-tapping movies typically do amazingly well over that period in the U.S. They aren't the wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am front-loaded beasts of the U.S. summer, but they are the slow-burn success stories that leave an indelible mark on audiences. It's just a different standard. No one's going to say "Well, TFA's opening weekend couldn't even match that of Furious 7--clearly it's a bomb". They're going to say "TFA had the biggest December opening weekend in history, beating the first Hobbit by a staggering $55m". And then when the second weekend comes in with an incredibly small dropoff, again the headlines will be great. TFA is a big fish in a small pond, and it'll benefit greatly from that.

 

Star Wars is the biggest franchise in cinema history. That being said I am realistic about TFA BO potential. IMO Avatar, Titanic box office returns) are pipe dreams (I don't think anyone movie is coming near those for quite awhile ....maybe for a LONG TIME) with The Avengers and now Jurassic World return unlikely. But could a $400+ domestic run with a billion worldwide run be in it's future? Yes definitely. And that be monsterious return. Any idiot who says otherwise needs to get their head examine.

Artoo-Dion

Christmas back in the day was a more quieter time for movies in the US with the exception of family movies. Superman: The Movie was one of the few that was a big blockbuster action film that I can think of that opened in December back in the day. Most of the time it was again family flicks. Over the past 20 years but in particular 15 years that is really changed. Now the movies is a huge destination for people over the holidays even if's not a family/holiday theme flicked. That is why Disney was okay with the December opening. Had this been ten years ago even I doubt they would given the go-ahead. Either they would held JJ's feet to the fire in order to get it out this May or simply pushed it back to Spring 2016 and figure out their calendar for both Star Wars and Marvel at another time.

 

Here's a what if, what if Rey hits a nerve with the really young girl demographic - one that is likely SW's weakest.

Those girls might really be attracted to Rey in a sort of Hunger Games sort of way.

That would really pump up SW.

 

I think that's what they're hoping for. I doubt it'll be the next Hunger Games, but it's bound to receive a bump from girls who might not see SW otherwise.