It's a mediocre franchise with nearly none of the old magic from the Potter movies. The only parts I liked were things that referenced the old movies. I saw the first 2 on DVD and haven't seen the new one. I won't.
While I've enjoyed FB more than the HP series (as it skews towards a more adult audience and has a more interesting and consistent setting; plus with the first two HP movies just not being very good to begin with), that approach does isolate it from attracting new younger viewers (thus the most recent trailer going hard on both the nostalgia and imagery of kid actors) which will handicap it compared to the HP series. So, I think, in conjunction with the triple controversy and still being in the pandemic recovery area (where big openings are now possible but not regular), that's why you're seeing a reduced opening compared to previous entries.
With WB titles, there's also the (generally correct) assumption that it won't be very long until the title is available to stream on HBOMax.
@Thena I agree though with The Batman it seems like it's legs were ending before it dropped on HBOMax so I don't think it effected it much. When it comes to Fantastic Beasts 3, I think it's lack of interest then anything else that is effecting it's box office numbers. So far to me, both the WB and Paramount shorter movie theater release before it comes out on their streaming service (though WB window is shorter then Paramount) does not seem to be effecting their box office total. Both Jackass 4 and Scream 5 did well for Paramount while obviously The Batman has done well for WB.
at least some of the lack of interest is due to JK Rowling’s transphobic views that has contributed to my lack of interest anyways, to the point where I have no interest in seeing this latest film
WB greenlight Dune Part 2 after it hit 300 million, that seems to be the pandemic line at least from WB which FB3 seems it could scrape together another 100 million. No way it reaches 400 million though. Maybe because WB knew that Dune would make it to 400 million total though.
I think the funniest part of this franchise collapse was how ****ing predictable it was from the outside. First movie? $815m worldwide. Second movie? $655m worldwide. Gee, who could possibly foresee a continued downward trend?
The Secrets of Dumbledore movie certainly feels rather conclusive with barely any cliffhanger-y bits left, almost as if they knew they were only going to get one more shot at it.
@BigAl6ft6 One thing to keep in mind? Dune's budget was incredibly about $40 million less then TSOD. I also think given that it was a duel release via theatrical/streaming at the same time, I think WB was willing to give it a smaller hurdle to clear in terms of getting a sequel. And plus for Dune I believe Denis as always stated that it would be a two-part series (with possible spinoffs like the HBO Max series he helping to develop) while there is supposed to be TWO MORE movies in the FB series. If they were to greenlight another movie, I wonder if the WB brass tells them to "wrap it up". They could potentially move it as a HBO Max release only but at $200 million a pop (again cannot get over the production cost for it) I don't see that happening either. It is interesting to have watch the series which was started out for so much fanfare absolutely collapse like @Ramza mention above. My wife and I saw it the first Tuesday out (was one of the first outings I specifically remember it was just the two of us after my daughter was born that previous April) as we were both excited since obviously are HP fans. The second one? Rented it on Redbox. This one? Yeah we will wait to it drops on HBOMax...maybe. Besides the fact they just not been well put together (which honestly is very surprising since how well David Yates did with the last four HP films), it just isn't a interesting time period I think for people.
The time period is probably the biggest hook for the FB films, IMO. If you haven't read the HP books, and are not a child, I'd say the FB films aren't just better entry points into the franchise than the HP films, they're better than the first 2 HP films as well. That said, they do have to manage expectations moving forward. TSOD was supposed to be a more "budget" entry but costs ran up due to the pandemic and paying off Depp. Add in the reduction in box office from being in a pandemic recovery era as well as the weaker box office release window (I'm sure they would have released this in November or July if they could have) and that'll definitely factor into the calculus for any future films.
I will say that this is probably the healthiest box office line-up we've had in a very long time. Kids have The Bad Guys (even if it looks pretty average, it seems to be finding enough that audience), Sonic 2 and, alongside the larger scale fantasy audience, Fantastic Beasts (even if that is crashing). But alongside Northman for heavy drama, Unbearable Weight and Everything Everywhere for meta dramedy, and the legs on Lost City for full comedy, Father Stu for the faith-based audience and Morbius for no one . Still, with the past year being almost week-one-and-done releases for films, that's a startling refreshing amount of options. I still have to see at least three of those.
Secrets of Dumbledore is probably going to make less than $100 at the US box office, so those next two films likely aren’t happening.
I'd wait and see what it does on HBO Max first; it's still pulling in "ok" numbers overseas, and if it does gangbusters on Max (like The Batman) they may greenlight the next one to see how it does on streaming...
The financers must have understood this movie could not turn a profit in its theatrical run. I don't think it would have happened at its original budget, before it ran over by at least half. I'm glad The Northman got made, but it shows how expensive it is to scale up the Eggers drive for authenticity and immersion. As others have pointed out, he is one of the more interesting auteurs of genre cinema like Ari Aster, Alex Garland, or Charlie Kaufman. Like Kaufman, Eggers has carved out a creative space that no one else can compete in or for that matter wants to compete in. It's not highly commercial.
The old rules for theatrical success are out the window with streaming. Fantastic Beasts’ fate won’t be decided in the theater.
That's a shame. Despite its problems, it would have been nice for this series to conclude closer to the events of HP so it could be used as a proper introduction to the world instead of just a prequel series.