Senate It's Joever: The 2024 US Presidential Election Thread

Where are you getting this information? I see mixed results across the board so far - about half the articles I've looked at say Trump gained this time, half say Harris gained.

 

I for one am shocked that Glitter would put out an "analysis" that conspicuously echoes GOP talking points despite him being Very Neutral this election season. I guess we still have 13 days for Gavin Newsom to step into the nomination.

 

In other news, a woman taking a hike in Australia got trapped in a crevice suspended by her feet. She'd been reaching for her phone when she slipped. She didn't get the phone back.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgeyezggpezo

 

Add that to the nightmare-buffet bin.

 

Is this a metaphor for the election then, or what?

 

I didn’t really see any lies or outright propaganda in the analysis, though I think the conclusion header at the top is a little wishful thinking. It’s still a coin flip, though at this point I think Trump is the slight favorite by the slimmest of margins.

Election Day could come and it wouldn’t be the biggest of surprises for the swing states to fall Harris’s way.

If Trump does end up winning it’s hard to blame Harris for any of it. She was the heir apparent and anointed. Biden should have long withdrawn from the race and allowed a primary to take place. Hell they should have allowed an actual primary to occur even when he was still in the race. It’s all on him, but also on his enablers who tried to lie and conceal his true condition from the country.

 

Being governed by a demented felon can't really be as bad as it sounds can it? I mean, it sounds really bad, but you can't know unless you give it a shot, and I'm definitely curious.

 

Anyway Lisa the senator of Alaska whose last name I can’t pronounce endorse Petola for her election.

honestly I don’t know why she doesn’t endorse Kamala at this point.

 

I'm not sure I believe 5 voters have changed their minds in the last few weeks, much less enough to swing several states. I think everyone had their minds made up in July and all these "polls" are just to keep people entertained or nervous or frustrated or bewildered or just make us all plain crazy.

 

I think that misses the extent to which many people that will vote still haven't made decisions on the extent that they're voting. And for states expected to be close, it doesn't take that many people changing/rethinking their plans to change an election.

 

My sister literally called me to ask me to explain the ballot measures in Massachusetts as she was filling them out. My sister votes on every election more because I would be mad at her if she didn’t and she literally asked me calling saying what do these questions mean again. I tried to explain them as unbiased as I could. But I think people just don’t comprehend how many low information voters there are. Voters who instead rely on friends and family to more or less tell them what to do.

like if I was a big fan of Jill Stein I am sure every member of my family would support them. I think k there is a word for those people. A super voter or something I’ll look it up.

point is I don’t think polls really matter all that much.

 

In No **** Weekly:

 

One of the ballot measures is about rideshare and unionizing and my sister asked me what a union was. I have failed if I have never mentioned a union or have mentioned them so little she didn’t know what they were

 

What about being “shocked” by reporting of basic facts? Is this disinformation because it “echoes GOP talking points”?

 

Ballot questions are always double negatives too. Like ..by voting “no” you mean that yes you don’t agree that the measure should proceed.

 

Where's my facepalm gif when I need it. It's not you who failed, though. It's the high school your sister went to. More specifically, her government teacher.

 

I think it’s reasonable to say who leads in mail-in ballots will shift back-and-forth between now and the time all ballots are done being counted.

With that in mind, tracking who’s ahead on any given day is like looking at where the stock market closes on said day and subsequently trying to predict whether or not it will be up or down for the year.

 

It’s also that the only person in my entire family who was even in a position for a union job was my grandfather (trucker) but he was always staunchly conservative and didn’t like unions. Or at least ai assume he didn’t as he was staunchly conservative but was one of those people who says you should never talk politics

I should ask my uncle next time we see him

my grandmother was a teacher maybe she was in a union I’ll have to ask my mom.

but everyone else in my family is in business or a pilot but that last one is recent and I haven’t asked if he is on a union. He’s air Canada so most likely.

my brother was in construction I should probably talk to him about that.

 

In this particular election, I agree. The problem is that it undermines the conventional wisdom of Democrats having superior GOTV operations which enables them to dominate early voting, which was true for 2020. So now they need to have the age-old debate over whether early voting is just “cannibalizing” their Election Day base or whether it’s indicative to a shift in the electorate, which is the question they’d rather not be considering.

 

But it doesn’t cannabikize anything an early vote is just as good as an Election Day vote.

honestly, to consider election day election day is pretty dumb. I think one should be like oh it’s more like election several weeks

 

While I see the point you're raising, I think I've seen some stuff that getting people to vote early can help them then target additional get out the vote efforts just on people who haven't already voted yet, so it can function a bit more iterative and you can hone in on people that still haven't voted.

 

GOTV operations typically encourage early voting, and Democrats have traditionally enjoyed a larger share of their base voting early vs the shares on GOP side. If that trend is changing then it’s concerning for Democrats.

That’s exactly true, which is why it should be concerning for Democrats if they are losing their advantage in early voting. It’s an advantage they enjoyed in previous cycles and losing it makes things harder for them overall.

The Trump campaign has tried an unusual approach to GOTV this cycle, they’ve basically outsourced all of it to super pacs, most notoriously Elon is running one of them. If Trump wins it will likely change the way presidential campaigns are organized going forward, as recent court rulings have loosened rules for coordination between super pacs and campaigns.