ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Meanwhile, the number of sold out/nearly sold out shows on December 14 for is ever increasing. It's crazy folks-just go take a look. We're talking sold out shows in Wyoming and Alaska!!!

Oh and that's for TLJ not JL lol.

I'm thinking the totals are at least VERY close to $40 million JUST ON THURSDAY right NOW? I'm not even exaggerating!

 

Of course it won't eclipse TFA. "Close" is a relative term.

But I think the Thursday previews may be bigger than some of us think. I don't think it will beat $57 million but it may be closer than we've predicted.

The drop offs will be bigger than TFA, but not enough to inflict serious damage.

 

..

Hoping for thr 1.5 billion club which is more exclusive

 

I know it's easy for Star Wars fans to poo poo this, because our saga actually has an epic story that has dozens if not hundreds of books published analyzing the mythology and religious, spiritual, social, political connections, etc., and plot really is the key (it's not the 40 year old effects in ANH, it's the story and sense of wonder), but I've actually grown to respect Marvel as more than just "pure dumb fun." Sure, for the most part, you're not going to be searching for existentialism in a Marvel movie marathon, but there's actually quite a lot there. It's almost like one of those mosaics where if you look up close, there's not as much going on, but if you step back there's this beautiful tapestry. What they have done in interweaving so many disparate characters, films, and stories is nothing short of a masterpiece of planning and execution. It's truly impressive to behold. I'm not sure anything like it has ever been attempted before, let alone executed successfully.

I think it's easy to think on a surface level it's just some cool effects, really fun action, good humor, basically all of the hallmarks of a good night at the movies that you forget a week later. But when you start reading some of the Marvel experts / comic book nerds pointing out connections between the films, and things like where the Infinity Stones appear, etc., you see they've really carefully developed the whole universe and made it all work together in a way that is really quite brilliant. It takes a master planner to do something like that right and to continue hitting home runs each time out. I can see why DC / Warner Bros. wants to duplicate that, but indeed it's something you have to be careful about doing because it's not as easy as Marvel makes it look.

Plus, like most works of art, you can see as little or as much as you want to see in general. Some people turn their brains off when they go into any movie that isn't an art house feature and they lump Star Wars alongside Transformers, which is baffling because if you care to dig into the films there is such a wealth of material there to appreciate. Whether that continues to be the case in Disney's hands, I don't know, I hope so, but certainly it's my primary reason for loving Star Wars. While Marvel doesn't go that far, and it is more about a fun time, I think the whole effect of the MCU is pretty impressive taken together. It won't be easy for DC to duplicate that. They so far haven't done well with it.

I don't know what Kevin Feige makes per year, but he's an example of the type of person who is beyond reproach for salary. I would argue someone like that is worth $100 million a year, but at least $50 million. Without him at the head of the ship, you don't have the results you see with MCU. If NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is being paid $30M/year for the mediocre job he does, and wants a raise to $50M, then yeah, Feige is underpaid. That's what every franchise needs is a Kathleen Kennedy or a Kevin Feige, otherwise you basically get whatever you get by the directors you hire. That's why Wonder Woman is such a great film, and why the others aren't. Not necessarily lack of directing talent, but inability to work with the material in a way that really works for audiences.

Whether it's a George Lucas or a Kathleen Kennedy, I think a franchise should be under pretty strict control from a single creative force. The other people under them should function like the various coaches on a sports team, executing the vision of the primary coach. Otherwise, you leave every outing up to the random chance of that particular director. Not a good way to build for the future.

 

I dont care for marvel but i respect its a juggermaut.

Until it proves otherwise however, its still number 2 behind sw..

People want to know why rogue one did less then cacw ww...the question should be 'why did a known series with most of the avengers lose the domestic crown to a sw spinoff with unknown characters who all die at the end?'

 

That is a rather odd comment to make. There are a ton of posters at BOT, all with vastly different opinions of how much a movie is going to make. To act as if all people there assumed BvS was going to be huge, has little to do with reality. There were some obvious fanboys, just like there were a ton of people who didn't care or took the opposite approach (hence all the "fan wars" between Marvel and DC).

If you were banned for two weeks because of gloating about being right, then you were banned for gloating and showing a lack of ability to discuss things properly, not because someone was angry about you being right while they were wrong. As the latter would imply that all mods thought that BvS would be a huge hit (which isn't true) or that none of them could take it being wrong (also wrong, else there would be a ton of people banned at all times). BOT-mods took on the position that baiting others or "poisoning the well" gets you banned, because it does nothing for the discussion, but creates endless pages of insults.


"They" also aren't delusional about JL. Just because some people post an opinion, doesn't mean that it is the opinion of everyone. I mean, someone here suggested that TLJ will be the first movie to cross 1b domestically. Does that somehow mean everyone or even the majority here thinks so?

Again, it is rather odd to criticise an entire board for individual opinions. I haven't seen anything that would suggest that the majority of users at BOT are sure that JL will open with 150-170m. Looking at the weekend prediction thread, I see one user who says 170m, while everyone else is between 120-140m or so.

"They" are also not freaking about the the movie either. Again, you have individual users who are fanboys and desperately want a huge opening. Those - who are very few - at times "freak out". The rest doesn't.

 

Fwiw im the one who used 'delusional' and given dc fans think jl-dc is on par with star wars when they arent even on par with marvel, i think its the right term.

Or as u would say 'some'

 

I know this isn't the place for discussing whether the MCU has any narrative depth (it doesn't) but also I think relative to box office, the reason Star Wars has so many books published about it is first and foremost trying to cash in on the size of its audience. If as a publisher you caught the first wave of young Star Wars fans, you've been able to market to that audience for 40 years. I'm not sure it says anything about the franchise's "depth".

 

I think the 1.5 billion club is required for this to not be a disappointment.

I think it will make that, and that is regardless of whether or not there is enough mindless, stud-hero action for certain parts of the the international audience to really get into it.

 

Oh! Snap cracklin' pop!

 

Disney's confidence level for TLJ must be off the charts for them to ALREADY have hired RJ to make not one but THREE more movies of his own.

The RT score almost HAS to be excellent for TLJ for Disney to justify that.

Btw, Coco is already getting amazing reviews!

 

Think id be ok with 1.3 billion at the worst. Would still be good enough for no 1 dom and ww

 

TLJ will at least tease $700 million in the US if not surpass it decidedly. $800 million overseas shouldn't be a problem. I just broke my own statement in talking about overseas. Oh well.

 

Cant believe i watched that See It / Skip It Show from Rotten Tomatoes. I miss Roger Ebert. RT score for Justice League would then be at 43% at the moment.

I come to this forum because of the high quality of discussions. BOT has a lot of devoted posters, but its not like Jedi Council.

The worst discussions are those taking place on Facebook and Youtube + some of the fan- sites, stuff like Talkback on Aint It Cool News etc. Of course these are more like comment sections, but the lack of respect for people in general is so appalling.

So, in a week, after Thanksgiving, everything will be focused on TLJ. Its happening.

My top 3 priorities for digging into TLJ:
* Observing Luke Skywalker again, feel the strong presence of his characters deeply developed backstory and heroism. But also complexity of his faith. Watch his humanity as a big contrast to most other generic hero/ villains in todays Hollywood blockbusters.
* Dig deeper into the origins and mythology of "The Force". Hoping that RJ has put efforts to bring a strong fantasy feel into Star Wars again.
* The chemistry of the new characters: Especially Finn and Rey. Poe and Kylo.

oh...and John Williams.

 

Those other places don't have nearly enough middle-aged men in Star Wars t-shirts. *two thumbs, pointing at me*

I like BOT. I can't contribute much (there or here) because I'm not a dedicated BO follower/analyst like a lot of you guys & gals, but that place cracks me up.

 

(Spoiler alert) and luke kickilg some butt!

 

Jl down to 4O percent on rt. Naturally the bot has descended into 'disney pays off all the critics!' logic (and naturally anyome who likes tfa does so only cause critics did)

 

So for argument’s sake and to be semi nice, let’s say JL stays at 40% on RT. That means the average grade for critics on RT in terms of DCEU two movie’s this year was 66% with WW the only reason it is even close to respectability. Meanwhile Marvel had three movies with an average grade of 88%. And the only reason it isn’t over 90% is because of GOTG 2 which received a respectable 82% on RT.

Just shows you despite all the money, “talent” and effort WB as done to try and catch up to Marvel, they are just galaxies behind. And IMHO they cannot reboot with it just starting only back in what 2013? I guess the only good part for them is that people love Gal as WW, like Henry as Superman and I heard good things about the new heroes in Justice League. Affleck too has gotten a good response especially given how his choice was booed on the internet. But he seems resigned to the fact he won’t be doing it much longer and Matt as already stated he has someone else in mind for The Batman if Ben does indeed not come back for it.

 

My question is who in the world is gonna pay 10 cent$ to see the aquaman movie?

 

Yeah that's going to be very interesting. Conan under the sea is what that will be. Worse yet, maybe Scorpion King Under the Sea.

The best thing I can see coming out of Aquaman is the first underwater drama which may give Disney an idea on what to do and not to do when making their inevitable Little Mermaid.

 

Aquaman, IMHO, has the greatest potential of any of the DCEU movies, simply because of who the director is. James Wan is a master craftsman, my favorite contemporary director, who hasn't disappointed me yet. Eight movies without a dud? I'll bet on him. In terms on delivering a good movie that is; BO potential is another thing

 

I might actually see Aquaman, altough I will pretend that it's a Khal Drogo movie.

 

Just saw RT- wow, JL at 36%! And only 26% among the critics that matter!

They clearly haven't learned from previous failures, which is even more sad given they now have a self-made model of success, both critically and at the box office (Wonder Woman).

You have all of those characters, and can't make a decent movie? Ouch.