ST Episode VII Box Office Discussion

HAHAHAHAHAHA

I never thought of it that way, but you are correct. I had a discussion with a friend of mine back in early 2015 about Star Wars 7 vs Avengers 2. He thought that Avengers 2 would beat Star Wars 7, I told him: NO CHANCE!

Now, we have Star Wars beating Avengers 2 by more than a factor of 2! Sooooooo awesome!

But I am not surprised at all with the success of TFA, it's something I totally expected. What surprised with the box-office in 2015, was Jurassic World (how on earth was that franchise revived to such scaling heights?) and Furious 7 (I am still amazed by how massive that stupid franchise has become)

 

Yeah I always felt in my heart, more of an emotional reaction but later backed up by pre-release facts, that there is simply no world that I live in where Jurassic Park is bigger than Star Wars. Maybe on Earth 2, that's a thing. Here, Jurassic World's success should have been rightly celebrated for what I and many others thought it meant - and we were often ridiculed for it. I thought it was very clear that if JW can make $652M, Avatar was toast. There was no chance TFA wasn't going to crush JW frankly.

That being said JW was one of the biggest surprises of the last many years. It came out of nowhere and near as I could tell nobody was THAT excited for it 6 months earlier. I think most of us wanted to see it, most of us hoped it would be fun and entertaining, but it didn't seem like some huge event. Avengers 2 seemed like a huge event and actually didn't even do as well as JW opening weekend let alone overall.

I wouldn't call Avengers 2's box office a horrible disappointment but I would call is surprisingly inept compared to many expectations. With an opening that strong, one would think it could have hit $500 million pretty easily if not $550M. It had no legs whatsoever and fell like a rock.

It's one reason why I'm not overly concerned with whatever is the next thing to beat TFA opening weekend. I think it's entirely possible that one day we see a $300M OW for a film that barely clears $600M. I believe movies will continue to be even more front-loaded because financially it makes a lot of sense for studios. People often think that every studio sits there and has $5 billion in the bank and then just spends $200M to make the movie. That's not usually what happens. You finance a lot of the film just like an office building or apartment complex so that means that for every 3 months extra it takes to pay back your investors or the bank, you're making interest payments. If you can grab almost all of your money in theaters in the first 2-4 weeks and then rush that sucker into home video 3.5 months later, you can minimize those interest payments and recoup your own money much faster.

 

TFA is going to drop another 452 theaters for the weekend, now down to 1810.

That may sounds like much, but it is pretty much the smallest drop among the movies running in lots of theaters. There are three new releases with 3300+ theaters, plus two 2000+ movies that can't drop any theaters yet.
Kung Fu Panda 3 is only dropping 143, but that movie is in its third week and it is currently the number 1. Ride Along 2 is dropping 610, Revenant and The Boy about 750, Dirty Grandpa 955, 13 Hours over 1100, The Finest Hours over 1300 and Fifty Shades of Black almost 1600. The drops for movies that already were under (or around) 1000 theaters are obviously a bit smaller.

With one exception, and that's a huge one: Jane got a Gun dropped from 1031 to just 8 theaters...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2016&wk=07&p=.htm

 

its funny people thought AOU would be 1 in the u.s. and TFA 2nd. then when JW crushed AOU that somehow meant TFA was looking at 3rd place.lol

 

My prediction before it came out, came true when it crossed 2 billion worldwide. I wasn't sure if it would beat Avatar, and it looks like it won't now, but man it was both a good movie and as successful as I thought it would be.

Now I'm thinking about how VIII will do, especially if it's also well-received by critics and fans.

 

it beat avatar and titanic where i live and crushed them both

 

Man WB suits really must either think of the world of this movie or think it's a total dud. This is what? Maybe the 4th extended trailer. I think we seen a good ten minutes of footage, at least it seems that way. It seems like just such a busy movie, even more busy then MoS and that pretty much gave me a headache from how it busy it was.

 

Everything you say there is correct.

Especially the fact that the enormous take of Jurassic was a clear indication that TFA could much better still. You are also 100% correct about studios having an interest in movies being as front-loaded as possible. It's called "time-value-of-money" The faster you get it, the better it is.

And yes, I would not be slightly worried that the US total of TFA could be threatened just because a movie opens with $300m. Chances are that that movie will fall precipitously after that.

 

WB have invested a lot of money in BvS and have the entire DCU riding on it. Of course they will promote BvS with everything they got.

But I think they went overboard here. Even though their latest trailer looks epic, they have (via their multiple trailers) already revealed too much, something that was unnecessary. People would have shown up for BvS regardless.

Anyway, the latest trailer is quite astonishing to be honest.

 

I hate Warners. The worst studio in many ways.

 

Why do you say that?

 

That's because GL ruined SW's chastity and then pimped it out to Disney.

 

Hard to argue against that lol

What's amazing is that Disney made back half the money the paid him in the first movie of many.

 

PPZVGOS

Oh I agree about the marketing going into hyperdrive at this point. Disney did the same thing with TFA. Once that feature trailer dropped on MNF, the hype machine was on supernova. I was talking more about the trailers. Again this is the fourth one. We seen several minutes of screen time (compared to TFA where if you put everything together we didn't see all that much) therefore at this point it's overkill.

As for trailer, I get the same feeling as we move along. I don't know what to make of it. I thought the beginning forty seconds was awesome (though it seem like that it ripped right out of Arkham Knight gameplay!) but there is other stuff where that makes me wince. I am trying to keep my expectations low but I shouldn't. Quite frankly this should be an absolute epic movie. It has the two greatest superheros in it together FINALLY! But right now I just settled for a fun popcorn flick. Ironically my expectations for Deadpool which should be low considering what it is are actually higher. And I am not even taken in it's current 81% score on RT which considering not only what the subject matter but also the fact the filmmakers have pretty much said "yeah this film is going to honk a lot of people off!" (which is the opposite of TFA which was made to make as many people as happy....critics, diehard fans, casual movie goers etc the goal was not to offend any of them and please whereever/whenever they could). So while I am going into Deadpool saying "this should be bleeping awesome", but I am going into DOJ going "Please..please..don't suck!"

Edit: kip73

Yeah and right now, Star Wars is saving Disney's paint. ESPN is absolutely reeling right now. If it weren't for SW, Disney's stock would be tumbling like Lionsgate did after THG4 disappointed who btw is blaming Star Wars for it which I called total BS on. Maybe TFA caused THG4 from crossing the $400 million mark but it had nothing to do with it being the lowest THG film domestically. Blame that on several things including crappy marketing (again), a pretty boring film considering it is the "last" of the series to a very unenthusiastic press junket from the stars particularly JL who one point said "See the movie, don't see the movie. I don't care" etc.

And people wonder why Bob Iger (and I assume several other TV executives) are calling Tim Cook going "You are going to save our paint right? Your idea for a TV that is all apps that people subscribe to individual channels via a ala carte is going to be out soon right?!?!"

 

Well, JW did $228.7 in China vs. $125.4 for TFA. But didn't WN release JP 3D sincecJP wasn't even released in China?

I'm pleasantly surprised. In Japan JW did $74.6, while TFA has done $87.8. The JP attraction is so popular here in USJ in Osaka and TFA did only $10.2 on OW. But now I've double checked, JW did $6.8 OW, so blockbusters may have great legs in Japan.

 

Legion my friends in Asia are mostly Filipino or Singaporean, and they pretty much like Star Wars as much as we do.

Do you know why Chinese and Japanese folks don't really care for it? I have always been curious about that, and I like learning and the likes/dislikes of other cultures. You seem to be up on it, which is the only reason why I'm asking you lol

 

SOOoooooo underwhelmed by that trailer!!!

 

Japanese care for SW a lot. It's huge there.
Concerning China. OT was never released there and PT was released when the market was non existent, so they're not familiar with the franchise at all. The 7th sequel, requiring at least some basic knowledge of the lore, was always going to be hard pressed to break records there. TFA is the best (or one of the best) franchise openers in China. It did better than any Marvel movie apart from AOU. It did better than any DC movie as well. TFA made more than the first and second Transformers and any of the F&F movie. All of those franchise had several years to grow in China, hence the results of Transformers 4, Furious 7, Age of Ultron. None of their preceding/franchise opening movies did better than TFA.

 

i dont get the whole purpose of batman v superman. i've seen the trailer while watching TFA and from what it looked like spencer from criminal minds (or someone who looks alot like him) is pitting them against each other. why? and why would we care?

 

Have to admit, I was one of them. Despite apparent pre-hype, I was sure AOU would be #1 for the year. Yep, I am being honest. I thought AOU would open at around $215 million and make around $585 million. I had JW at around $90-something for the opening and around $250 million over all. When AOU fell under projection and took major hits in weeks 3 and 4, I was wondering if (a) it opened the door for TFA to be #1 or (b) if the blockbuster reign was diminishing. When JW shot forward with its crazy numbers, I thought "uh oh" just when the smoke may have been clear for TFA, the dinodrama did what AOU may have done if it were better received. There was NO way in my mind TFA would come within striking range of JW. Yep, it's all in here somewhere if you can find it. And with aggressive (but not so convincing) arguments for TFA opening with less than $140 million, I was leaning for a distant second or close third.

LOL-yeah all THAT happened, right???

 

hey your a 140 opening weekend prediction was optimistic in comparison to some lol

though i dont get how you thought TFA's BO would be bad based on the character names released after the first trailer lol

 

Hey you went back a long way to find that stuff lol.

 

yeah when i have extra time and the thread has been moving slowly lol

its funny reading some of the predictions cause i see them say 'it will make a billion easy' and then i have to remember they are talking overall and not domestic only lol

 

So it's virtually unlikely that TFA will be able to pass "Avatar" in the global box office... Not surprising, as $2.78b is just a step too far for Episode 7 to reach!

Still, the chance to be No. 2 after overtaking "Titanic" is something for TFA to look at... But one thing's for sure - TFA is the most successful sequel of any movie ever!

http://www.fox5ny.com/entertainment/88889872-story


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i realize it doesnt mean anything for people living outside of those countries but TFA walloped both avatar and titanic in the U.S. and the U.K.