ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Ha, wow, where to begin.

First off, when I say over at BOT, I'm talking about on the DC thread. I'm sorry that was clear I honestly thought, I didn't think I had to spell out that I wasn't talking about 100% of all posters there. Clearly, that's not what I was indicating, so my apologies for the misunderstanding.... But yes, on their thread, at BOT, they basically all thought BVS was headed for HUGE numbers and some of them thought it would beat TFA before both movies opened.

Moderators on any forum are people, and while we wish they were superior people with the power to make superior judgments, they aren't 90% of the time. I correctly said that it was a STUPID opinion that BVS would make more than TFA. I didn't call anyone stupid. I didn't say, "You're a stupid moron if you thought that," I said it was a stupid idea that it would make more. As even a 7 year old should know -- and I've moderated a large Star Wars forum before when I was 16 for the record -- insulting an OPINION is ok, but not insulting a person. I don't have to be NICE in my opinions, I'm entitled to any mean opinion I want to hold, not just from a U.S. free speech perspective that does NOT apply to forums, but on forums as well unless you want to have no communication at all. It's mean for me to be happy that Trevorrow is not directing IX, that I'm happier for JJ, it's not a nice opinion. But I'm allowed to hold it. I'm allowed to think and say that it's a completely stupid opinion that a DC movie was going to beat the first Star Wars movie in 10 years. I think beyond that any reasonable person would agree with my assessment. I'm sorry one rogue moderator didn't. Oh wait, no, I'm not sorry because I didn't say anything I regret.

I can think someone is the most awesome person but still holds a stupid opinion. I can think of a stupid opinion in fact that every single one of my friends has, and it doesn't make them wrong, it just makes them stupid opinions. The opinion that a DC movie was going to beat a Star Wars movie was unintelligent, so what should I have said? "Ah gee, could have happened to anyone, hey, you never know!" No, we did know. Everyone knew. Unless you had your head stuck right up where the sun don't shine, you knew TFA was going to make way more than BVS and that was never in doubt.

As for Star Wars books, you... don't seem to understand how that works Rylo. In a few cases, sure, but books like the one I contributed to are published by scholarly presses. They make at most 10,000 printings and probably not even that many. They are academic works. I'm not joking when I say i'd be surprised if they sold 2,000 copies, and probably mostly to library sources and universities. Star Wars is the deepest film property you can get. I'd love to hear an argument to the contrary. So you think Citizen Kane is deeper? Because it's about a guy searching for love and full of power but can't recapture his childhood? I mean, it's a great movie, but let's not pretend any of these critically acclaimed films is deeper than a huge 8+ part saga. Star Wars appeals to generation after generation because of the depth of the mythology. That's why there's literally an exhibit called The Magic of Myth, why there are countless connections to classical mythology, history, religion, etc. You could cheapen it by saying that Star Wars is the cliffs notes version of these greater epic mythologies or religions, or that it's a pop culture spirituality, and if you want to go that route, hey, fine but it doesn't change the fact no other film franchise or individual film is any more sophisticated. Plus if you want to bring every piece of canonical text into it, I'll take Star Wars over anything else, any day. Clone Wars alone has tons of wisdom in just the opening quotes to each episode.

Ultimately a lack of taking Star Wars seriously is usually attributed to weird personal biases, an old school belief that books are inherently superior to movies (for some unknown reason), or that maybe 40 years isn't long enough to be around. It has nothing to do with what is or isn't contained in the material. In Star Wars, you can find everything.

 

I agree that Marvel have by far succeeded in their mission. DC have not. But remember, Warner put out some proper super hero movies before the MCU. Batman fans got the trilogy of all super hero trilogies, the Nolan one, which also did manage to reinvent the genre. It really brought the genre into some serious context and also made a ton of money. Tim Burtons two films are classics as well. DC / Warner is just like more hit and miss. For every Nolan trilogy ( which i doubt Marvel can replicate ) there is Batman and Robin, Catwoman, BvS, SS, even worse, Supergirl and Superman IV; Quest for Peace.
In Justice League, we hear snips of Danny Elfmann`s old Batman theme, so good, but then most of his new score is just background food and forgettable. I also think they should have put Superman in front of the marketing, everybody knows he is in the movie. Still think both Cavill and Affleck is off, especially Affleck with Matt Reeves coming in. Zack Snyder is probably not going to direct a DC movie like this again either.

Deadline reports $ 12- 13 mill in previews for JL. Thor 3 did $ 14.5 mill. Thats not good enough for a JL film. It can go anywhere from that. Its close to Thor preview numbers, but Thor had great reviews and great w.o.m ( hey even i had a jolly good Marvel time at the cinema too), so its tough to now see it beating Thors ow. Worst case, i see $ 105 - 110 - at best $ 125 - 130 mill. If its around $ 110 mill or under, its objective relevant to call it a big disappointment, not a huge flop though.

 

Jeesh if thor and jl cant hit 300 dom then 'it' will finish no worse then 7th this year (depending on what coco does)

Who saw that cominng?

As an aside these tv spots im seeing for tlj are really great

 

$12-$13 million previews??? DCU is certainly becoming a sinking ship even with the power of the Batman.

So.....now that Justice League is out, there's STILL no trailer for Infinity Wars?

Amazing, absolutely amazing!!!!

 

That's solid enough, though?

 

Solid enough for $100 million or a little more, yes.

 

12-13 is less then both thor 14.5 and it 13.5.....so looking at a 120 at best

 

Oh. But that's still better than something like King Arthur or Valerian.

 

Oh and Mummy and Pan too....

 

Oh sure. It will open better than Mother! as well...

 

It will do better than Monster Trucks

 

In all honesty, there was never anything that felt intriguing, mysterious, or compelling in every teaser and trailer for JL. It seemed like the same exact thing as BvS with a couple of new characters. Wonder Woman at least offered the idea of an interesting backstory and mythology and was a great deal more character-based. JL was the same ol' same ol'.

Look at TLJ. It seems to open up more mystery and intrigue than TFA. It takes it to the next level and that's just judging by the teasers and trailers. It offers something new as a sequel. It more than hints at deeper character development and lore. Can't say the same for JL judging by trailers. And, before people see it, that's exactly what they'd be judging by. This is why DC is having problems in my opinion.

 

How much lower can we get? It will do better than.....?

oh jedijax. Spot on with that analyse.
Also like Rylo Ken said earlier on, the trailers were beyond terrible.

Trailers for Star Wars: Don`t give away the story. For DC: Lets give away what we have. As...we have no story.

 

Thanks Othini

I am a product mostly of the 80's but was little during the 70's. I fondly remember the JL cartoons (yes, with the Wonder Twins too lol). I had action figures for Batman, Superman, Robin, Joker (and Marvel ones too like Iron Man and Hulk). I think DC/WB have tried to make this set of movies TOO different from Avengers. The effects seem to be way overdone and the tone is too dark but not in the "Dark Knight" kind of purposeful dark. Rather, it was a more of a forced dark that is unnecessary, especially with villains nobody cares about. If they actually made it fun like the old JL stories, there could have been a chance. But with SO many Superman and Batman movies that have come before, there was little place to go. The Flash already has a successful TV show (is it on anymore?). I don't remember Cyborg. And, to me, this new Aquaman is just....weird. It's like Conan or something. Can anyone relate to a steroid-pumped Aquaman?

And, really, when it all comes down to it, Marvel just beat DC to the punch. DC was pumping out amazing Batman movies (Nolan) while Marvel was setting up its platform for a very well-executed universe. From what I've seen, Affleck is an adequate Batman but coming off of the heels of a HIGHLY regarded Bale Batman. So many pieces not falling into place because DC with the most famous superheroes of all time, playing second fiddle to Marvel (with the exception of Wonder Woman who will continue the reigns beyond JL's success for a while).

But I am hoping after this weekend the main thrust of this thread will be on TLJ.

 

Star Wars is the only franchise that gets my money unconditionally. I'll still watch a movie like Dr. Strange on Netflix out of morbid curiosity, and I have a fourteen year old who will sometimes drag me to a movie like Thor 3. But like I've said before, my kids mostly act like a post-movie generation.

 

'How much lower can we get'?.

Blade rumner!

 

No!! Blader Runner deserved to be made, sometimes its just good they spend the money and make something bigger than the serviceable standard cineplex crowdpleaser....

 

Blade Runner 2049 is not the sci fi classic I was never expecting to begin with, but its box office failure gave it a fine poetic balance with the original.

 

Blade Runner doesn't belong in the same sentence with that DC movie, regardless of Box Office...

 

Supposedly it is going to be attach to TLJ but obviously will be dropped online sometime before then:

http://comicbook.com/marvel/2017/11/16/avengers-infinity-war-trailer-release-date-revealed/

It is suprising that Disney is waiting this long to come out with especially since the comic con trailer (which seems to be what the first trailer will be) as had bootlegged copies up for months now. You figure they would just bite the bullet and realized it by now.
I read somewhere that while they absolutely love the trailer (and talk is among the Marvel/Disney people that the movie is nothing but basically speculator) they weren’t 100% happy with how Thanos looked in it (if you watch the bootleg trailer, he does kind of look like nothing but purple muscles) so perhaps they want to make sure he looks right before they officially dropped the trailer.

raefinnpoe

Thor 3 not hitting $300 million is not that shocking. Yes it does have Hulk in it but end of the day, it’s a Thor movie who is the least popular of the main Avenger players. I thought anywhere between $250-275 million would be a really good box office number for it and it’s already going to be over $250 million domestically after this weekend with $300 million still a decent possibility again depending how it holds up over Turkey Day Weekend. But if Justice League doesn’t break $300 million though? That is truly shocking in every word especially given how well WW played this summer. Perhaps there is just fatigue for that whole franchise right now especially since WW was this past summer and Dawn of Justice was last year. Not giving anytime to marinate. Doesn’t help the critic ratings are pretty brutal again.

 

The delay for the han solo trailer is weird unless they are moving the release date?

Thor opened to almost exactly 'its' ow and wont even have its legs. Thats pretty weird to me @lukeo2.

And blade runner belongs in ow failures because of its ridiculous production budget.. I guess thpugh its flopping was forseeable due to its original flopping though..

 

IW trailer needs to drop MUCH sooner than the TLJ release. That's a measly 5 months prior. Thanksgiving would be perfect....set up excitement for Black Friday sales on Avengers legos or something.

raefinnpoe Funny that in this context, "It's" is the only time that an apostrophe should be used in the possessive for "It".

 

Mendelson writes that with 13 million in previews, JL can have as low as a 70-80m domestic weekend if it plays like the other DCEU films. Oh boy.

Edit: And it has just 55m worldwide.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ters-weekend-with-55m-worldwide/#68f33a0765ba

Buckle up and brace for impact.

 

Well hey, if it plays out like WW, then it will have a 4x multiplier and make $280-$320 million.

But then again...

 

With that rotten rating and, once again, polarizing audience reaction JL ain’t reaching a 4x multi even with 50% inflation xD.
The movie’s a mess and the BO numbers are likely gonna be as well...