Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

Dune: Part 2 Proves That Movie Budgets Have Gotten Out of Control - IGN- Why do so many of these movies cost so much more but look so much worse than Dune?

Good article on movie budgets.

 

Dune part 2 proves you can throw big money at it and it works in terms of Box office.....

 

It looks like you were wise to wait- we might go full circle and be back to guessing box office on Rogue Squadron again.

Dune 2 continues to pace just barely behind Oppenheimer at the box office. It may pick up though, because it was just released in China, and is doing well. 367 million worldwide. Nothing to sneeze at considering it is so long. IMAX theaters are sold out way ahead of time in a lot of locations for it.

‘Dune 2’ Global Box Office Nears Massive Milestone (collider.com)

 

Don't need to read a full article to answer that question, when the answer is simple: because those other movies don't have good directors.

 

True but there are some pertinent examples in the article in terms of what is happening in mainstream films right now.

 

True. But having read the article, 90% of the answer is still: Denis Villeneuve is a visionary director, and the ones who make the bad blockbusters are not.

 

Its not great box office. it does show that you can make a good movie, but people won't necessarily care to see it.

With a budget of $190 mil, its not broke even yet I don't think. By the end of its run it should make a profit of a few mil.

 

Considering how niche it is, it is VERY good box office results.

 

It is close to great box office, and if it has some legs, could be great. Not a few million. It is on par with Oppenheimer right now, which made 1 billion. The projections are at least 700 million, which would turn a profit of about 200-250 million. It is doing better than some more expensive movies and could reach greater heights given it just opened in China and is doing well.

Not to mention it is super long and not really a family movie.

 

True i think i assumed it had been in theaters for a while already. how long has it been in theaters?

 

It opened March 1st.

 

And the end credits have just started rolling.

 

Plus the 190 million budget doesn’t factor in marketing. So actual budget is probably closer to 230 million. Which means the movie needs a ballpark of 460 million to break even

 

So wouldn't the break-even point be 230 M in that scenario? You don't have to double your budgeted costs to break even, you just have to match them and become net zero. The studios probably have a profit margin goal like that, though.

 

I heard to break even you usually need to double your budget. so that's the logic I usually go by.

 

Hmm... that math doesn't really math.

 

I think the rule of thumb is double the production budget to account for marketing. Not double the budget including everything.

 

But we won't always know the marketing budget so you do have to round out a guess in some form or another.

 

If we assume Mando is shooting on a similar budget to the show. 35 minutes per episode is around 10 million dollars. That assumes a shooting budget of 49 million dollars. 98 million including marketing. If they stick to that it can easily without a doubt break even and even double or triple it. I am just not positive that they will shoot with that low of a budget. I think around 130 million including marketing gives them a bit more room to do a bit more than stick 3.5 episodes together.

oh I forgot you can factor in the tax credit as well what was that for 20 million?

 

Think Pedro Pascal alone would command a much higher salary now. My guess is between $ 12 - 15 mill. Jon Favreau probably around $ 10 mill or more. They already has these tax credits from California and filming mostly on The Volume in L.A will make it less expensive. I also read that they will shoot in UK ( Pinewood) and some location as well, but its only rumours for now. Under $ 100 mill total with marketing is not realistic i think for a movie of this size, but pretty sure it will be way, way under any of the sequel trilogy films.

 

If they can get below 200 million total including marketing then it may have a chance of making a profit. Again I see no way this makes over 500 million dollars. So Lucasfilm needs all the help they can get. Tax credits and all

 

I think whatever budget these movies get, they will want the movie to look really expensive. the visuals, music, and effects all need up their game. And that does mean adding a lot more money. Which is the problem with having made these TV shows, is that the TV Shows for the most part look pretty filmic. And so you need to be able to give the audience something they can't watch at home.

 

I mean if you break down a normal movie budget of 200 million down into the same equation they get well over 3x the budget per minute of footage. But I just don’t think you can do that with Mando while also making money