ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

I would hope so. Spend the money on some new talent, take some new risks. As you say. Arnold is not the draw anymore, how many flops for him in a row now? He belongs to the 80/90s. Still, i salute him for being able to stay in the business, and the consept of "Genisys" is not so much his fault. Some producer should have put the alarm bells on way earlier.

 

God, it's really weak. I regularly sit through CG kids films with the brood. Most are decent. This was a real slog.

 

My new prediction for this is 2 billion w.w.

 

The RT score for Minions is a little misleading: Only 5 top critics have reviewed the thing, and they're 3/2, with an average rating of 6.5/10. The regular ol' scrubs have seen it more, but it's still less than 50 reviews overall, 32/11, and still with that 6.5/10 average.

When more writers get their eyes on it, chances are it'll dip down into that 60% range.

But then again, rotten tomatoes ratings, like any other critical analysis, don't really factor in too much to the opening weekend box office.

 

Minions is 100% critic proof.

Ice Age: Continental Drift was blessed with a 37% RT score. Nearly $900 million worldwide, more than $700 million of that outside the U.S.

 

What was wrong with it? (without giving spoilers away)

To me it just looks like slapstick after slapstick.

 

Jurassic World took the 3-day by 800k. Terminator opened 3rd.

Jurassic World *could* threaten 700 mil domestic, but I don't think it's gonna get there, although it's still earning at a higher rate than Avengers did in the same timeframe. Past this weekend, Avengers made another 110 mil. If Jurassic World slows down and manages to equal that feat, it'll end up somewhere around 660-670 mil domestic.

The #3 slot worldwide is pretty much a given, as is the #2 slot domestic.

Inside Out is guaranteed to be the first movie in history to clear $300 mil domestic without ever scoring a #1 weekend at any point.

 

Looking less likely TFA will beat Jurassic World domestic but I hope I'm wrong.....

 

Correction about the LotR + Hobbit number. I guess you found that on BoxOfficeMojo but that figure includes the Bakshi animated film from the 70's. It makes little sense to include that, esp since you said "Modern age".
Removing that gives an average for the LotR + Hobbit films of 307 M. Just the LotR films has an average of 345 M.

As for Spiderman, if you take just the Raimi films, they have an average of 370 M. Why include the other two films when they are made by different people and not in continuity with the first three?
You seem to count Nolan's Batman films separate from the Burton/Schumacher films so the same should apply to Spiderman.

If we are talking just brand here then should we include the animated Clone Wars films with the PT?
If we do then the PT average drops to about 290 M.

Bye for now.
Blackboard Monitor

 

Yes, I agree.

Hence me saying I can find quickly.

So as to indicate I spent minutes and not hours breaking everything down to the nth degree.

Hmmm... so old star that is not box office draw he once was decades ago. Reviving old series trying to recreate success from said past and producers not taking risks?

Is that Genisys, Crystal Skull or TFA?

Now I just point that out for comparison and of course Indy IV was a huge hit in 2008 which Genisys and tons of other movies would love to have. For TFA of course it'd be kind of disappointing to "only" make 787M in 2015.

 

No other movie of 2015 is going to have the domestic total of JW, and no other movie of 2015 is going to have the international total of Furious 7. Worldwide total is maybe up for grabs.

 

Looks like Inside Out may have pulled it off and finally won this weekend by about 300K. Final numbers should be out soon.

 

Either way it looks like Terminator WON'T be back.

EVER AGAIN!?!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...reasons-terminator-genisys-bombed-in-america/

It probably should have really appealed to the core audience and gone R-rated.

The Rock as a Terminator? That could have been a start at least.

 

Jurassic World now only $125 million back from the global total of Furious 7.

 

With at least another $100 million coming from US markets, should beat that easily.

 

That's $3.8 billion worldwide for Universal from four 2015 movies, not including Minions.

 

http://captiongenerator.com/49429/Jabs

a gift from the community forum, where they enjoy my box office predictions even less than you do here.

 

On Drudge this am:



Links this AP report:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-09-09-15-15

Funny. Don't recall that happening for Jurassic World.

 

The Minions RT score seems to be circling the drain. On the other hand, the marketing is relentless. The Gallows is at 16%, but will probably enjoy a decent opening night.

 

It's going to be funny seeing when people are so surprised when this tops "Jurassic World" and challenges "Avatar".

 

Do these people realize that there really won't be anything much about SW despite its alleged "presence"?

 

My cousin is at the upper age range of Star Wars core demographic, and he just doesn't connect with Rebels or anything TFA related. To paraphrase, "it doesn't even look like Star Wars" is what he said about the recent trailer, so in his case, the prequel era really did define Star Wars. I'm not sure why Disney decided to aggressively make the franchise a nostalgic brand so quickly, because I think if children connected with original trilogy stuff, then pre-Disney Lucasfilm would have been churning out the licenses. Instead the prequel stuff connected better. How that affects box office I don't know, but just my two cents.

I see the movie doing $1.3B if well reviewed, and $900M if critically panned. Nobody really asked for another Star Wars movie, so there's no real demand I don't think. It's success will be down to marketing and actually being good I think.

 

That is because nobody saw JW happening. There was a brief blurb on both Drudge Report and Huffington Post a few days before it open that it was tracking stronger then it was anticipated and that could make $140 million Opening Weekend. Then on Monday both updated that it broke every single Opening Weekend here and abroad LOL!

If you read the reviews, even the poor ones say basically, "if you like the Minions, you will like the movie". I think it will be a crowd pleaser overall and will do fine at the BO which is what ultimately matters. Hell I already have my tickets for Tuesday afternoon for the wife and kids. The tough part will be to keep the kids under wraps until then LOL!

I honestly think Ant-Man's tepid reviews so far could do more damage since the general public seems to be skeptical of the character. Then again critics and movie goers have been at odds for years upon years now. Just look at the Academy Awards and the Box office totals in a given year. It used to be where a lot of movies that were smashed hits in the theaters were nominated for an Oscar. Now there might be one movie listed that broke the Top Ten for that given year. Last year, only American Sniper did anything at the BO out of the nominated movies. And I honestly think that was a token nomination since the Academy knew the movie was an absolute phenomenon and they were hoping to cash in on some easy ratings (which sort of worked).

 

JW is mighty but I think SW will rival it*. Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull was 2nd worldwide, and TFA having the big 3 in their marquee roles will make it an even bigger movie event. The key will be getting female fans since that's what separates Jurassic World from Avengers Age of Ultron, and with Leia and diverse characters I think that will be achieved. The last Star Wars came out before the FIRST iphone was even released, in other words I think the world is smaller and hungrier than ever to see the Falcon and friends back on screen.

*Unless China collapses but even during bad economic times movies sell out like Avatar

True no one expected JW's phenomenal success, however I think its official trailers had more youtube views than TFA. Although Star Wars did win out in 'total hits' across all major websites.