Senate The Canadian Politics Thread

I just saw the same thing on a different site. First time I heard of it. But nothing new sadly in Canada or America. Native crime gets under reported real hard which leads to many more people getting hurt.

 

If Native crime is under reported how come 32% of inmates in federal prisons are indigenous despite them being 5% of the population?

 

I think you know. And when I meant native crime I meant violent crime. Although in this case that wasn’t so much the case as this all happened over the course of a day. So it doesn’t apply so much here. Just in the sense that a lot of native women in both America and Canada have disappeared or been murdered without much of an investigation. It’s why several serial killers targeted natives. Not because they hated natives or something but because they were east targets.

 

Oh, you're talking about crimes against Natives being under reported, the phrasing threw me

 

Well ****

 

You beat me to it by a milisecond. Can't wait to watch this little weasel lose in a landslide come 2025.

I seriously don't think the bulk majority of Canadians are going to vote for a party with Poilievre at the head. Charest was still winning the polls when it was posed to all Canadians, not just those affiliated with the CPC. They're going to get trounced in the election, and it's going to split the CPC apart (if his victory doesn't do that already). I would put money on the Progressive Conservatives, or something similar, being back on the federal stage by the end of the decade.

 

He's going to win

 

There's no way in hell a CPC with Poilievre as leader wins the next federal election. I genuinely think most Canadians find him to be immensely distasteful, to put it as politely as possible, and the polling we have backs that up. He'd have to convince those same people that he's a preferable choice to Trudeau, who still does well in leadership polls even if Liberal approval overall is low. I don't think he's going to be able to do that.

Most of the wave of anger and discontentment Poilievre is riding on hinges on the present moment regardless, and I also don't think that's going to be sustainable for three consecutive years, especially if this (combined with the supply and confidence agreement with the NDP influencing policy) lights a fire under the Liberals' collective ass to get **** done.

 

Poilievre can win, but only if he pivots to the centre in the next election. His Harper on steroids/pitbull personality and appeal felt by the crypto/WEF conspiracies/convoy crowds are not election-winners and will sink him in a campaign. Things like "Justinflation" also sound very stupid.

Scheer lost in 2019 because of his social conservatism, and O'Toole in 2021 because his wishy-washiness on guns and vaccine mandates, and that was despite the Liberals being rocked by scandals. If Poilievre gets branded as convoy/crypto/etc friendly he'll be unable to win more ridings than his predecessors.

But the election is years away. Most Canadians don't know anything about Poilievre. COVID is unlikely to be a topic of discussion or resonate much with voters in 2025. Poilievre is also intelligent enough to know what to steer away from when he campaigns to be PM. The hungry-for-a-win CPC base will be more motivated than the getting-sick-of-Trudeau Liberals.

All Poilievre has to do is make key gains in Québec and Ontario and he's PM. Get the 905 voters that voted for Doug Ford with tax cuts and promises to "remove the gatekeeping" in their lives. Align the CPC's traditional "small-government" with the CAQ's autonomous agenda to win BQ ridings - and PP has the French proficiency to pull it off, unlike Scheer and OToole.

Today I'd bet on another Liberal minority. Because of how stable polling has remained since 2019. The electoral math favours the LPC. But depending on how Poilievre plays his cards from now on, the odds may move in his favour.

 

I think the issue with that is Poilievre moving to the centre threatens to massively disenfranchise the core base of supporters he's built up. As a qualifying statement, I don't actually think Poilievre is a far-right politician; just an opportunist who saw a present sense of discontentment that he gladly latched onto. You either ride that wave, or you start moving closer to the centre that most Canadian voters occupy, at which point his current die-hards will not feel the same sense of loyalty, and centric voters are going to see him as willing to play both sides of the field.

I would bet on a Liberal majority at this rate, because I suspect most NDP and BQ voters would pivot to the LPC instead of maintaining their current electoral preferences if they think it'll lead to a Poilevre-run CPC government, or jumping ship to the CPC wholesale. The Liberals would have to really, really screw the pooch in the next few years to lose the election, which is of course entirely possible. But I strongly suspect they're not going to underestimate the potential threat, given how poorly that worked out down south.

 

I'm not convinced Poilievre's new supporters have the attention span to notice PP not catering to their conspiracies. I think he'll speak in broad and simplistic terms about economic issues and keep them aboard with his provocative tone. Many people support and vote based on tone alone. The big question is will he be able to make a compelling case to the swing voters he needs?

On NDP and BQ voters, I don't think there's any potential there for the Liberals. Rural NDP seats are more likely to move to the CPC than to the Liberals. And many nationalists that vote CAQ and BQ would prefer Poilievre's respect for provincial autonomy over Trudeau's repeated risky interventions in QC. If it comes down to it, I think Québec voting strategically to deny the Liberals a majority is more likely - it's what they've done with the BQ in 2019 and 2021.

The Liberals are in a tough spot. Trudeau is a spent force at this point but he still remains the LPC's best choice to keep their minority (his would-be replacements either don't have the charisma or French skills to keep what they have).

 

I’ll take JT over him any time. I assume Justin will run again in 2025.

 

Maybe JT can try yellow face next election

 

Did you really think it would cost him the election? If he does run agains PP he better win. We’ll labor anyway

 

Trudeau has already confirmed he's running in the next election. Freeland, who everyone assumed would be his successor, is reported to look at a NATO job. So next time around we're stuck with Trudeau, Poilievre, Singh and _insert irrelevant next Green leader here_.

 

Well we can only hope either he wins again or the NDP can pull off a bloody miracle. If Poilievre wins I would hate to see Canada under that Conservative party.

 

Trudeau set federal holiday for the Queen's funeral which kicked the decision down to the provinces but freakin Dougie Ford wouldn't do it because Ford Nation Works or whatever greedy decision he justified it with.

 

In NS government things like schools and child care are closed, but businesses don't have to, so that sucks for a lot of parents.

I have the day off and no kids so everything's coming up Darth_Duck

 

On one hand, I'm a little bummed I don't have the day off, because I like not working.

On the other, I work for a law firm and this is a really busy time of the year for us, so I'm relieved we don't have to figure out how to reshuffle our schedule around a holiday with less than a week's worth of notice.

 

I bet it's too much to hope that Chuckle's coronation is another day off. Though, logistically that would be easier because of the advance notice

 

I am still slightly afraid that PP will win, but less so because Canada doesn’t have such a dumb system like America. Still it’s not like the conservatives can’t win. I just hope that enough Canadians who would have voted for their local conservative are scared off by him. Or the Liberals pull some good stuff off legislatively with the NDP.

the good news is unless they again decide to hold an election early The liberals and NDP have a few years to work something out

 

Agreed on that point, but I'm still not expecting it. If we're not getting a fully implemented day off to mourn the loss of a Queen who was widely beloved, I doubt we'll get one to honour a King who is thoroughly not. And to pivot away from my prior stance, because I've been thinking about this a lot lately... I do think it's time to talk about abolishing our connection with the monarchy. I think it's served us well, and I have immense respect for the institution, but we're not British North America anymore and we haven't been for a while.

There are already Conservatives, particularly those who lean to the centre and would've previously been affiliated with the Progressive Conservatives, who have indicated they won't vote for him. He's already lost one MP as well. So I really, truly do not believe the vast majority of Canadians, who he polls very poorly with, are inclined to give him government. I'll become worried if he softens his pit bull politics enough that he doesn't come across as unhinged when he speaks. He did so during his victory speech, but I'm not convinced that tenor will continue when he's on a stage debating Trudeau, Singh and Blanchet, and I strongly believe the trait that makes him popular with his base (which is not a representative sample size of the population) is a sizable turn off to the vast majority of voters.

It's going to depend heavily on what our economy looks like three years from now, because he won't have Covid-era grievances to rely on to the same extent. To add to that, depending on how the 2024 election goes in the States, I cannot see Canadians voting for a party that leans even slightly right of centre if the GOP wins led by someone like DeSantis.

I also think if he got into office, he'd ultimately be about the same as Harper in practice. Not great by any means, harmful in many ways, but not the death knell of the nation as some are worrying. The necessary elements just aren't there. He's courted the votes of the Freedumb Convoy and anti-maskers/vaxxers, which is not a sustainable base because their grievances are by nature temporary (whereas Trump's supporters are latching onto deeper fixations that have their roots in history dating back to at least the Civil War), but he's so far done something atypical of right-wing populists and not made divisions down ethnic or religious lines. So I don't think he's a potential Trump, or La Pen. But I do think he's a prick.

 

Ah leave the poor monarchy connection alone, I think it's kinda funny that technically the Governor General outranks the Prime Minster and they're primarily used to open shopping malls. King Chucky on the nickles and dimes will be super annoying though but hopefully we keep the Queen on the 20s. King Chucky 3 can get 5 cents and he'll enjoy it.

 

Well in Ontario we got education workers going on strike despite the education minister pounding his fists keep saying it's illegal to do so. Notwithstanding, you vote for Ford this crap happened.

And the inquiry into the emergency powers acts against the trucker convoy shows the "organizers" are morons who don't care about the chaos they caused. And they got lots of help from the Ottawa police! And one of them said that Trudeau was expressing "hate speech against unvaccinated people. Cripes I despise these beings.

 

The use of the Notwithstanding Clause to impose a contract is horrifying. But it's happened and now that it has some other premier will try the same thing. I'm amazed ol' Stephen McNeil didn't try that here in NS, man had a hateboner for unions.

I think the inquiry is going to boil down to "in an ideal world the Emergencies Act should not have been invoked, but in an ideal world something other than buck-passing should have been done to calm the situation in Ottawa and at the borders and for some reason that didn't happen so whatever, Trudeaus are gonna Trudeau."