ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

When I heard about Boss Baby, I thought it was a bit too soon to make a Donald Trump biopic. Guess I was wrong.

 

It's much more then Paul Walker and the Chinese audience. Furious is maybe the best non-Disney property right now. It sells across many different markets across the globe. Furious 8 won't make Furious 7 money particularly here but there will not be this massive drop off. It's just a great popcorn franchise that truly has taken on a life of it's own. The first one is still the best but outside of the second one, the whole series has been quite entertaining.

 

Yeah. Probably the best moneymaker franchise outside of Disney. Paramount has Transformers, Warner struggling a bit with DC and doing ok with Potter spin off. Then Fox awaits the next blue storm coming.

Sony...still have Ghostbusters. Hmm. And loosing James Bond, then Spiderman to the rescue!

 

Fast and Furious films tap domestically into an untapped market (urban/black/Latino/Hispanic/Asian American) that other Hollywood blockbuster wannabes (like the previous mentioned new King Arthur) ignore.

 

What's gonna be the biggest flop of the year?

 

I hope it's not Blade Runner 2049. But I don't think it could pull a "Mad Max: Fury Road" and be better than the original in every way.

 

Agree but keep in mind when it first came out (2001) it played to young people (our age) who just were car enthusiasts. I still never forget seeing the very first one at the theater opening weekend. People were parking in the grass at the AMC 30 by me. Still never seen it since. Anyrate besides taking into that untapped market, it's kept many fans (like me) of that time interested in it.

I think Blade Runner 2049 could be like Mad Max: Fury Road,at least that is my hope!

 

Agreed. It was definitely youth oriented when it first came out.

I wonder if the mid-20 year olds here consider the franchise long-in-the-tooth.

 

I would very much say that FF7 thrived due to Paul Walker's death and everything associated with it. That franchise does not see such a huge jump if it weren't for that death, it basically doubled the 6th one worldwide and also made more than the 5th and 6th combined. Regardless of how popular these kind of movies can be, you don't see that kind of explosion if there isn't a very particular reason for it.

It also doesn't matter that Paul Walker wasn't a huge star. He was fairly young, good-looking and died in a car-accident that involved an expensive car, fitting right to the FF-movies. It was huge news, especially due to the circumstances. That kind of thing drives interest, even more so when you have people who have a huge following on social-media, like Vin Diesel.


As for BatB, at this point any hope for 500m seems to fade rather quickly. The Monday estimate is 3.1m, down 55% from last week. With that kind of drop, it could be 49/50m behind Rogue One by the end of Thursday, and just 4m or so ahead of Finding Dory. It might put a bit more distance between itself and the latter over the weekend, but following that, the weekdays should always favour FD over the next few weeks. It would need some really good weekends to make up for that and reach 500m.

 

I can't wait for more movies to make over RO number and push it out of domestic Top 10 (currently #7). TLJ looks to be the first one but I'm crossing fingers for some surprises. Overseas and worldwide, RO is a toast as it'll leave Top 20 worldwide shortly when BatB gets there and continue falling.

 

The 2017 movies most likely to underperform worldwide relative to their huge budgets and/or outsize expectations:

Mummy
Justice League
Valerian
Alien
Blade Runner
Spider-man

 

I'm hoping (though doubtful) that at least one those, if not a blockbuster, will at least be a fan favorite masterpiece like Fury Road.

 

Wait. Are you hoping for other non-Star Wars films to make more than RO, or just future Star Wars films?

 

Only Blade Runner has that shot. Mummy looks crap. Chick isn't scary at all. Justice league, from the director of BvS, nuff said. Valerian has some nice visuals but the blandest leads this side of RO. Jupiter Ascending 2.0. Alien: Covenant is a sequel to Promcrapeus. Nuff said. Spiderman looks like Iron Man 4. depending on whether you are more in iron Man camp or Spidey camp, that one can go either way.

Gigoran Monk Anything. Just push it out. Anything. I'll take anything that gets it off the list ASAP.

 

You know I love you, but you're getting close to trolling/ bashing on this subject. There's a complaints thread on the Rogue One forum, though.

 

Gigoran Monk I'll stop now and then I'm gonna gloat every time it goes down the list, any list.

 

No worries. Some people simply prefer live-action cartoons over live-action human characters.

 

cartoon or live-action, both are better than cardboard cutouts.

 

Right. Because "getting a random droid to a base" is a much more complex character motivation than "atoning for a life wasted by misguided feelings of abandonment and betrayal, and carrying the sacrificial heroic legacy of the redeemed parent."

Anyway, I hope TLJ breaks all kinds of BO records. And I certainly hope it beats RO. But that's just because I want each good Star Wars film to be more successful than the last.

 

I really want Valerian to be good/do well because Luc Besson is a guilty pleasure but with a $180 million production cost (x 2 for media cost) that looks like a bomb waiting to happen. So does The Mummy as I honestly think audiences only really want to see Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible and pretend he is Tom Cruise circa 1996 for two hours. King Arthur looks like a disaster as well. And even though we haven't seen a single shot of it, The Dark Tower just smells like it's going to be a bomb with everyone we been discussing. Obviously there will be others but those so far seem destined to make the accountants be eating Tums like candy.

The Defenders btw got a release date of 8/18 this year. Watching these Marvel TV shows just reminds me how much potential they have with Star Wars.

 

The new Ghost in the Shell suffers from the same issue of BatB.

The transition of anime and cartoons to live action is tough do do.

 

Valerian will be the biggest flop of the year. The trailer makes the movie looks like one big special effect with no heart or humor. What crowd are they appealing to?

 

Hopefully, I've been longing for a new trend of cyberpunk noir to take off.

 

OMG I am sorry, I was talking about the new Ghost in the Shell, sorry. Fixed.