Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

Gladiator 2 does look terrible, but big. Saturday Night could be good.

 

Venom movies make bank, even a 2021 fall release, I can't see this doing worse (and this got a China release as that country really liked the first one and Alien Romulus did gangbusters there)

 

"Venom: The Last Dance" will do well because people will want to see how it will tie into the upcoming MCU films.

 

Anyway I think Joker Sings may not reach a Captain Marvel to Marvels level flop but it sure ain't gonna do as much as the first Joker movie

 

@Rylo Ken For what it's worth, our Christmas/winter holiday movie will be Sonic 3, as everyone wants to go and see it. Our kids will be 14 (twin boys) and 8 (girl) by then, as I think Sonic 3 will be more for the older family moviegoers over that period. But as I mentioned earlier, our Thanksgiving Eve movie is a mess. The girls and my mother-in-law (and perhaps my mom) will see Moana 2, which leaves us (the boys and I along with perhaps my dad) to see either Red One or Gladiator 2.

And I didn't even notice, but DM 4 topped out at just over $360 million domestically, which is about $10 million short of Rise of Gru. It did a bit better internationally, so it has a slightly higher worldwide box office total. So forget DM 5 and Minions 3 coming out over the next 3-5 years, fully expect DM 5 and Minions 4 to happen as well.

 

Sonic was the 14th biggest movie of 2022 worldwide. At the same budget as the last one, the new one can make 25% less and still easily turn a profit, but it's moved out of its March release window into a more competitive landscape.

I'm really excited about Gladiator 2's alleged $300 million budget. That would almost certainly make it the most expensive movie of 2024. The flopside risk is enormous. Gladiator was successful, but not a massive hit. It has had a long shelf life as a popular home video title, and I'm sure that justifies a sequel. But maybe not a $300 million sequel. And there's nothing about Ridley Scott's track record that justifies a $300 million budget.

 

so it needs something in the range of $625-$750 million worldwide not to be considered a failure, and $750-$900 million to be an outright success. $1 billion or better to be a legitimate blockbuster.

Based on the current list, it has to be the third or fourth most successful movie of the year to really be a success. Gladiator was the second most successful movie of 2000 behind MI II, but it definitely has had a longer and better shelf life as a popular title.

If it has a similar 40/60 U.S/international box office split as Gladiator, it will need more than $300 million in the U.S.

 

Megalopolis going for a 5 to maybe 7 million opening. Should be on VOD in 2 weeks, Francis. Are you going to show up at my house and talk to Adam Driver on screen?

 

I have tremendous respect for a movie doing its own thing in a way that has the potential to earn back less than 10% of its budget, worldwide. It's not easy to get a movie made where everyone already knows practically from before it goes into production that it has no commercial viability whatsoever. The industry has a lot of self-delusion and misguided formulas for success, but an open-eyed, conscious effort to make a movie like Megalopolis is a once-in-a-generation phenomenon. Even the title is a metacritique of itself.

 

Going to see megalopolis tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how my local theater handles the live element.

 

I'm assuming that they're at least smart enough that whatever version going out in theaters and eventually at home will dispose of that nonsense

 

Anyway yes if you want to see someone talk to Adam Driver on screen you get tickets for Megalopolis The Ultimate Experience. As for Cinemas this weekend, for me the winner of my viewing is AppleTV Wolfs, which after all the Apple bombs they pulled from wide release but this is one I would have actually watched. Ah well.

 

Yeah I just got back from my showing and it didn’t have the live element.

Movie was terrible.

Spoiler

I never thought I’d have to see Shia Lebough’s pubic hair, but here we are…

 

So does Adam Driver talk and respond to nobody

 

It was a truncated version of the scene that starts with a voice overdub of an off-screen reporter asking him a question and then he gives an answer and then the movie moves on.

 

Forgot to mention this before, but for some reason, they showed the trailer for the new venom movie TWICE at my screening.

 

What's making less worldwide, The Crow Remake or Megalopolis? You can do it, Francis!

 

which streamer will Megalopolis be on?

 

Whoever gets Lionsgate films. I'm predicting VOD by mid October

 

@BigAl6ft6 Despite them splitting up, I believe most Lionsgate films still wind up initially on Starz. Every streaming service has been passed on Metropolis when it was initially looking for a distributor, and I don't think they will be lining up to pick it up now unless they think it will be a cult classic for some reason. Odder things have happened, though, as films that were figured dead old films suddenly get a second life when they are thrown on Netflix or something.

Meanwhile, Wild Robot made more in previews than Trolls 3 and The Bad Guys. Again, it should be good content for Peacock and if done properly, could spawn a sequel and TV special like The Bad Guys has done. Interesting side note? During the pandemic, my wife had the entire school try to read it as a way to keep the community together. It went over really well as she got a lot of positive feedback from parents/families (they were able to send copies of it in other languages if needed along with sending kids audio copies) so much the superintendent applauded it in a meeting at the end of the year and then declared that no schools should never do again because anything that worked well education wise during the pandemic was thrown out with the baby water for whatever reason.

 

Totally random guess but I feel like it’s got that Peacock stink about it.

 

NBC is gonna spend a ridiculous amount of money sending random dudes to people's houses to talk to Adam Driver.

 

I don't think even Peacock needs to be tortured by Megalopolis.