main
side
curve
  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2023.

  1. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    But even those...maybe a couple of showings of a couple of films are doing alright.

    But the precipitous fall off in revenue on these films tell us most of the theaters running any print older then 2 weeks, is probably playing to a near empty room.

    It cannot just be about the next new release. If it is, then they better start making A LOT more movies for the theaters.

    They need a new movie...per screen...every 2-3 weeks. The days when something like Titanic played to sold out shows for 4 months and hung on in the theater for 6 months are ancient and almost forgotten.

    For the theaters to survive, it must be more content across the entire calendar, not a concentration.

    Theaters don't do "seasonal" staffing very well...especially when the key seasons are opposite each other on the calendar (Summer/Christmas).

    Is this likely? No. Is this a serious problem for the theater-owners? Oh yeah...they aren't dancing a jig yet.

    I suspect most independent theater owners are looking for good box office draw on the calendar to leverage as a sales pitch to "get out" of owning these places.

    There may be some nice weekends interspersed, and there may even be an upward trajectory yet from the darkest doldrums of COVID...but the writing is on the wall for this form of entertainment in it's current mass-audience format.

    The only question is how the industry evolves. Does it collapse into scattered art houses with little to no backing from studios, who would rather you subscribe to their streamer.

    Or is there more of a small "multiplex" formula with regular new content, exclusivity windows, and other incentives to come out instead of adding more to your watchlist at home.
     
  2. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I don't think that has ever been the case. If your average multiplex has 10-16 screens, and you only ever get 2-3 new wide releases every week at most (with some busier crunch periods being an exception on the higher end, of course), less than half of your screens would likely get a new release on average in that timeframe. Maybe half within a month.

    I think the only films that will be afforded that much runway will be the major xmas releases (be it James Cameron, Star Wars, or the semi-annual musical), since it's now sort of baked into the expectations of the release date.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2024
  3. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    You're right, it has never been the case. But in the past, older releases had a little more carryover then they do now.

    At the very least, the era of the multiplex keeping 3-4 screens dedicated to a single title are over. Heck, even DP3 was down to single auditorium at my theater last week.

    There has to be something to put butts in those seats.

    We've blue-skied potential avenues before here...but ultimately, it is the watchlist at home that the theater's lineup is competing against.

    They have to have intriguing, novel, exclusive, or group/participatory content for people to encourage them to get off the couch and schlep down to the multiplex.
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2024
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  4. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    They have to be promised “cultural event” movies, or gain that unpredictable energy like “Barbenheimer.”

    People casually going to the movies to just go to the movies is pretty much dead. I think for 2 reasons:
    *quality movies/shows on streaming (from the comfort of home)
    *less disposable income at this time (insert the word “inflation” for the 10 trillionth time here)
     
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  5. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Even before the pandemic, that was mainly the first couple weekends for major releases. Today, it may be simply spread across format options (ie: 4 screens to cover IMAX, Dolby, 3D and 2D). Afterwards it was pretty normal to see things cut down to 1 or 2 screens.
     
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  6. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    BB had a $38m Friday ($13m from previews), which may be revised to $40m. Targeting a $90-95m weekend, but it’s believed that the opening was impacted by the NFL starting (and Taylor Swift), so it may make up ground and still hit $100m.

    EDIT- Also worth noting that, before this weekend, Romulus is $50m ww ahead of Covenant's pull, and is at roughly 75% of Prometheus's (the current franchise king).
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2024
  7. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I hope Taylor Swift is getting paid by the NFL to improve ratings. Not that she needs the money. Maybe they just give kelce a dating swift bonus.
     
  8. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Sat AM updates are seeing Beetlejuice jump to $41.5m Fri+previews. Interestingly, same-day/walk-up purchases are accounting for 60% of business. Demo is skewing female at 58% (presumably Ortega's influence and the general goth vibes the franchise is associated with via Ryder). Film has received a B+ cinemascore, an improvement over the original film's B. 36% IMAX/PLF so far.

    So, basically, it has a shot at $100m, and is seemingly assured $90m+ even if there are steep drop-offs.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2024
    Jedimarine likes this.
  9. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    Football widows skewing the figures?
     
  10. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    That Sunday is definitely going to take a dive for NFL but all Sundays are less, Saturday is pretty key
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2024
  11. darth-sinister

    darth-sinister Manager Emeritus star 10 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jun 28, 2001
    Even before the pandemic and streaming, people were less likely to go to the movies on a reoccurring basis due to home viewing options being greater and the comforts of home being superior to sitting in a theater. It isn't nearly as important to see a movie quickly as it used to be.
     
    Ghost likes this.
  12. solojones

    solojones Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Sep 27, 2000
    Kelce remains hilariously underpaid for his actual on field work. But when your podcast sells for $100 million you can keep being underpaid on the field. Thank you very much Trav.
     
    Rylo Ken likes this.
  13. Darth Punk

    Darth Punk JCC Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2013
    Lol @ whoever paid $100m for a podcast.
     
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  14. christophero30

    christophero30 Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    May 18, 2017
    It's just so expensive to go to the movies. My Regal theater is 18 dollars for night shows, 14 or so for a matinee. More for 3D, IMAX, etc. The Regal theater made all my town's other theaters close, including the 4 dollar theater in the mall that showed 3-4 month old movies. I would go there almost every week or 2.. So unless I'm going with someone I will only see Alien or a movie that I am dying to see. A good horror movie will get me there, but i probably see 2-3 movies a year on the big screen.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2024
  15. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    With 75% of the domestic box office, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has opened to $110m. That's the second-best Sept opening after It Chapter 1. Ortega's appeal is cited as one major factor. It did an additional $35m overseas (the original movie basically didn't play overseas, so there's far less of a built-in recognition or nostalgia factor going for it).
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2024
    rocknroll41 and Rylo Ken like this.
  16. solojones

    solojones Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Sep 27, 2000
    Oh I agree, but it's a thing.
     
    rocknroll41 likes this.
  17. Darth Punk

    Darth Punk JCC Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2013
    I don’t know if I believe in karma or reincarnation - but if I did, this Travis fella was definitely a baby born to junkie parents who had cigarettes stubbed out on him, and was put in a microwave for crying too loud in his previous life.
     
    Rylo Ken likes this.
  18. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Beetlejuice x2 only making 34 million overseas vs 110 in North America. WB, like with Twisters, just getting a shrug from international audiences who apparently don't know or care about Tornadoes or Beetlejuice
     
  19. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    The first film wasn't released overseas, so there's a very limited built-in audience or existing nostalgia to build upon. Asia and most of Europe will be a deadzone for the film- or, at best, will have a limiting ceiling as to how well it can perform.

    On the upside, with that domestic opening, even with large drops for the next couple weeks, the film is all but assured to break even at the very least (and very likely still make a profit even in that scenario).

    EDIT-

    Weekend Actuals:
    -BB: $111m (and overseas increased to $36m)
    -DP3: $7m
    -Reagan: $4.8m
    -Romulus: $3.9m
    -Ends With Us: $3.7m

    Twisters is now at a 2.4x multiplier, Romulus at 3.9x, DP3 at 6.4x.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2024
  20. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @christophero30 That is even more expensive than our local Cinemark. It's only $11 for night shows, but the only matinee is before noon; therefore, every showing past 12 PM is $11. Our local "luxury theater" (is one of those meal plus movie theaters that is all decked out) has matinee prices of only $10, but we like the popcorn and soda pop (the only time my wife will ever drink soda is at the theater) better; therefore, we typically go to Cinemark even though they don't have the comfortable chairs which my wife loves, but I don't since those make me fall asleep. Still, two tickets to a mid-afternoon show (3 PM) plus a large popcorn and drink (which we split) were $35 when we went last Saturday to see Beatlejuice Beatlejuice. The price is one of several reasons that it will be the first and only movie we see in the theater this year, just the two of us.

    I must confess, though, that we were a complete mess at the show. We changed our minds twice about where we wanted to sit, so the poor kid at the ticket booth had to change it twice; I wound up spilling a bit of the popcorn, which they were nice enough to refill a bit, etc. Therefore, it might be best we don't go see a movie by ourselves. The next time will be Thanksgiving Eve, and we will have the kiddos but seeing separate movies (my wife and daughter, along with her mother in law will be seeing Moana 2 while I take the boys to see Red One or perhaps Gladiator 2, but my wife is not keen on taking a couple of 8th graders to go see and I am tending to agree with her even though I love to see it in the theater), therefore, we should be much better instead couple of fools. :D

    @The2ndQuest And it is a film that will do well on HBO Max so WB cannot be anything but happy with how its doing.
     
    christophero30 likes this.
  21. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Alien will creep its way to $100 million in the U.S. and will remain for a short time the 10th biggest movie of 2024 worldwide, although it is already more profitable than a number of movies higher up on the list.

    Cailee Spaeny finally has a legitimate box office success after many ambitious attempts, including Pacific Rim: Uprising, Civil War, Priscilla, and apparently a loose sequel to The Craft.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2024
    BigAl6ft6, rocknroll41 and solojones like this.
  22. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Joker projections are getting scaled back to $70-90m. Transformers One is targeting $40-50m, with a possibility of going higher after initially getting the highest RT score of the theatrical franchise with 93% (but now having settled down to 89%, just 1% below Bumblebee's 90%).

    Beetlejuice is expected to drop 60% to around $44m for the second-highest Sept 2nd weekend after It Chapter 1. The film took in $126m domestic between Fri-Tues last weekend, is at $136.4m as of Thurs, and is targeting a close-to-$300m domestic run.

    Speak No Evil is aiming for ten million (just slightly less than the number of times I've had to watch a trailer for that film in theaters!). Killer's Game aiming for $5m.

    EDIT- Looks like Beetlejuice is once again defying expectations and may be looking at as little as a 51% drop and hit around $52m for its second weekend. SNE is edging up to around $12.3m. DP3 taking 3rd with $5.4m. The Daily Wire conservative doc "Am I Racist?" is looking at $4.5-5m. Reagan rounding out the top 5 with $3m. Killer's Game is under expectations and will likely only end up with $2.5-3m.

    EDIT 2- Weekend Estimates:
    -BB: $51.6m (54% drop, 10 day total at $188m domestic, $264.3m ww)
    -SNE: $11.5m
    -DP3: $5.2m (now the 7th highest MCU film)
    -Racist: $4.8m
    -Reagan: $3m
    -Killer's: $2.6m
    -Alien: $2.4m (has crossed the $100m domestic threshold at $101.3m, $317.9m ww, looks like it'll end up $15-20m shy of Prometheus domestically, and probably around $50-60m shy internationally- so it'll stay in a solid #2 position for franchise performance)
    -Ends: $2m
    -Forge: $2m
    -Not Dead: $1.5m
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2024
  23. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Good hold for b2juice. Alien will be knocked out of the 2024 top 10 very soon
     
  24. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I'm not so certain it will. I think it has at least another 2 weeks in the top 10 if its run is not intentionally scaled back. There's not that much coming out in the next 2 weeks. Maybe 5-6 notable releases in total?

    I think Alien will have a better hold than Killers (due to poor performance and reviews), and possibly Reagan (to due its appeal being more regionally-specific). Racist is a wildcard since that's also region-targeted and likely buoyed by right-wing sources (much like how they'll bulk-purchase political books that they don't expect to actually sell or hand out, just to get them on the bestsellers list), which will make it difficult to predict if the main push was to front-load it, or if they'll be pushing it still for week 2.

    But that makes 1, possibly 3 films that could drop below Alien next week and keep it on the chart.

    Transformers One will almost certainly take the top spot (or, if it underperforms, a close 2nd behind B2juice). SNE and DP3 will still be in the top 5. Not sure what to expect out of The Substance and Never Let Go. Substance seems to have gotten good reviews and may eat away at SNE. Will probably end up in the Top 5 (low barrier of entry there, though). Whiplash re-issue is an X-factor. Super/Man is an x-factor too- limited to 2 showings, but at a wider number of theaters than typical.

    AMC is also having a lot of Fan Fave re-issues this next week, from Coco, to Badadook 10th anniversary, to Blue Beetle, to several Batman films (in the order of Phantasm, Forever, and 1989- in that order on the same day), but those are one-off showings so I wouldn't expect them to rank.

    2 weeks from now brings us The Wild Robot, Megalopolis and My Old Ass, with a limited Howl's Moving Castle 20th anniversary. I would expect all 3 of those (not Howl) to rank in the Top 10. I believe that would add up to Alien likely staying in the Top 10, unless Reagan and Racist have stronger holds 2 weeks from now.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2024
  25. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Crow has left theatres at 9 million dollars in North America, never even made it to the opening weekend of 11 million of the original from 30 years ago. I think finally The Crow is dead.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2024
    rocknroll41 likes this.