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Solo Solo box-office discussion

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Anthology (Released Films)' started by dolphin, Nov 29, 2017.

  1. NHB0M

    NHB0M Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 13, 2016
    My previous post wasn't about if TLJ was the sole factor. I know its not. It was just about how much compared to how it factor the anticipation for 9 and RJ's trilogy.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  2. Ender_and_Bean

    Ender_and_Bean Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    It certainly seems to be the one TLJ haters mention the most though. In all of your posts in this thread how many have you seriously exploring the importance of the many other factors that have been offered not only by others in this thread by box office experts and journalists?

    I firmly believe TLJ played some role in the box office but I believe even more strongly that there are other factors -- many of which have been discussed -- that are more directly responsible for the box office of Solo that have nothing to do with TLJ and that box office history supports that.

    As I've shared many times before, some of the lowest performing Marvel properties in their MCU came directly after some of their bigger performers. The larger performers did not make people not want to experience the lower performers. Other factors did. The more content there is available the more likely a tier system begins for those who can't afford the time or money to see them all and with 4 films in 3 years and 2 in 6 months I believe that has occurred within Star Wars for the first time and that many people saw middling reviews, saw an origin story that didn't feel essential, saw a no name actor that didn't look or sound like Harrison Ford at all, giving the film a lower budget feel than it truly had, and saw some widely panned advertising efforts that many people agree didn't do a great job of establishing some kind of "must see hook" and thought, "That's more of a renter for me." Especially only 6 months after being bombarded with other ads featuring the Falcon spinning around.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  3. Stymi

    Stymi Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jan 10, 2002
    Excellent points. Right Wing idealogy always gets a pass.

    Also...Star Wars has always had pretty hard liberal leanings/messaging. Lucas blatantly talks about it.

    I think people are more sensitive to it now though due to the general divide in US politics.

    Sent from my Moto X-Wing
     
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  4. Bor Mullet

    Bor Mullet Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 6, 2018
    I'm going to stick with this report as the most reliable information we have about the reasons behind Solo's BO performance until additional research is done. Unlike you, I'm not going to make definitive and aggressive statements about how TLJ has blown up the fandom, and caused Solo to bomb. That's the problem. You rail on with certainty, fire and brimstone. I think the reasonable thing to do is take what legitimate information is out there, and wait for more data, before casting judgment. That's what LFL will do, in any event. And that is what will inform their future decisions. I suspect that at this point, the lesson they have taken from Solo is: a longer marketing window, and caution when recasting favorites. But I'll wait to see more data before making a definitive judgment. But at this stage, we simply have no evidence affirming that TLJ played a significant role in Solo's performance.

    You have a right to that opinion, of course. But you have to be cognizant of the simple fact that this is a Star Wars messageboard, and the incessant promotion of another franchise as superior to the one this forum is dedicated to, will be perceived as close to, if not, trolling. By all means, occasionally note that the latest Marvel films are working for you in a way that the latest Star Wars films aren't. But making it a huge feature of nearly every conversation here is creating an atmosphere of hostility here, and driving away a lot of fans who are enjoying these films (or at least, some of them).

    Because it's not about "was it a factor?" Yes, it was "a" factor, as some fans (including here) have said it is a factor in why they decided not to see Solo, or only see it once, in the cinema. The question is "was it a statistically-significant factor?" And right now, there is no evidence whatsoever confirming that it was. And in that context, many objective people can safely say that there's no evidence of TLJ's reception among audiences being a factor in Solo's Box Office results. We just can't say that yet with any degree of certainty. And that's a pretty objective take. Not least as in my case, I don't even enjoy TLJ that much. So that's not affecting my judgment at all.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  5. TheCloneWarsForever

    TheCloneWarsForever Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Apr 24, 2018
    Perhaps because that's the one that has the largest number of deniers?
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  6. NHB0M

    NHB0M Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 13, 2016
    There's a lot of discussions around Black Panther. Including common themes it shares with Thor Ragnarok like colonialism and the sins of the fathers.

    There are people who think some of the latest Marvel movies handled certain themes, villains , poc and female characters, etc better than the last SW movies.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  7. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    I agree and I have said this before.
    TLJ is not the only or even a major factor.
    But to deny that it is a factor at all or that it is so small that it does not matter, that I don't is supported by what we know thus far.

    Again we have seen this in lots of other film series.

    X-Men FC, recast several beloved actors and and followed two films, one a bit iffy and the other really disliked.
    And it's gross was much lower, Despite it getting much better reviews and is thought of as one of the best X-Men films by a fair number of fans.

    As for AotC and TPM.
    Remember, AotC dropped a lot from TPM. Not as much as Solo to be sure. But a big drop.
    And back then, I remember a fair number of posters here thought that AotC would be the no one film for the year, at least domestic.
    Harry Potter one had done almost a billion WW and made more than TPM WW.
    So that AotC would not beat the second HP film was not unreasonable.

    But that it would drop that much and be no three for the year domestic and no four WW.
    I doubt many expected that.

    And like with Solo, people blamed the marketing, the competition but some were reluctant to consider that TPM might have had a part in this.

    About Solo and why it dropped so much harder than AotC.
    I think that the short time, the less than great marketing, the overall less appeal of the idea hurt it.
    TPM left some disappointed and some did not come back for AotC.
    But three years had passed, there had been more marketing, people saw that this would not have kid Anakin, which had annoyed some.
    In short, AotC had more time to mend the fences.

    Solo came out very soon after TLJ and if one disliked TLJ or was iffy about it and tired of SW.
    Now another film comes out and you might not bother with it.
    And this brings in that now we have lots of SW films in a fairly short time.
    AotC was just the second SW film in a long time and three years had passed.

    Had AotC come out six months after TPM, then I think it's BO might have been a bit different.

    Bye for now.
    Old Stoneface
     
  8. 2Cleva

    2Cleva Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 28, 2002
    THIS. There is your answer @Ender_and_Bean and @Bor Mullet as why its discussed. Its also one that reflects the potential biggest issue. Schedule, marketing, lighting or whatever is blamed are far easier to correct than an franchise going downhill and losing long-time supporters.

    And screw the Alt-right and the xenophobic reasons people are mad at Star Wars.
     
  9. Ender_and_Bean

    Ender_and_Bean Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    Any denial stems more from a notion that it is the single largest factor and the notion earlier in this thread that this was some kind of victory for TLJ haters as a referendum on that film.

    We all know that TLJ is a highly divisive film. We also know that despite that it still has a truncated mean of around 7.0 out of 10 on the entire table tht Magnar created. Films objectively averaging out to around 7.0 out of 10 are not seen as disasters by the masses. Even in Star Wars. If the film was widely seen as a 3.0 out of 10 dud that had little support anywhere, including critics, and the averages were all in that range the case would be stronger for the theory but they weren't so it's difficult -- no it's impossible -- to chalk up the box office of Solo exclusively, or even as the largest single factor, as some kind of referendum statement for TLJ. 7.0 out of 10 range average observed over multiple sites, including the single largest one of them all IMDB, means a generally solid if unspectacular reaction from the masses. In other words, if you hate TLJ and see it as a 1.0-3.0 out of 10 film then you are further from the truncated mean pooled collectively over multiple sites than anyone who sees it as an 8.0 or 9.0 out of 10 film. Stop and consider that for a moment.

    The claim doesn't have a line of best fit on other large properties that have also had low earners following big ones either. Marvel has had many low earners and many of them followed higher earning films. The lower performance of some of Marvel's lower performers is not seen as a referendum on the more popular films that preceded. There are other factors at work that drive general audience interest. The claim is also undone by the dominance of other reasons that have been presented by others with less bias than anyone posting in this forum. Solo is truly a unique offering within Star Wars as we know it and as a result reaction to it is also unique to itself. Not only because it was a prequel with critical acclaim comparable to AOTC for the general public and a RT summary line that begins with "A flawed..." Not only because Han Solo was recast by someone younger that few people seem to think look or sounds like him. Not only because it's the first film in the history of the brand that released two movies within 6 months of each other both featuring the Falcon heavily in advertising. Not only because it's the first Star Wars film that didn't seem to have a "must see" hook that was obvious to general audiences or explored strongly in advertising to the extent where the entire advertising strategy has already been called into question. Not only because the film's troubled production seemed to follow whatever positive press the film aimed for. Not only because it was sandwiched between two other big comic book movies that many paid to go see in theatres for. Not only because as the 4th film in 3 years some casuals may have the impression that they are really milking the brand. BUT ALL OF THESE REASONS COMBINED. Yes, including TLJ but that is one part only and very possibly one of the smaller parts overall.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
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  10. The Last Cookiemonster

    The Last Cookiemonster Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Nope, I specifically addressed what you linked, which had absolutely 0% of anything like that, but did have analysis as pithy as this:

    > Disappointment with Last Jedi. While Last Jedi received critical acclaim (91% Rotten Tomatoes rating), it received a mixed reaction from audiences, as some thought it was too much of a revisionist take on Star Wars. However, if the franchise was able to survive Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones, we have a hard time believing Last Jedi could have done that much damage.

    Some amazing in-depth professional analysis there... I mean geeze, these are top of the line sources which you keep trying to beat us over the head with as some sort of objectively better measure.

    Yet curiously it gives Zero acknowledgement of the legs falling out from under The Last Jedi at the box office, leading to the largest drop from opening weekend in box office history, or the well known historical trend of followups to disliked movies suffering at the box office, regardless of their own quality, because of the very simple to understand fact that audiences don't come back as much if they don't like something, and will if they like something, as demonstrated again and again.

    [​IMG]

    With a Star Wars movie - of all things - becoming a historic box office bomb, after the legs fell out from under the last saga movie to achieve the biggest second weekend drop in box office history, of both movies falling hundreds of millions of dollars short of predictions, of toy sales coming in hundreds of millions of dollars below their targets, with disc sales dropping >50% in 2 years well beyond any market drop, etc, with the fan base full of unhappy people everywhere I go online and offline, with something like 4 sets of directors fired or replaced in something like 6 movies, while several other franchises are doing fantastically at the exact same time, I'd say damn right I'm discussing 'fire and brimstone' if something isn't changed. A Star Wars movie just bombed, hard, coming in multiple times lower than even the most cynical of professional predictions, and some people keep insisting that everything is fine and are even angry at those of us not playing at ignoring the massive evidence of the titanic sinking. It was the same story all over the world in all the markets where SW has traditionally been strong, Solo has become uncharacteristically US-heavy for its box office, yet small local explanations like bad weather in one country or bad advertising in another keeps being thrown out there, while the elephant in the room is angrily ignored.

    We have multiple lines of evidence all pointing to a significant problem in the health of the franchise, with it diving into massive bomb territory in just 3 years, so yes, serious discussion, which isn't all roses and blind optimism, is warranted. You'd think the progression of this thread from bold predictions of 1 - 2 billion at the box office for Solo would have snapped the illusion for those relying on these cherry picked excuses and reasons to explain that everything's fine, when it now maybe won't even reach 400 million WW at the box office.

    On a side note, asking people point blank why they don't want to see Solo is useless to me without looking at context. I didn't want to see Rogue One in nearly the exact same way, but saw it because I still felt that all-important unique enthusiasm about Star Wars still which is what makes it this epically successful movie series, because of how many people in the world still felt that way - the GA didn't just randomly all show up to the same franchise-movies repeatedly at the same time for no reason, and they haven't all just stopped for no reason. The marketing and idea sucked in both cases, yet Rogue One came out dramatically different, the franchise was strong and healthy as evidenced in multiple ways, which isn't evidenced now. The very notion of even treating a Star Wars IP entry as needing advertising in the same way as a regular unknown movie seems intentionally obtuse. It reminds me of those people who keep citing cinema score claiming it's 'scientific', because they don't know any actual damn scientists and don't understand that context matters, and that models without any specificity or sensitivity are useless - when all the prequels and sequels achieve one of two outputs, an A- or an A, regardless of inputs, your model is beyond useless for describing anything in the real world, regardless of whether you passed muster on some basic requirements like a suitable sample size.
     
  11. Ender_and_Bean

    Ender_and_Bean Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    Looks like the public HATED the Potter finale and the Dark Knight rises due to those MASSIVE drop offs. Looks like word of mouth was horrible! The legs fell right off of those!

    Or maybe... just maybe... the excitement was so much higher for all 3 of these properties, and indeed many properties with hardcore fans, that most people saw these films early into the process in historic numbers and that was that. Maybe having ANY historic opening can lead to dramatic drops afterward because, well, when something is historic to start it can just as easily be historic to drop. Maybe all that matters in the end is the total box office dollars and the amount of people who saw something because of how misleading drops can be for situations where most people who wanted to see something did go and see it early.

    Maybe there's less people interested in Star Wars films in any era after that first film curiosity factor dies down that always seems to benefit the first film of each era that's ever been. Maybe the second film numbers of each of the release eras that comes next is a better representation of the true pool of people who are truly up for grabs after all of the initial decade-long curiosity seekers have realized again that "Yeah, still Star Wars. Still not quite sure what all the hype is about" have checked back out again.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
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  12. Lordban

    Lordban Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Nov 9, 2000
    TLJ's second Sunday was Dec. 24th, a peculiarity none of the other movies in the top leg loss had to face.
     
  13. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Last Jedi's second weekend was Christmas weekend, hence the big drop off. Wouldn't it be more telling to look at the films' multipliers? Jedi's multiplier was 2.8 - how does that compare with the others? Deathly Hallows 2 had a 2.27 multiplier. Among the Marvel films, Captain America: Civil War had the worst legs with a 2.28 multiplier. Dawn of Justice is probably one of the worst performers, with a multiplier of less than 2. And yet Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman, both in the same universe, went on to do very well.

    I think the problem with Solo is that it didn't have a hook to draw people in. Whereas Rogue One had a compelling storyline, terrific battle scenes, great visuals, and Lord Vader in action, Solo didn't really offer anything extraordinary. It had some nice action scenes, which doubtless would have been quite spectacular ten years ago, but they pale in comparison to what one sees these days in most actioners. Ehrenreich is competent but doesn't have the charisma or swagger of Harrison Ford, and a really good leading man might have helped sell the film despite its other shortcomings.
     
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  14. The Last Cookiemonster

    The Last Cookiemonster Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Both of those were a big let down compared to the early entries in the series imo, stretching out the HP finale into two parts meant that the movie before it ended in a dumb position halfway through a bland stretched out half story and didn't leave a very good feeling, meaning the next one was frontloaded by fans but many of us decided nope. That list is packed with stuff like Spider-Man 3, BvS, Suicide Squad - some of the biggest franchises going south moments there are, for a good reason. Notice how there's not a single Marvel or other Star Wars movie on there, no classics, notice how they all have something very much in common. TLJ did not do well after its front loaded opening either, it soon dropped below Rogue One's weekly earnings - the more audiences were reacting to it rather than its predecessors, it couldn't even beat a small spin-off prequel without the main cast and decades of hype built around it as a main saga entry.
     
  15. Ender_and_Bean

    Ender_and_Bean Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    What I see are big opening weekends garnered by a mix of hardcore fan support and public interest that brought most of the people that were most interested in those films to the box office early.
     
  16. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    The most damaging effect of the Solo bomb is not the financial loss to Disney/LFL (they can absorb it easily), it is the emerging narrative that SW has “bad” fans. We’ve all seen the articles, some of them from major publications like Hollywood Reporter and The Guardian, focusing on a specific, bigoted minority of the fandom as being responsible for all of the franchise’s woes. The danger here is that public perception can quickly transform from “the fandom is toxic” to “the brand is toxic”. It’s almost hard to remember now, but just 15 years ago there was a prevailing opinion that all persons over the age of 14 who read comic books or watched Star Wars movies were anti-social, hygienically challenged Peter-Pans and that stereotype can come back faster than I think anyone realizes.

    LFL needs to have a come-to-Jesus moment. They need to publicly condemn the right-wing elements of the fandom, but in the same moment they need to clearly and unequivocally defend the rest of us, even those who have criticized them. They need to say Star Wars actually has the best fans in the world, because right now they are losing control of the narrative. The alt-right trolls are going to keep on antagonizing and generating controversies, doing anything to make their influence appear greater than it actually is. LFL needs to get in front of this before it gets out of hand. If they think that letting Pablo Hidalgo and Chuck Wendig get into flame wars on Twitter is the answer then they are screwed. That is only going to make things worse.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  17. DominusNovus

    DominusNovus Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Excuse me?
     
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  18. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Ok, lets compare the gross of TFA/R1, TLJ/SOLO and HP 8/FB

    Gross: Domestic M$ WW M$ Drop from TFA/TLJ/HP 8 (Dom/WW)
    TFA : 936 2068
    R1 : 532 1056 43 % / 49 %

    HP 8 : 381 1341
    FB : 234 814 39 % / 39 %

    TLJ : 620 1333
    Solo : 210 400 66 % / 70 %

    I assumed a final gross for Solo as 210 M domestic and 400 M WW.

    Solo has a far larger drop than either R1 or FB.
    About 70 % compared with about 45 % for R1 and less than 40 % for FB.

    And speaking of FB.
    It is set in the past, has almost no characters from the previous films and does not deal with an event that the other films dealt much with or even at all.

    Let's assume that instead of R1, they had decided to make a film that was set 50 years before TPM and the only known character that would appear is a young Valorum.
    Would that film have made as much as R1?

    As for Dark Knight Rises, it made about as much as the Dark Knight WW and domestic there was the rather horrible event of the guy shooting up one cinema that showed the film.

    The total gross of BvS is 330 M domestic and 870 M WW.
    Not too bad right?
    But given that the opening weekend was 166 M and the total was less than twice that, it does indicate quite strongly that the legs were very bad.
    The initial interest was there but then VOM was not good.

    Wonder Woman had an opening weekend of 103 M, much less than BvS but total gross was over 400 M.
    So it had very good VOM.

    [/QUOTE]

    But why is SW different from other series?
    Marvel has managed to have big films, like Iron Man and then even bigger films like the Avengers.
    BP is the highest grossing MCU film domestic and it is what, the 18th film?
    And the 19th film is even bigger WW.

    The LotR films each made more than the one before.
    The Hobbit films, the second dropped a bit from the first but the third hardly dropped at all.
    The Harry Potter films showed quite remarkable BO consistency.

    The DCEU had two films that made 330-325 M domestic and the one after that made over 400 M.
    The the fourth made a little less than 230 M.

    Lastly, R1 dropped from TFA but TLJ increased from R1.

    Bye for now.
    The Guarding Dark
     
  19. WookieeShampoo

    WookieeShampoo Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Marvel has this "endless" comic series feel, I think people except the high rate of films as part of this brand´s charme.
    Star Wars feels more epic and people might feel like too many films in short time cheapen the franchise.
     
  20. MS1

    MS1 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Fair point. I think he means to be specifically addressing just the toxic part of the argument but the statement is overly general.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  21. Bor Mullet

    Bor Mullet Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 6, 2018
    But where is the evidence for TLJ playing a meaningful role in Solo's Box Office take?

    So far, the only decently reliable evidence we have about why Solo performed the way it performed is that the marketing campaign was unusually short, and audiences weren't given enough time (or reason, from the trailers) to accept a new Han. While there is more analysis to be done, that's literally the only good information we have thus far for why Solo may not have done well. Nothing else even comes close to being as explanatory. So until some rigorous analysis comes along and declares TLJ a major contributing factor, I will reasonably be very skeptical of that line of argument.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  22. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    I mean a very small, specific element of the fandom which has been spreading bigotry and harassing/trolling public figures like Kelly Marie Tran. "Right-wing" element might be too vague but I'm not sure exactly what to call them. I don't think they are a large segment of the fandom but they do exist and I think it's important to acknowledge that and give an appropriate response. I think that a very specific condemnation (maybe identifying specific Youtubers by name would be counterproductive, but it could be valuable too, I'm not sure) is the correct way to go. They exist, but they do not represent the Star Wars fandom.

    Edit: Honestly, I'm not sure exactly where Disney/LFL should draw the line in their condemnation. Obviously they must oppose threats of violence and outright hatred, but as to other narratives like whether SW has become "feminazi propaganda", it's harder to know what to tolerate as free speech and what must be confronted. At the end of the day, they need to take actions to improve the public perception of the fandom. I think the best way to do that is to identify specific behaviors or people that are undeniably odious, isolate them from the fandom overall, and denounce them.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
  23. TheCloneWarsForever

    TheCloneWarsForever Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Apr 24, 2018
    I would just call them "those who harass and threaten public figures." Who they vote for is NOB.
     
  24. DominusNovus

    DominusNovus Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Its not that its too vague, its that it is relatively irrelevant to the topic. They're trolls, simple as that. Drawing a line down the middle of political discourse and saying "there are some trolls on the right side of this line, so we're going to call them right-wing" is little different than drawing a line down the middle of the fandom and saying "there are trolls that hate TLJ, so we're going to call all TLJ haters trolls."
     
  25. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    SW fans take the movies WAY too seriously. People posting bad reviews, siting SJW agendas, claiming their childhoods were taken away, protesting, boycotting, whatever. Nobody did this for any Marvel film. It is coming back to bite the SW franchise by making fans that are written about (much of that being the fault of the media) look like pathetic losers who live in their elderly parents' basements. And the more stories there are, the more average people start to wonder if it isn't "cool" to even see a SW movie or publicly claim they even like SW anymore. In general, all the griping makes SW fandom look bad.
     
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