Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

I agree with ewoksimon--one underestimates James Cameron at their peril. However, that said, and putting aside Avatar's shameless and derivative repackaging of Fern Gully and Pocahontas, what would a sequel be about? Defending against more, better-armed Sky People? *yawn* Unless Cameron has some new technological wonder up his sleeve (3-D without glasses maybe?), I'm very skeptical about this putting bums in seats. At least outside of Asia.

 

It just sounds like he's exploring the rest of Pandora, so basically applying his interest in documentary-making to a completely fictional planet he made up and dressing it in what will likely be the thinnest of plots to justify calling it a story.

And as an aside, I think Cameron was absolutely robbed of a Best Director win for Avatar, not because it was necessarily a good or great movie (I've only been able to sit through it once), but because what he pulled off from a technical standpoint was nothing short of astonishing in the world of 2009. I just have no great interest in seeing him do it another four times, when the trick is much less impressive. Maybe he'll astonish us with remarkable worldbuilding and a narrative worth stretch over that many films, but nothing in the first indicated that either of those things will be the case, because unlike the worlds of Star Wars, or Star Trek, or Middle-Earth, there's not much to suggest that Pandora is that... interesting.

I'm also positive that Avatar 2, at least, will do absolutely amazing numbers internationally due to its performance in the Asian markets, particularly China. I have no doubt that it will do significantly more than Rogue Squadron, regardless of the quality of either film.

 

The bottom line with Avatar is that Cameron will need a new technological stunt to make it huge. It won't be big based on pent up demand.

Lucas's technological jump for the PT was bigger (in terms of the actual innovation), and was before Avatar, so Lucas would deserve any accolades that Cameron got.

They say the problem with SW box office has nothing to do with making cents and everything to the renminbi. Bring back Donnie Yen.

The box office thread might then need a retooling to how many subscriptions Disney+ will get after movies are released on it.

I am thinking theaters will be back unless a massive and deadly variant sweeps through and devastates us despite the vaccine, but I doubt that will happen. The question is more how much the lost theaters will affect the box office, but at this point I am thinking they may recovered enough to support big box office by 2023. Not entirely recovered, but recovered enough.

 

Wait a minute.....Avatar is no longer the enemy anymore as they are owned by Disney. So Avatar 2 will probably be a joint Fox/Disney thing cause they own this stuff now. Avatar is back on top thanks to the re-release in China.

I wonder now with the streaming service how is that going to change the cinema market. Now the movies can make super money with both dual release on premium plus and the movie theaters.

 

This may be one of the pandemic changes that may stay if successful. HBO is giving a one month window for subscribers while the movie is in theaters.

That also proves that it isn't the either/or situation that has been projected in all of the movie vs streaming debates around here. There could be all kinds of combinations- how many subscribers would Disney + get if they allowed subscribers to watch a new SW, Marvel or Avatar movie on streaming for, say a week, or even for the opening weekend. It could turn out to be worthwhile to do it that way for the company.

Before anyone says it won't be done for movies that are so expensive, it already is being done for WW84 and Dune, so that argument died hard.

 

The only question is whether or not it would make them more bottom line- otherwise we could make the case they don't need anything- they already make enough money; but clearly they don't look at it that way, nor does any business. If they determine it would make them more money overall, they will do it. Streaming is a huge competition with massive stakes, that has been made clear.

 

Double post...

 

It looks like the box office is subverting expectation and making a comeback. And that's with a movie available for free on streaming (which is subverting a whole different set of predictions and expectations).

Weekend Box Office Results: Godzilla vs. Kong‘s $48.5 Million Five-Day Haul Is a Rock-‘Em Sock-‘Em Sign Of Hope << Rotten Tomatoes – Movie and TV News

Sticking to my original prediction from the OP of a big box office comeback for SW with Rogue Squadron.

A long break has 100% of the time meant historic box office for SW, and this could be even more meaningful if there is a post-Covid smash. "Well the circumstances are different this time, that won't happen, that's because of blah blah blah, and this time blah blah blah." Shut up and make a prediction, and we will see who turns out to be right.

 

I love that his film (TLJ) is the only Disney SW film that didn't experience significant production difficulties.

 

It looks like it will be a good one to see on the big screen; I might catch it both places. Those fights look like they were meant for the theater.

 

Godzilla v Kong has proved the box office is still alive and kicking and by the time the likes of Avatar 2 and RS come out the pandemic will be way more under control so if Avatar 2 and RS are good like Godzilla v Kong than I could see:

Avatar 2 $1.5 to $1.8 billion with China stumping up $500 million alone

Rogue Squadron $900 million

ps.....I highly recommend you get to a theatre to see Godzilla v Kong as watching it at home on HBO max will not do it justice as it's one of those must see films on the big screen.

 

Man I love the Godzilla vs Kong movie. I've watched it twice on HBO Max and will be watching it in the theaters. This movie is just a big wow. I didn't think it would be that good but guess what I was surprised that i liked it a lot. And the movie novelization by Greg Keyes was just as good if not better. The box office also hasn't died which is a good thing. I can't wait to start seeing movies in the plex and if they still decide to do the double release, heck I'll watch it in streaming and still the plex. Of course those are for movies that are worth watching like most Marvel movies and Star Wars and the occasional other movie that's got good hype. (like Ready Player 1, Godzilla vs. Kong, and DC movies of course).

 

Don't forget Dune! I will be watching that one in both places, but will bite the bullet until I get to a theater, as tempting as it may be to watch it at home as soon as it is on. First time has to be in the theater.

 

I forgot about Dune heck yeah thats another one

 

I enjoyed Kong vs God also. I'll have to watch the other Monsterverse movies; I haven't seen all of those. Would love to see them include my childhood monster fav Ultraman in a big time production like that..

 

Agree with you 100 %

 

I personally think Titanic and Avatar are really good films i thoroughly enjoyed both films and thought both were deserving of the money they made! I think the original Terminator was cheesy but T2 was an Instant Classic and Terminator Dark Fate was a really good additition to the Franchise and homage to T2 and Aliens I never saw it but hear good things about it!

As for Patty Jenkins and Rogue Squadron I just bought Wonder Woman 1984 on Blu-Ray watched It twice so far It gets better with age and subsequent views. I still dont get the flack this film gets. It was culturally and Politically relavent to what was going on in January and the previous 4 years. It also had a feel good happy ending which Is really what most Americans needed after 2020 COVID and the past 4 years. I personally cant wait for this film! one thing i wonder just an assumption most Americans who were stressed out from COVID and the Last 4 years liked Wonder Woman Im guessing most non Americans did not care for the new Wonder Woman? Two more thing. both Wonder Woman movies were different but IMHO I thought both were good! And Imagine If we had the Olympics in 2020 Summer in Japan how much bigger is that Arena opening and the movie was supposed to come out on my Birthday June 5th!