ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

I don't know if Star Wars are repetitive, but there's definitely a Marvel formula, and a not very risky one. Also, well, each one has their own opinion but i never saw a Marvel movie that looked like actual Cinema (by which i mean trying to translate/create something onscreen through directing, editing, pacing, storytelling, composition,any visual/audio techinique, eveything that constitutes the cinematic grammar/language). They just "film" the story, the directing never tries to convey anyting more than what's on the script. I don't like Snyder's style/movies at all, but at least he's trying..."something"

 

Your a great representation of the general public as your 30% drop off in the amount of times you've seen TFA to TLJ is almost the same as the overall box office drop off

 

You just wait for the mid life crisis Robert Downey jr - [REMOVED]. Then the fans will go crazy. Seriously, Marvel could need some 3 dimensional character layers in some of their outings. It never ends. Nobody dies. Yes, they suffer, but they can´t die!

That said. I think Kevin Feige is taking the right steps now to take another direction. Because you know what that actually does end? Success. Success does not last forever. Not even Star Wars.....

Mod edit: Removed - inappropriate

 

30 m estimation for monday is too hight too, when i see the saturday-sunday drop, i would say 25 million monday max not 30

 

Don't worry about it @Darth Luch. It's all just check and balance from my point of view. Plus, the truth is Disney and Lucasfilm really has to map out the next 20 years of Star Wars movies. We need a visionary on the helm, like Kevin Feige, even Kathleen Kennedy is doing a pretty great job. I am optimistic they will produce even greater films with RJ's trilogy, B&W's series and beyond. At the same time, I am pretty sure the people as Lucasfilm are aware of the current popular and trending threats ( Marvel, future Transformers reboot, Avatar and so on ).

We live in a very different world today, and if Star Wars can really keep up their game, and do better and better, we can go higher and higher to a galaxy far, far away itself.

 

Marvel does a pretty good job of what it sets out to do- make a movie out of a comic book hero. No, it isn't in the same league with SW, but I don't hate them, and some of them are pretty good (I liked Dr. Strange). I think on Netflix Jessica Jones and Daredevil are better than the Marvel movies (Luke Cage is pretty good too).

I think SW will always be ahead in terms of Box Office.

 

Lol well my viewings are down 30% from TFA and Rogue One but that means nothing because TLJ just hasn’t been in theaters as long and wont be, either. So it literally is everyone else’s fault that I can’t hit my viewing total lol

 

Nah, 30m is likely to be way too low. It's a holiday. And just like Disney has often done, they have really underestimated the Sunday. It's not coming in at about 50m, as estimated by Disney, but at slightly below 60m, which means the movie is going to pass 200m for the weekend. It also means that it is very close to the record Sunday set by TFA. With Monday being a holiday, BP might actually have a chance to take the biggest Monday from TFA.

Do they?
There doesn't seem to be much difference for most of the reactions.
Not to mention that the MCU-fanbase is still quite a bit smaller than the one of Star Wars. There was obviously a core comic-audience, but the movie-fanbase is a fairly recent thing that is vastly bigger than the old comic fanbase. For Star Wars, it is the opposite. The fanbase comes more or less entirely from the movies. And that fanbase has already been split into many different parts. The MCU-fanbase merely has had the luck so far that there wasn't anything that could have split it.

 

Is Monday really a holiday? Does anyone get President's Day off?

 

@cerealbox Oh,no? And who did Finn get his Han Wannabe Jacket from?



Good point about BBs (British Brunettes).

RE: Marvel and SW. I didn't want to start who's better/worse debate. I just think that MCU plans their roaster much better than SW. Those movies they release make sense in the grand scheme of things because they all build up to something bigger. I still don't understand why LF is making OT era stand-alones which are irrelevant to the new Episodes. I'd be perfectly fine if standalones covered the ground that's important to the new Episodes but there's no time to explore it there. Like, first Jedi, Jedi/Sith schism, the fall of the New Republic. But this is so random even if you view them as companion movies to OT movies.

 

Black Panther within striking distance of TLJ's 4-day opening:



TLJ 4-day opening: $241,565,957

 

*TLJ non-holiday 4-day opening*

 

Looks like BP will be ahead of TLJ on Day 2, Day 3, and Day 4 out of the first 4 days based on the estimates and what Gitesh tweeted. The only day it looks like it'll be below TLJ will be on Day 1 out of the first four days. It gets harder on Day 5 once people are back at school and work.

earlier Black Panther daily studio estimates
Day 1: $75,808,000 (BP = TLJ -27.58%)
Day 2: $65,893,000 (BP = TLJ +2.97%)
Day 3: $50,322,000 (BP = TLJ -1.97%)
Day 4: $26,177,000 (BP = TLJ +21.44%)

 

I can't really agree with that, Marvel perhaps don't go down the "atmospheric grimdark" route DC have atempted but there is obviously a good deal of variety across there films which is I think a lot of the reason that they've carried on making money. I think there was a period about 5 years ago were they looked like they might be running out of steam pushing the same formula rather too much but they've diversified since then.

 

I prefer TLJ but also only saw TLJ 4 times vs the 9 times I saw TFA.

 

It doesn't have quite the same impact as, for example, Memorial Day, but it is definately noticeable. Instead of everything being down in the 60 or 70% range from Sunday, drops range from being down only around 50% to even being up in some cases (animation). Last year the top 10 dropped like this: -10, -45, -48, -54, -46, -23, -9, -41, -29, -33%. Right below that you had Moana up 3%, Sing up 13% and Rogue One down 26%.

In this particular case, with so much interest and very small drops from Saturday to Sunday, dropping by around 1/3 doesn't sound too unrealistic. Who knows, maybe even something slightly better than that.

I don't think such a period ever really existed. The only case of a slow-down might have been Thor 2's rather modest increase, but that was an exception. At that point, most of these movies just got their big boost from The Avengers.
I wouldn't exactly call it diversifying either. All that has really changed is that they added the second wave of characters. The movies themself didn't change all that much.

 

Deadline - ‘Black Panther’ Goes Wild: 2nd Best Sunday $59M+; 3-Day $201M+; 4-Day To Shred ‘Jurassic World’ & Possibly ‘Last Jedi’

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

 

So with 200M 3 day opening instead of 4 day, BP has a better shot at hitting 600M as @jaqen and I discussed in previous pages. All movies that had 200M opening weekend (3 day) crossed the mark. And with the rest of February and almost all of March (til Ready Player One) looking either rancid (wannabe blockbusters) or counter-programming, Black Panther should have really nice legs due to stellar WOM.

 

Impressive i must admit it. I don't get how it happened but i'm impress. In France BP just took the 4th place

 

Really?
From what I've heard so far, Black Panther seems to be no.1 for the weekend with 1.1m admissions, followed by Les Tuche 3 with 950k and Fifty Shades of Grey 3 with 780k.

France will definately end up with a rather generic result though. Marvel simply doesn't matter enough to get great results. Same is true in quite a few other countries in Europe. In Portugal and Germany it started behind FsoG3's second weekend.

 

TLJ is going above $618 M in N.A. this weekend. Not bad at all.

 

Those films have been made before though. Every time you see a film with a predominately black cast, it is about slavery, historical Africa or an urban setting. Black Panther breaks that mold, and that's why it is huge.

 

Fantastic. I’m all for this.

Oh, and it still is second to TLJ. Which goes to show that even with it being a Zeitgeist movie and a Marvel movie at that, BP still finished second to TLJ.

But like I said, I’m very happy that it’s done so well out of the gate.


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