Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

Well, the problem is - The general public doesn't want to see any of these films. The Rey film has the best chance, money wise - But probably the worse chance creatively.

As we saw with Mando S1 and S2, the public seem to like something in the Space Western/Space Opera cross-over space. So a dash of edge from the Mando-with-no-name styling, with a bit of mysterious background (Mando and Jedi), some fun characters that appeal to the whole family (Grogu) and some soaring Swashbuckling awe-inspiring Space-Monk-Ninja with a returning proper full power Luke Skywalker.

Any pre-prequel if true to the universe will lack the Western edge, and if not, will damage the mythos by taking the Jedi away from their buddhist samurai origins. Filonis work is too deep-cut and based around animated continuity to even make sense to civilians (I've been a SW fan for over forty years and on this forum since last century - Yet I don't get it!) and the Rey film to achieve that tone, would either need to retcon some of the sequels, (Much like the sequels retconned and reversed ROTJ) or take a step back and put Rey kind of where she was at the start of TFA. Which I am not sure would have legs in the box office - Let alone a sequel.

Game of Thrones, Godfather, Dune. Star Wars - Have up to this point all been Family stories. With Rey that story has ended. Unless they somehow restart it, then I feel a lot feel the Star Wars saga is "done".

So in conclusion - A has the best chance IF they put some serious world-building scaffolding work into it. Or just bring back Luke somehow.

 

BTW a lot of Igers nudges and winks are all there to give share price a little bit of help. If people think there is a possibility of a mega merger with Apple, it inflates the price.

There is NO WAY Apple is buying Disney. Apple would have done ten years ago when Disney was smaller and more focussed and Jobs (Who historically had a fair chunk of Disney) was around.

 

It's not going to happen any time soon, but there is definitely a possibility of it happening in the future.

 

I'm not sure that any star wars movie coming out later or even later is a guarantee of super box office money success. The box office as it is now is not how it was before and even then the movies that have made money have been different than what we got between 2010 thru 2019. Nothing is guaranteed now. So movies look good and don't do well and those that nobody expects defy the odds.....ie for example, Super Mario, Barbie and even Oppenheimer. The last one is a three hour rated R movie and its done excellently at the box office. The only exception is Avatar 2 which on a first run basis made a bunch of cash and soon there will be extra cuts, special editions, and ultra editions, not to mention more theatrical re-releases for both Avatar and Avatar 2 so that one right there will continue to generate money. Marvel has been lackluster and the only movie to cross the billion dollar marker was the Spiderman movie but that was Sony's. That particular movie was special because it was the first one in the pandemic era to really make that money other than it also didn't have any competition from anyone else really. DC yeah, no comment. Blue Beetle hasn't even crossed $100 million in the box office. Makes you wonder if Aquaman 2 will be more of the same.

So with star wars, I just don't know. The titles don't really inspire real lets go to the box office for the general public as opposed to more of the fanbase. Also, there is the other factor. We know what they want to do with star wars with the movies they announced but they first have to get made and released and star wars is known for great reveals and then nothing and then the cancellations. What we can't do is make the mistake of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny where a lot of money was spent and the returns are not there.

 

Well, the problem is - The general public doesn't want to see any of these films. The Rey film has the best chance, money wise - But probably the worse chance creatively.

People have been asking and wanting a dawn of the jedi ( KOTOR ) for ages.......

 

Dawn of the Jedi and KOTOR are two different things.

 

How so? It’s the most open in terms of canvas. The creatives can do practically anything they want.

 

In terms of being 1,000's of years before ANH was what I was getting at

 

So, I will simply assume they are all three good, meaning entertaining and achieving what they try to do.

A. Rey and the ST are not exactly beloved and I see the ST not having the gravity the OT and even ST had. So if this isn‘t doing something incredibly interesting or get some star aboard to help the hype, I see that one as a gamble. Could work out, but the brand is diluted. Don‘t see the billion mark, except some new element comes into play (somehow … whoever … returned!)

B. That movie starts with a blank slate. Could be anything. I guess people expect a large, epic story fitting the topic and LucasFilm wasn‘t good at that, Mangold is. Honestly, I think the success of the film depends on how much freedom to do his vision the Director gets. As he recently made a hundred million of Disneys money vanish at the Box Office, I kind off see this one as a candidate for not happening. If it does, marketing is everything. This must be a huge event movie.

C. Filoni won‘t do a big event movie, he will do a TV show super conclusion. Will the film even make sense for those unfamiliar with the shows? If not you limit your viewers to Disney Plus du subscribers? US market that might work, but Europe? Asia? Puh. I think this one is a risk. A really good cinema movie would potentially ignore the TV shows or diminish them at least. A really good Filoni movie would embrace them and alienate all casual movie goers. Seriously? This one is a risk! I kind of appreciate they take it, but puh … if I was the guy from financials signing of on the budget, I‘d ask them not to spend too much.

So I say B.
Because it has a chance to attract all fans and casual viewers.

 

I think the Rey movie may be the most successful at the box office because she and the ST are familiar (regardless of how people feel about those movies). The Jedi Origin story, though, feels fresh with possibility and newness. I'm sure many of you have imagined the deep past of the Star Wars galaxy and hoped for a canon unfolding of that time.

 

Agreed especially if the Rey movie is the first released which it looks like being - so it will be the first Star Wars movie in 6 years so should do quite well at the box office.....

 

Not exactly a box office related statement directly, but if they could tie all 3 together somehow (shouldn't be difficult) then I think it would only serve to benefit all 3.

 

Kathleen Kennedy said they would all be connected.

 

All the movies will make 10 billion dollars and Nintendo will buy Disney. Then they will make this:



That is my accurate prediction.
I have spoken.

 

Luigi is Mario’s brother. How does Wario fit into it all?

Baby Yoda + Thrawn the movie could be extremely popular. We’ll see how that series stands when the dim is ready.

 

Grogu's popularity cannot be overstated. Any movie which features him in its marketing material will receive a huge boost.

 

There really is no equivalent character in Star Wars to Grogu with such a groundswell of popularity that largely happened organically with merchandise arriving later to fill demand.

Maybe Ashoka who natural built a fan base. Her jump from animation to live action TV has apparently been seen with some of the best tv ratings for Star Wars.

 

Yeah. When you think about it, using Grogu to re-introduce Ahsoka in Mando was a masterstroke. It's such a pivotal moment for Grogu (establishing so much of his backstory, as well as his freakin' name) that even newcomers know and care about Ahsoka now, as well as legacy fans.

If both Grogu and Ahsoka are in Mr. Filoni's movie, there'll be no contest. Maybe the Rey movie could match it, but only if it's a true ST continuation.

 

I do think Grogu is as big of a pull as he was. I think the gloss has faded abit with his cuteness. It’s not like Mando series 3 still had high viewing figures as the 2 previous. So why assume adding Grogu will make something a huge hit?

 

They’re not saying it’ll guarantee a huge hit. They’re saying Grogu would give such a film a big boost - not least as he’s popular, and hasn’t been in a film before. This is an unquestionably reasonable assertion, but I know you have issues with such assertions.

 

What would be better than Grogu in a movie? Grogu teaching even younger Grogus the ways of the Force (and how to eat frogs, blue cookies, and alien eggs).

 

I think the best chance of a successful movie is Filhoni's because that is the one that is most likely to be good. The others will be in untested waters, but we know Filhoni makes SW content beautifully from his shows. I don't believe I would go that far with anyone else. I am not buying that Rey is going to be the best bet because people recognize her, I think Grogu is more recognizable by this point. Anyway, we don't know if that will be any good, and we can have a reasonable amount of certainty that Filhoni's will be good. Therefore, I think the percentages at this point favor him. And he will have a lot more money for a movie.

I don't get negativity toward Ahsoks and Mando by SW fans- I think he provides everything a SW fan would want; he weaves old characters and new stories together nearly perfectly. His intimate knowledge and ability to utilize all of the SW material is one thing that sets him apart.

 

Is there much negativity toward Ahsoka and Mando by fans? I really haven't seen or heard any.

 

All Star Wars that isn’t the OT gets some negative reaction. Everyone has different ideas on what they want Star Wars to be.

I do think Ahsoka is the most out there live action Star Wars we have had though. Space whales, space witches, zombie storm troopers is a lot more than just the western idea of the Mandalorian.